Daily Papers

We apply supervised deep neural networks (DNNs) for pricing and calibration of both vanilla and exotic options under both diffusion and pure jump processes with and without stochastic volatility. We train our neural network models under different number of layers, neurons per layer, and various different activation functions in order to find which combinations work better empirically. For training, we consider various different loss functions and optimization routines. We demonstrate that deep neural networks exponentially expedite option pricing compared to commonly used option pricing methods which consequently make calibration and parameter estimation super fast.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via either Monte Carlo or expectation-maximization methods. In this work we introduce an alternative, variational inference algorithm for Markov jump processes which relies on neural ordinary differential equations, and is trainable via back-propagation. Our methodology learns neural, continuous-time representations of the observed data, that are used to approximate the initial distribution and time-dependent transition probability rates of the posterior Markov jump process. The time-independent rates of the prior process are in contrast trained akin to generative adversarial networks. We test our approach on synthetic data sampled from ground-truth Markov jump processes, experimental switching ion channel data and molecular dynamics simulations. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

Learning to denoise has emerged as a prominent paradigm to design state-of-the-art deep generative models for natural images. How to use it to model the distributions of both continuous real-valued data and categorical data has been well studied in recently proposed diffusion models. However, it is found in this paper to have limited ability in modeling some other types of data, such as count and non-negative continuous data, that are often highly sparse, skewed, heavy-tailed, and/or overdispersed. To this end, we propose learning to jump as a general recipe for generative modeling of various types of data. Using a forward count thinning process to construct learning objectives to train a deep neural network, it employs a reverse count thickening process to iteratively refine its generation through that network. We demonstrate when learning to jump is expected to perform comparably to learning to denoise, and when it is expected to perform better. For example, learning to jump is recommended when the training data is non-negative and exhibits strong sparsity, skewness, heavy-tailedness, and/or heterogeneity.

Process reward models (PRMs) have proven effective for test-time scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) on challenging reasoning tasks. However, reward hacking issues with PRMs limit their successful application in reinforcement fine-tuning. In this paper, we identify the main cause of PRM-induced reward hacking: the canonical summation-form credit assignment in reinforcement learning (RL), which defines the value as cumulative gamma-decayed future rewards, easily induces LLMs to hack steps with high rewards. To address this, we propose PURE: Process sUpervised Reinforcement lEarning. The key innovation of PURE is a min-form credit assignment that formulates the value function as the minimum of future rewards. This method significantly alleviates reward hacking by limiting the value function range and distributing advantages more reasonably. Through extensive experiments on 3 base models, we show that PRM-based approaches enabling min-form credit assignment achieve comparable reasoning performance to verifiable reward-based methods within only 30% steps. In contrast, the canonical sum-form credit assignment collapses training even at the beginning! Additionally, when we supplement PRM-based fine-tuning with just 10% verifiable rewards, we further alleviate reward hacking and produce the best fine-tuned model based on Qwen2.5-Math-7B in our experiments, achieving 82.5% accuracy on AMC23 and 53.3% average accuracy across 5 benchmarks. Moreover, we summarize the observed reward hacking cases and analyze the causes of training collapse. Code and models are available at https://github.com/CJReinforce/PURE.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended beta-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.

We introduce a mathematically rigorous framework based on rough path theory to model stochastic spiking neural networks (SSNNs) as stochastic differential equations with event discontinuities (Event SDEs) and driven by c\`adl\`ag rough paths. Our formalism is general enough to allow for potential jumps to be present both in the solution trajectories as well as in the driving noise. We then identify a set of sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of pathwise gradients of solution trajectories and event times with respect to the network's parameters and show how these gradients satisfy a recursive relation. Furthermore, we introduce a general-purpose loss function defined by means of a new class of signature kernels indexed on c\`adl\`ag rough paths and use it to train SSNNs as generative models. We provide an end-to-end autodifferentiable solver for Event SDEs and make its implementation available as part of the diffrax library. Our framework is, to our knowledge, the first enabling gradient-based training of SSNNs with noise affecting both the spike timing and the network's dynamics.

