Daily Papers

Developing autonomous LLM agents capable of making a series of intelligent decisions to solve complex, real-world tasks is a fast-evolving frontier. Like human cognitive development, agents are expected to acquire knowledge and skills through exploration and interaction with the environment. Despite advances, the community still lacks a unified, interactive reinforcement learning (RL) framework that can effectively train such agents from scratch -- without relying on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) -- across diverse and realistic environments. To bridge this gap, we introduce AgentGym-RL, a new framework to train LLM agents for multi-turn interactive decision-making through RL. The framework features a modular and decoupled architecture, ensuring high flexibility and extensibility. It encompasses a wide variety of real-world scenarios, and supports mainstream RL algorithms. Furthermore, we propose ScalingInter-RL, a training approach designed for exploration-exploitation balance and stable RL optimization. In early stages, it emphasizes exploitation by restricting the number of interactions, and gradually shifts towards exploration with larger horizons to encourage diverse problem-solving strategies. In this way, the agent develops more diverse behaviors and is less prone to collapse under long horizons. We perform extensive experiments to validate the stability and effectiveness of both the AgentGym-RL framework and the ScalingInter-RL approach. Our agents match or surpass commercial models on 27 tasks across diverse environments. We offer key insights and will open-source the complete AgentGym-RL framework -- including code and datasets -- to empower the research community in developing the next generation of intelligent agents.

We present Mini-BEHAVIOR, a novel benchmark for embodied AI that challenges agents to use reasoning and decision-making skills to solve complex activities that resemble everyday human challenges. The Mini-BEHAVIOR environment is a fast, realistic Gridworld environment that offers the benefits of rapid prototyping and ease of use while preserving a symbolic level of physical realism and complexity found in complex embodied AI benchmarks. We introduce key features such as procedural generation, to enable the creation of countless task variations and support open-ended learning. Mini-BEHAVIOR provides implementations of various household tasks from the original BEHAVIOR benchmark, along with starter code for data collection and reinforcement learning agent training. In essence, Mini-BEHAVIOR offers a fast, open-ended benchmark for evaluating decision-making and planning solutions in embodied AI. It serves as a user-friendly entry point for research and facilitates the evaluation and development of solutions, simplifying their assessment and development while advancing the field of embodied AI. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/StanfordVL/mini_behavior.

While showing sophisticated reasoning abilities, large language models (LLMs) still struggle with long-horizon decision-making tasks due to deficient exploration and long-term credit assignment, especially in sparse-reward scenarios. Inspired by the divide-and-conquer principle, we propose an innovative framework **GLIDER** (**G**rounding **L**anguage Models as Eff**I**cient **D**ecision-Making Agents via Offline Hi**E**rarchical **R**einforcement Learning) that introduces a parameter-efficient and generally applicable hierarchy to LLM policies. We develop a scheme where the low-level controller is supervised with abstract, step-by-step plans that are learned and instructed by the high-level policy. This design decomposes complicated problems into a series of coherent chain-of-thought reasoning sub-tasks, providing flexible temporal abstraction to significantly enhance exploration and learning for long-horizon tasks. Furthermore, GLIDER facilitates fast online adaptation to non-stationary environments owing to the strong transferability of its task-agnostic low-level skills. Experiments on ScienceWorld and ALFWorld benchmarks show that GLIDER achieves consistent performance gains, along with enhanced generalization capabilities.

Long-horizon decision-making tasks present significant challenges for LLM-based agents due to the need for extensive planning over multiple steps. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical framework that decomposes complex tasks into manageable subgoals, utilizing separate LLMs for subgoal prediction and low-level action generation. To address the challenge of creating training signals for unannotated datasets, we develop a reward model that leverages multimodal environment feedback to automatically generate reward signals. We introduce Environment Preference Optimization (EPO), a novel method that generates preference signals from the environment's feedback and uses them to train LLM-based agents. Extensive experiments on ALFRED demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our framework, achieving first place on the ALFRED public leaderboard and showcasing its potential to improve long-horizon decision-making in diverse environments.

Hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) can accelerate long-horizon decision-making by temporally abstracting a policy into multiple levels. Promising results in sparse reward environments have been seen with skills, i.e. sequences of primitive actions. Typically, a skill latent space and policy are discovered from offline data, but the resulting low-level policy can be unreliable due to low-coverage demonstrations or distribution shifts. As a solution, we propose fine-tuning the low-level policy in conjunction with high-level skill selection. Our Skill-Critic algorithm optimizes both the low and high-level policies; these policies are also initialized and regularized by the latent space learned from offline demonstrations to guide the joint policy optimization. We validate our approach in multiple sparse RL environments, including a new sparse reward autonomous racing task in Gran Turismo Sport. The experiments show that Skill-Critic's low-level policy fine-tuning and demonstration-guided regularization are essential for optimal performance. Images and videos are available at https://sites.google.com/view/skill-critic. We plan to open source the code with the final version.

