smoke_test.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Smoke Test for Chronos 2 Zero-Shot Inference
Tests: 1 border × 7 days (168 hours)
"""

import time
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import polars as pl
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from chronos import Chronos2Pipeline
import torch

print("="*60)
print("CHRONOS 2 ZERO-SHOT INFERENCE - SMOKE TEST")
print("="*60)

# Step 1: Load dataset
print("\n[1/6] Loading dataset from HuggingFace...")
start_time = time.time()

from datasets import load_dataset
import os

# Use HF token for private dataset access
hf_token = "<HF_TOKEN>"

dataset = load_dataset(
    "evgueni-p/fbmc-features-24month",
    split="train",
    token=hf_token
)
df = pl.from_pandas(dataset.to_pandas())

# Ensure timestamp is datetime (check if conversion needed)
if df['timestamp'].dtype == pl.String:
    df = df.with_columns(pl.col('timestamp').str.to_datetime())
elif df['timestamp'].dtype != pl.Datetime:
    df = df.with_columns(pl.col('timestamp').cast(pl.Datetime))

print(f"[OK] Loaded {len(df)} rows, {len(df.columns)} columns")
print(f"     Date range: {df['timestamp'].min()} to {df['timestamp'].max()}")
print(f"     Load time: {time.time() - start_time:.1f}s")

# Step 2: Identify target borders
print("\n[2/6] Identifying target borders...")
target_cols = [col for col in df.columns if col.startswith('target_border_')]
borders = [col.replace('target_border_', '') for col in target_cols]
print(f"[OK] Found {len(borders)} borders")

# Select first border for test
test_border = borders[0]
print(f"[*] Test border: {test_border}")

# Step 3: Prepare test data
print("\n[3/6] Preparing test data...")
# Use last available date as forecast date
forecast_date = df['timestamp'].max()
context_hours = 512
prediction_hours = 168  # 7 days

# Get context data
context_start = forecast_date - timedelta(hours=context_hours)
context_df = df.filter(
    (pl.col('timestamp') >= context_start) &
    (pl.col('timestamp') < forecast_date)
)

print(f"[OK] Context: {len(context_df)} hours ({context_start} to {forecast_date})")

# Prepare context DataFrame for Chronos
target_col = f'target_border_{test_border}'
context_data = context_df.select([
    'timestamp',
    pl.lit(test_border).alias('border'),
    pl.col(target_col).alias('target')
]).to_pandas()

# Simple future covariates (just timestamp and border for smoke test)
future_timestamps = pd.date_range(
    start=forecast_date,
    periods=prediction_hours,
    freq='H'
)
future_data = pd.DataFrame({
    'timestamp': future_timestamps,
    'border': [test_border] * prediction_hours,
    'target': [np.nan] * prediction_hours  # NaN for future values to predict
})

print(f"[OK] Future: {len(future_data)} hours")
print(f"     Context shape: {context_data.shape}")
print(f"     Future shape: {future_data.shape}")

# Step 4: Load model
print("\n[4/6] Loading Chronos 2 model on GPU...")
model_start = time.time()

pipeline = Chronos2Pipeline.from_pretrained(
    'amazon/chronos-2',
    device_map='cuda',
    dtype=torch.float32
)

model_time = time.time() - model_start
print(f"[OK] Model loaded in {model_time:.1f}s")
print(f"     Device: {next(pipeline.model.parameters()).device}")

# Step 5: Run inference
print(f"\n[5/6] Running zero-shot inference...")
print(f"      Border: {test_border}")
print(f"      Prediction: {prediction_hours} hours (7 days)")
print(f"      Samples: 100 (for probabilistic forecast)")

inference_start = time.time()

try:
    # Combine context and future data
    combined_df = pd.concat([context_data, future_data], ignore_index=True)

    forecasts = pipeline.predict_df(
        df=combined_df,
        prediction_length=prediction_hours,
        id_column='border',
        timestamp_column='timestamp',
        target='target'
    )

    inference_time = time.time() - inference_start

    print(f"[OK] Inference complete in {inference_time:.1f}s")
    print(f"     Forecast shape: {forecasts.shape}")

    # Step 6: Validate results
    print("\n[6/6] Validating results...")

    # Check for NaN values
    nan_count = forecasts.isna().sum().sum()
    print(f"     NaN values: {nan_count}")

    if 'mean' in forecasts.columns:
        mean_forecast = forecasts['mean']
        print(f"     Forecast statistics:")
        print(f"       Mean: {mean_forecast.mean():.2f} MW")
        print(f"       Min: {mean_forecast.min():.2f} MW")
        print(f"       Max: {mean_forecast.max():.2f} MW")
        print(f"       Std: {mean_forecast.std():.2f} MW")

        # Sanity checks
        if mean_forecast.min() < 0:
            print("     [!] WARNING: Negative forecasts detected")
        if mean_forecast.max() > 20000:
            print("     [!] WARNING: Unreasonably high forecasts")
        if nan_count == 0 and mean_forecast.min() >= 0 and mean_forecast.max() < 20000:
            print("     [OK] Validation passed!")

    # Performance summary
    print("\n" + "="*60)
    print("SMOKE TEST SUMMARY")
    print("="*60)
    print(f"Border tested: {test_border}")
    print(f"Forecast length: {prediction_hours} hours (7 days)")
    print(f"Inference time: {inference_time:.1f}s")
    print(f"Speed: {prediction_hours / inference_time:.1f} hours/second")

    # Estimate full run time
    total_borders = len(borders)
    full_forecast_hours = 336  # 14 days
    estimated_time = (inference_time / prediction_hours) * full_forecast_hours * total_borders
    print(f"\nEstimated time for full run:")
    print(f"  {total_borders} borders × {full_forecast_hours} hours")
    print(f"  = {estimated_time / 60:.1f} minutes ({estimated_time / 3600:.1f} hours)")

    # Target check
    if inference_time < 300:  # 5 minutes
        print(f"\n[OK] Performance target met! (<5 min for 7-day forecast)")
    else:
        print(f"\n[!] Performance slower than target (expected <5 min)")

    print("="*60)
    print("[OK] SMOKE TEST PASSED!")
    print("="*60)

except Exception as e:
    print(f"\n[ERROR] Inference failed: {e}")
    import traceback
    traceback.print_exc()
    exit(1)

# Total time
total_time = time.time() - start_time
print(f"\nTotal test time: {total_time:.1f}s ({total_time / 60:.1f} min)")