Despite the success of adaptive time-stepping in ODE simulation, it has so far seen few applications for Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs). To simulate SDEs adaptively, methods such as the Virtual Brownian Tree (VBT) have been developed, which can generate Brownian motion (BM) non-chronologically. However, in most applications, knowing only the values of Brownian motion is not enough to achieve a high order of convergence; for that, we must compute time-integrals of BM such as int_s^t W_r , dr. With the aim of using high order SDE solvers adaptively, we extend the VBT to generate these integrals of BM in addition to the Brownian increments. A JAX-based implementation of our construction is included in the popular Diffrax library (https://github.com/patrick-kidger/diffrax). Since the entire Brownian path produced by VBT is uniquely determined by a single PRNG seed, previously generated samples need not be stored, which results in a constant memory footprint and enables experiment repeatability and strong error estimation. Based on binary search, the VBT's time complexity is logarithmic in the tolerance parameter varepsilon. Unlike the original VBT algorithm, which was only precise at some dyadic times, we prove that our construction exactly matches the joint distribution of the Brownian motion and its time integrals at any query times, provided they are at least varepsilon apart. We present two applications of adaptive high order solvers enabled by our new VBT. Using adaptive solvers to simulate a high-volatility CIR model, we achieve more than twice the convergence order of constant stepping. We apply an adaptive third order underdamped or kinetic Langevin solver to an MCMC problem, where our approach outperforms the No U-Turn Sampler, while using only a tenth of its function evaluations.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Diffusion-based stylization methods typically denoise from a specific partial noise state for image-to-image and video-to-video tasks. This multi-step diffusion process is computationally expensive and hinders real-world application. A promising solution to speed up the process is to obtain few-step consistency models through trajectory distillation. However, current consistency models only force the initial-step alignment between the probability flow ODE (PF-ODE) trajectories of the student and the imperfect teacher models. This training strategy can not ensure the consistency of whole trajectories. To address this issue, we propose single trajectory distillation (STD) starting from a specific partial noise state. We introduce a trajectory bank to store the teacher model's trajectory states, mitigating the time cost during training. Besides, we use an asymmetric adversarial loss to enhance the style and quality of the generated images. Extensive experiments on image and video stylization demonstrate that our method surpasses existing acceleration models in terms of style similarity and aesthetic evaluations. Our code and results will be available on the project page: https://single-trajectory-distillation.github.io.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

We introduce Functional Diffusion Processes (FDPs), which generalize score-based diffusion models to infinite-dimensional function spaces. FDPs require a new mathematical framework to describe the forward and backward dynamics, and several extensions to derive practical training objectives. These include infinite-dimensional versions of Girsanov theorem, in order to be able to compute an ELBO, and of the sampling theorem, in order to guarantee that functional evaluations in a countable set of points are equivalent to infinite-dimensional functions. We use FDPs to build a new breed of generative models in function spaces, which do not require specialized network architectures, and that can work with any kind of continuous data. Our results on real data show that FDPs achieve high-quality image generation, using a simple MLP architecture with orders of magnitude fewer parameters than existing diffusion models.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

The study of the long-time dynamics of quantum systems can be a real challenge, especially in systems like ultracold gases, where the required timescales may be longer than the lifetime of the system itself. In this work, we show that it is possible to access the long-time dynamics of a strongly repulsive atomic gas mixture in shorter times. The shortcut-to-dynamics protocol that we propose does not modify the fate of the observables, but effectively jumps ahead in time without changing the system's inherent evolution. Just like the next-chapter button in a movie player that allows to quickly reach the part of the movie one wants to watch, it is a leap into the future.

In this paper we consider a particular class of solutions of the Rayleigh-Boltzmann equation, known in the nonlinear setting as homoenergetic solutions, which have the form gleft( x,v,t right) =fleft( v-Lleft( tright)x,tright) where the matrix L(t) describes a shear flow deformation. We began this analysis in [22] where we rigorously proved the existence of a stationary non-equilibrium solution and established the different behaviour of the solutions for small and large values of the shear parameter, for cut-off collision kernels with homogeneity parameter 0leq gamma <1, including Maxwell molecules and hard potentials. In this paper, we concentrate in the case where the deformation term dominates the collision term for large times (hyperbolic-dominated regime). This occurs for collision kernels with gamma < 0 and in particular we focus on gamma in (-1,0). In such a hyperbolic-dominated regime, it appears challenging to provide a clear description of the long-term asymptotics of the solutions. Here we present a formal analysis of the long-time asymptotics for the distribution of velocities and provide the explicit form for the asymptotic profile. Additionally, we discuss the different asymptotic behaviour expected in the case of homogeneity gamma < -1. Furthermore, we provide a probabilistic interpretation describing a stochastic process consisting in a combination of collisions and shear flows. The tagged particle velocity {v(t)}_{tgeq 0} is a Markov process that arises from the combination of free flights in a shear flow along with random jumps caused by collisions.