Hierarchical Imitation Learning (HIL) is a promising approach for tackling long-horizon decision-making tasks. While it is a challenging task due to the lack of detailed supervisory labels for sub-goal learning, and reliance on hundreds to thousands of expert demonstrations. In this work, we introduce SEAL, a novel framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs)'s powerful semantic and world knowledge for both specifying sub-goal space and pre-labeling states to semantically meaningful sub-goal representations without prior knowledge of task hierarchies. SEAL employs a dual-encoder structure, combining supervised LLM-guided sub-goal learning with unsupervised Vector Quantization (VQ) for more robust sub-goal representations. Additionally, SEAL incorporates a transition-augmented low-level planner for improved adaptation to sub-goal transitions. Our experiments demonstrate that SEAL outperforms state-of-the-art HIL methods and LLM-based planning approaches, particularly in settings with small expert datasets and complex long-horizon tasks.

Training large language models (LLMs) as interactive agents presents unique challenges including long-horizon decision making and interacting with stochastic environment feedback. While reinforcement learning (RL) has enabled progress in static tasks, multi-turn agent RL training remains underexplored. We propose StarPO (State-Thinking-Actions-Reward Policy Optimization), a general framework for trajectory-level agent RL, and introduce RAGEN, a modular system for training and evaluating LLM agents. Our study on three stylized environments reveals three core findings. First, our agent RL training shows a recurring mode of Echo Trap where reward variance cliffs and gradient spikes; we address this with StarPO-S, a stabilized variant with trajectory filtering, critic incorporation, and decoupled clipping. Second, we find the shaping of RL rollouts would benefit from diverse initial states, medium interaction granularity and more frequent sampling. Third, we show that without fine-grained, reasoning-aware reward signals, agent reasoning hardly emerge through multi-turn RL and they may show shallow strategies or hallucinated thoughts. Code and environments are available at https://github.com/RAGEN-AI/RAGEN.

While reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated remarkable success in enhancing large language models (LLMs), it has primarily focused on single-turn tasks such as solving math problems. Training effective web agents for multi-turn interactions remains challenging due to the complexity of long-horizon decision-making across dynamic web interfaces. In this work, we present WebAgent-R1, a simple yet effective end-to-end multi-turn RL framework for training web agents. It learns directly from online interactions with web environments by asynchronously generating diverse trajectories, entirely guided by binary rewards depending on task success. Experiments on the WebArena-Lite benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of WebAgent-R1, boosting the task success rate of Qwen-2.5-3B from 6.1% to 33.9% and Llama-3.1-8B from 8.5% to 44.8%, significantly outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods and strong proprietary models such as OpenAI o3. In-depth analyses reveal the effectiveness of the thinking-based prompting strategy and test-time scaling through increased interactions for web tasks. We further investigate different RL initialization policies by introducing two variants, namely WebAgent-R1-Zero and WebAgent-R1-CoT, which highlight the importance of the warm-up training stage (i.e., behavior cloning) and provide insights on incorporating long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning in web agents.

The ability to plan actions on multiple levels of abstraction enables intelligent agents to solve complex tasks effectively. However, learning the models for both low and high-level planning from demonstrations has proven challenging, especially with higher-dimensional inputs. To address this issue, we propose to use reinforcement learning to identify subgoals in expert trajectories by associating the magnitude of the rewards with the predictability of low-level actions given the state and the chosen subgoal. We build a vector-quantized generative model for the identified subgoals to perform subgoal-level planning. In experiments, the algorithm excels at solving complex, long-horizon decision-making problems outperforming state-of-the-art. Because of its ability to plan, our algorithm can find better trajectories than the ones in the training set