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between observed trajectories and the predictions of deterministic models, hampering the task of planning to ensure safe separation. In this paper a probabilistic model is presented, for the purpose of emulating the trajectories of aircraft in climb and bounding the uncertainty of the predicted trajectory. A monotonic, functional representation exploits the spatio-temporal correlations in the radar observations. Through the use of Gaussian Process Emulators, features that parameterise the climb are mapped directly to functional outputs, providing a fast approximation, while ensuring that the resulting trajectory is monotonic. The model was applied as a probabilistic digital twin for aircraft in climb and baselined against BADA, a deterministic model widely used in industry. When applied to an unseen test dataset, the probabilistic model was found to provide a mean prediction that was 21% more accurate, with a 34% sharper forecast.

We present an ultra-efficient post-training method for shortcutting large-scale pre-trained flow matching diffusion models into efficient few-step samplers, enabled by novel velocity field self-distillation. While shortcutting in flow matching, originally introduced by shortcut models, offers flexible trajectory-skipping capabilities, it requires a specialized step-size embedding incompatible with existing models unless retraining from scratchx2013a process nearly as costly as pretraining itself. Our key contribution is thus imparting a more aggressive shortcut mechanism to standard flow matching models (e.g., Flux), leveraging a unique distillation principle that obviates the need for step-size embedding. Working on the velocity field rather than sample space and learning rapidly from self-guided distillation in an online manner, our approach trains efficiently, e.g., producing a 3-step Flux less than one A100 day. Beyond distillation, our method can be incorporated into the pretraining stage itself, yielding models that inherently learn efficient, few-step flows without compromising quality. This capability also enables, to our knowledge, the first few-shot distillation method (e.g., 10 text-image pairs) for dozen-billion-parameter diffusion models, delivering state-of-the-art performance at almost free cost.

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

We address the problem of optimizing a Brownian motion. We consider a (random) realization W of a Brownian motion with input space in [0,1]. Given W, our goal is to return an ε-approximation of its maximum using the smallest possible number of function evaluations, the sample complexity of the algorithm. We provide an algorithm with sample complexity of order log^2(1/ε). This improves over previous results of Al-Mharmah and Calvin (1996) and Calvin et al. (2017) which provided only polynomial rates. Our algorithm is adaptive---each query depends on previous values---and is an instance of the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle.

Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a strategy for accelerating saddle point searches on high-dimensional energy surfaces by reducing the number of times the energy and its derivatives with respect to atomic coordinates need to be evaluated. The computational overhead in the hyperparameter optimization can, however, be large and make the approach inefficient. Failures can also occur if the search ventures too far into regions that are not represented well enough by the GP model. Here, these challenges are resolved by using geometry-aware optimal transport measures and an active pruning strategy using a summation over Wasserstein-1 distances for each atom-type in farthest-point sampling, selecting a fixed-size subset of geometrically diverse configurations to avoid rapidly increasing cost of GP updates as more observations are made. Stability is enhanced by permutation-invariant metric that provides a reliable trust radius for early-stopping and a logarithmic barrier penalty for the growth of the signal variance. These physically motivated algorithmic changes prove their efficacy by reducing to less than a half the mean computational time on a set of 238 challenging configurations from a previously published data set of chemical reactions. With these improvements, the GP approach is established as, a robust and scalable algorithm for accelerating saddle point searches when the evaluation of the energy and atomic forces requires significant computational effort.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