Model-based reinforcement learning methods often use learning only for the purpose of estimating an approximate dynamics model, offloading the rest of the decision-making work to classical trajectory optimizers. While conceptually simple, this combination has a number of empirical shortcomings, suggesting that learned models may not be well-suited to standard trajectory optimization. In this paper, we consider what it would look like to fold as much of the trajectory optimization pipeline as possible into the modeling problem, such that sampling from the model and planning with it become nearly identical. The core of our technical approach lies in a diffusion probabilistic model that plans by iteratively denoising trajectories. We show how classifier-guided sampling and image inpainting can be reinterpreted as coherent planning strategies, explore the unusual and useful properties of diffusion-based planning methods, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in control settings that emphasize long-horizon decision-making and test-time flexibility.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable advancements in tackling agent-oriented tasks. Despite their potential, existing work faces challenges when deploying LLMs in agent-based environments. The widely adopted agent paradigm ReAct centers on integrating single-step reasoning with immediate action execution, which limits its effectiveness in complex tasks requiring long-term strategic planning. Furthermore, the coordination between the planner and executor during problem-solving is also a critical factor to consider in agent design. Additionally, current approaches predominantly rely on supervised fine-tuning, which often leads models to memorize established task completion trajectories, thereby restricting their generalization ability when confronted with novel problem contexts. To address these challenges, we introduce an adaptive global plan-based agent paradigm AdaPlan, aiming to synergize high-level explicit guidance with execution to support effective long-horizon decision-making. Based on the proposed paradigm, we further put forward PilotRL, a global planning-guided training framework for LLM agents driven by progressive reinforcement learning. We first develop the model's ability to follow explicit guidance from global plans when addressing agent tasks. Subsequently, based on this foundation, we focus on optimizing the quality of generated plans. Finally, we conduct joint optimization of the model's planning and execution coordination. Experiments indicate that PilotRL could achieve state-of-the-art performances, with LLaMA3.1-8B-Instruct + PilotRL surpassing closed-sourced GPT-4o by 3.60%, while showing a more substantial gain of 55.78% comparing to GPT-4o-mini at a comparable parameter scale.

Process Reward Models (PRMs) are crucial in complex reasoning and problem-solving tasks (e.g., LLM agents with long-horizon decision-making) by verifying the correctness of each intermediate reasoning step. In real-world scenarios, LLMs may apply various reasoning patterns (e.g., decomposition) to solve a problem, potentially suffering from errors under various reasoning patterns. Therefore, PRMs are required to identify errors under various reasoning patterns during the reasoning process. However, existing benchmarks mainly focus on evaluating PRMs with stepwise correctness, ignoring a systematic evaluation of PRMs under various reasoning patterns. To mitigate this gap, we introduce Socratic-PRMBench, a new benchmark to evaluate PRMs systematically under six reasoning patterns, including Transformation, Decomposition, Regather, Deduction, Verification, and Integration. Socratic-PRMBench}comprises 2995 reasoning paths with flaws within the aforementioned six reasoning patterns. Through our experiments on both PRMs and LLMs prompted as critic models, we identify notable deficiencies in existing PRMs. These observations underscore the significant weakness of current PRMs in conducting evaluations on reasoning steps under various reasoning patterns. We hope Socratic-PRMBench can serve as a comprehensive testbed for systematic evaluation of PRMs under diverse reasoning patterns and pave the way for future development of PRMs.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) presents an attractive paradigm for training intelligent agents without expensive online interactions. However, current approaches still struggle with complex, long-horizon sequential decision making. In this work, we introduce DEtached value learning with Action Sequence (DEAS), a simple yet effective offline RL framework that leverages action sequences for value learning. These temporally extended actions provide richer information than single-step actions and can be interpreted through the options framework via semi-Markov decision process Q-learning, enabling reduction of the effective planning horizon by considering longer sequences at once. However, directly adopting such sequences in actor-critic algorithms introduces excessive value overestimation, which we address through detached value learning that steers value estimates toward in-distribution actions that achieve high return in the offline dataset. We demonstrate that DEAS consistently outperforms baselines on complex, long-horizon tasks from OGBench and can be applied to enhance the performance of large-scale Vision-Language-Action models that predict action sequences, significantly boosting performance in both RoboCasa Kitchen simulation tasks and real-world manipulation tasks.

Web navigation is a unique domain that can automate many repetitive real-life tasks and is challenging as it requires long-horizon sequential decision making beyond typical multimodal large language model (MLLM) tasks. Yet, specialized reward models for web navigation that can be utilized during both training and test-time have been absent until now. Despite the importance of speed and cost-effectiveness, prior works have utilized MLLMs as reward models, which poses significant constraints for real-world deployment. To address this, in this work, we propose the first process reward model (PRM) called Web-Shepherd which could assess web navigation trajectories in a step-level. To achieve this, we first construct the WebPRM Collection, a large-scale dataset with 40K step-level preference pairs and annotated checklists spanning diverse domains and difficulty levels. Next, we also introduce the WebRewardBench, the first meta-evaluation benchmark for evaluating PRMs. In our experiments, we observe that our Web-Shepherd achieves about 30 points better accuracy compared to using GPT-4o on WebRewardBench. Furthermore, when testing on WebArena-lite by using GPT-4o-mini as the policy and Web-Shepherd as the verifier, we achieve 10.9 points better performance, in 10 less cost compared to using GPT-4o-mini as the verifier. Our model, dataset, and code are publicly available at LINK.