The present work investigates two properties of level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process X(t) with autocorrelation function R_X(tau). We show firstly that if R_X(tau) admits finite second and fourth derivatives at the origin, the length of up-excursions above a large negative level -gamma is asymptotically exponential as -gamma to -infty. Secondly, assuming that R_X(tau) admits a finite second derivative at the origin and some defined properties, we derive the mean number of crossings as well as the length of successive excursions above two subsequent large levels. The asymptotic results are shown to be effective even for moderate values of crossing level. An application of the developed results is proposed to derive the probability of successive excursions above adjacent levels during a time window.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Designing biological sequences is an important challenge that requires satisfying complex constraints and thus is a natural problem to address with deep generative modeling. Diffusion generative models have achieved considerable success in many applications. Score-based generative stochastic differential equations (SDE) model is a continuous-time diffusion model framework that enjoys many benefits, but the originally proposed SDEs are not naturally designed for modeling discrete data. To develop generative SDE models for discrete data such as biological sequences, here we introduce a diffusion process defined in the probability simplex space with stationary distribution being the Dirichlet distribution. This makes diffusion in continuous space natural for modeling discrete data. We refer to this approach as Dirchlet diffusion score model. We demonstrate that this technique can generate samples that satisfy hard constraints using a Sudoku generation task. This generative model can also solve Sudoku, including hard puzzles, without additional training. Finally, we applied this approach to develop the first human promoter DNA sequence design model and showed that designed sequences share similar properties with natural promoter sequences.

We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.

Diffusion models achieved great success in image synthesis, but still face challenges in high-resolution generation. Through the lens of discrete cosine transformation, we find the main reason is that the same noise level on a higher resolution results in a higher Signal-to-Noise Ratio in the frequency domain. In this work, we present Relay Diffusion Model (RDM), which transfers a low-resolution image or noise into an equivalent high-resolution one for diffusion model via blurring diffusion and block noise. Therefore, the diffusion process can continue seamlessly in any new resolution or model without restarting from pure noise or low-resolution conditioning. RDM achieves state-of-the-art FID on CelebA-HQ and sFID on ImageNet 256times256, surpassing previous works such as ADM, LDM and DiT by a large margin. All the codes and checkpoints are open-sourced at https://github.com/THUDM/RelayDiffusion.

Aiming to produce reinforcement learning (RL) policies that are human-interpretable and can generalize better to novel scenarios, Trivedi et al. (2021) present a method (LEAPS) that first learns a program embedding space to continuously parameterize diverse programs from a pre-generated program dataset, and then searches for a task-solving program in the learned program embedding space when given a task. Despite the encouraging results, the program policies that LEAPS can produce are limited by the distribution of the program dataset. Furthermore, during searching, LEAPS evaluates each candidate program solely based on its return, failing to precisely reward correct parts of programs and penalize incorrect parts. To address these issues, we propose to learn a meta-policy that composes a series of programs sampled from the learned program embedding space. By learning to compose programs, our proposed hierarchical programmatic reinforcement learning (HPRL) framework can produce program policies that describe out-of-distributionally complex behaviors and directly assign credits to programs that induce desired behaviors. The experimental results in the Karel domain show that our proposed framework outperforms baselines. The ablation studies confirm the limitations of LEAPS and justify our design choices.

Recent ODE/SDE-based generative models, such as diffusion models, rectified flows, and flow matching, define a generative process as a time reversal of a fixed forward process. Even though these models show impressive performance on large-scale datasets, numerical simulation requires multiple evaluations of a neural network, leading to a slow sampling speed. We attribute the reason to the high curvature of the learned generative trajectories, as it is directly related to the truncation error of a numerical solver. Based on the relationship between the forward process and the curvature, here we present an efficient method of training the forward process to minimize the curvature of generative trajectories without any ODE/SDE simulation. Experiments show that our method achieves a lower curvature than previous models and, therefore, decreased sampling costs while maintaining competitive performance. Code is available at https://github.com/sangyun884/fast-ode.

Diffusion models, which employ stochastic differential equations to sample images through integrals, have emerged as a dominant class of generative models. However, the rationality of the diffusion process itself receives limited attention, leaving the question of whether the problem is well-posed and well-conditioned. In this paper, we uncover a vexing propensity of diffusion models: they frequently exhibit the infinite Lipschitz near the zero point of timesteps. This poses a threat to the stability and accuracy of the diffusion process, which relies on integral operations. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of the issue from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, dubbed E-TSDM, which eliminates the Lipschitz singularity of the diffusion model near zero. Remarkably, our technique yields a substantial improvement in performance, e.g., on the high-resolution FFHQ dataset (256times256). Moreover, as a byproduct of our method, we manage to achieve a dramatic reduction in the Frechet Inception Distance of other acceleration methods relying on network Lipschitz, including DDIM and DPM-Solver, by over 33%. We conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets to validate our theory and method. Our work not only advances the understanding of the general diffusion process, but also provides insights for the design of diffusion models.

Diffusion-based video generation can create realistic videos, yet existing image- and text-based conditioning fails to offer precise motion control. Prior methods for motion-conditioned synthesis typically require model-specific fine-tuning, which is computationally expensive and restrictive. We introduce Time-to-Move (TTM), a training-free, plug-and-play framework for motion- and appearance-controlled video generation with image-to-video (I2V) diffusion models. Our key insight is to use crude reference animations obtained through user-friendly manipulations such as cut-and-drag or depth-based reprojection. Motivated by SDEdit's use of coarse layout cues for image editing, we treat the crude animations as coarse motion cues and adapt the mechanism to the video domain. We preserve appearance with image conditioning and introduce dual-clock denoising, a region-dependent strategy that enforces strong alignment in motion-specified regions while allowing flexibility elsewhere, balancing fidelity to user intent with natural dynamics. This lightweight modification of the sampling process incurs no additional training or runtime cost and is compatible with any backbone. Extensive experiments on object and camera motion benchmarks show that TTM matches or exceeds existing training-based baselines in realism and motion control. Beyond this, TTM introduces a unique capability: precise appearance control through pixel-level conditioning, exceeding the limits of text-only prompting. Visit our project page for video examples and code: https://time-to-move.github.io/.

Majorities of distillation methods on pre-trained diffusion models or on pre-trained rectified flow, focus on either the distillation outputs or the trajectories between random noises and clean images to speed up sample generations from pre-trained models. In those trajectory-based distillation methods, consistency distillation requires the self-consistent trajectory projection to regulate the trajectory, which might avoid the common ODE approximation error {while still be concerning about sampling efficiencies}. At the same time, rectified flow distillations enforce straight trajectory for fast sampling, although an ODE solver is still required. In this work, we propose a trajectory distillation method, \modelname, that enjoys the benefits of both and enables few-step generations. TraFlow adopts the settings of consistency trajectory models, and further enforces the properties of self-consistency and straightness throughout the entire trajectory. These two properties are pursued by reaching a balance with following three targets: (1) reconstruct the output from pre-trained models; (2) learn the amount of changes by pre-trained models; (3) satisfy the self-consistency over its trajectory. Extensive experimental results have shown the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved state-of-the-art synthesis results on diverse tasks. However, the current design space of the forward diffusion process is largely unexplored and often relies on physical intuition or simplifying assumptions. Leveraging results from the design of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for constructing forward processes in SGMs, all of which are guaranteed to converge to the target distribution of interest. We show that several existing SGMs can be cast as specific instantiations of this parameterization. Furthermore, building on this recipe, we construct a novel SGM: Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which performs score-based modeling in a space augmented with auxiliary variables akin to a physical phase space. We show that PSLD outperforms competing baselines in terms of sample quality and the speed-vs-quality tradeoff across different samplers on various standard image synthesis benchmarks. Moreover, we show that PSLD achieves sample quality comparable to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 on unconditional CIFAR-10 generation), providing an attractive alternative as an SGM backbone for further development. We will publish our code and model checkpoints for reproducibility at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Effective control and prediction of dynamical systems often require appropriate handling of continuous-time and discrete, event-triggered processes. Stochastic hybrid systems (SHSs), common across engineering domains, provide a formalism for dynamical systems subject to discrete, possibly stochastic, state jumps and multi-modal continuous-time flows. Despite the versatility and importance of SHSs across applications, a general procedure for the explicit learning of both discrete events and multi-mode continuous dynamics remains an open problem. This work introduces Neural Hybrid Automata (NHAs), a recipe for learning SHS dynamics without a priori knowledge on the number of modes and inter-modal transition dynamics. NHAs provide a systematic inference method based on normalizing flows, neural differential equations and self-supervision. We showcase NHAs on several tasks, including mode recovery and flow learning in systems with stochastic transitions, and end-to-end learning of hierarchical robot controllers.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.