Neural Language Models (LMs) offer an exciting solution for general-purpose embodied control. However, a key technical issue arises when using an LM-based controller: environment observations must be converted to text, which coupled with history, results in long and verbose textual prompts. As a result, prior work in LM agents is limited to restricted domains with small observation size as well as minimal needs for interaction history or instruction tuning. In this paper, we introduce diff history, a simple and highly effective solution to these issues. By applying the Unix diff command on consecutive text observations in the interaction histories used to prompt LM policies, we can both abstract away redundant information and focus the content of textual inputs on the salient changes in the environment. On NetHack, an unsolved video game that requires long-horizon reasoning for decision-making, LMs tuned with diff history match state-of-the-art performance for neural agents while needing 1800x fewer training examples compared to prior work. Even on the simpler BabyAI-Text environment with concise text observations, we find that although diff history increases the length of prompts, the representation it provides offers a 25% improvement in the efficiency of low-sample instruction tuning. Further, we show that diff history scales favorably across different tuning dataset sizes. We open-source our code and data to https://diffhistory.github.io.

A key objective of embodied intelligence is enabling agents to perform long-horizon tasks in dynamic environments while maintaining robust decision-making and adaptability. To achieve this goal, we propose the Spatio-Temporal Memory Agent (STMA), a novel framework designed to enhance task planning and execution by integrating spatio-temporal memory. STMA is built upon three critical components: (1) a spatio-temporal memory module that captures historical and environmental changes in real time, (2) a dynamic knowledge graph that facilitates adaptive spatial reasoning, and (3) a planner-critic mechanism that iteratively refines task strategies. We evaluate STMA in the TextWorld environment on 32 tasks, involving multi-step planning and exploration under varying levels of complexity. Experimental results demonstrate that STMA achieves a 31.25% improvement in success rate and a 24.7% increase in average score compared to the state-of-the-art model. The results highlight the effectiveness of spatio-temporal memory in advancing the memory capabilities of embodied agents.

Embodied Planning is dedicated to the goal of creating agents capable of executing long-horizon tasks in complex physical worlds. However, existing embodied planning benchmarks frequently feature short-horizon tasks and coarse-grained action primitives. To address this challenge, we introduce CookBench, a benchmark for long-horizon planning in complex cooking scenarios. By leveraging a high-fidelity simulation environment built upon the powerful Unity game engine, we define frontier AI challenges in a complex, realistic environment. The core task in CookBench is designed as a two-stage process. First, in Intention Recognition, an agent needs to accurately parse a user's complex intent. Second, in Embodied Interaction, the agent should execute the identified cooking goal through a long-horizon, fine-grained sequence of physical actions. Unlike existing embodied planning benchmarks, we refine the action granularity to a spatial level that considers crucial operational information while abstracting away low-level robotic control. Besides, We provide a comprehensive toolset that encapsulates the simulator. Its unified API supports both macro-level operations, such as placing orders and purchasing ingredients, and a rich set of fine-grained embodied actions for physical interaction, enabling researchers to focus on high-level planning and decision-making. Furthermore, we present an in-depth analysis of state-of-the-art, closed-source Large Language Model and Vision-Language Model, revealing their major shortcomings and challenges posed by complex, long-horizon tasks. The full benchmark will be open-sourced to facilitate future research.

Real-world robotic agents must act under partial observability and long horizons, where key cues may appear long before they affect decision making. However, most modern approaches rely solely on instantaneous information, without incorporating insights from the past. Standard recurrent or transformer models struggle with retaining and leveraging long-term dependencies: context windows truncate history, while naive memory extensions fail under scale and sparsity. We propose ELMUR (External Layer Memory with Update/Rewrite), a transformer architecture with structured external memory. Each layer maintains memory embeddings, interacts with them via bidirectional cross-attention, and updates them through an Least Recently Used (LRU) memory module using replacement or convex blending. ELMUR extends effective horizons up to 100,000 times beyond the attention window and achieves a 100% success rate on a synthetic T-Maze task with corridors up to one million steps. In POPGym, it outperforms baselines on more than half of the tasks. On MIKASA-Robo sparse-reward manipulation tasks with visual observations, it nearly doubles the performance of strong baselines. These results demonstrate that structured, layer-local external memory offers a simple and scalable approach to decision making under partial observability.

Recent studies have delved into constructing autonomous agents capable of performing complex Graphical User Interface (GUI)-based computer tasks, with the potential to revolutionize human-computer interaction. Despite encouraging results, existing efforts mainly focus on short-term interactions and rely on outcome-only verification, thereby limiting their scalability in real-world GUI applications that demand long-horizon task decomposition and execution. In this work, we introduce VeriGUI, a novel verifiable long-chain GUI dataset designed to facilitate the development and evaluation of generalist GUI agents operating in realistic computer environments. Our dataset emphasizes two critical dimensions: (1) long-chain complexity, with tasks decomposed into a sequence of interdependent subtasks spanning hundreds of steps, explicitly designed to allow any subtask to serve as a valid starting point; and (2) subtask-level verifiability, which enables diverse exploration strategies within each subtask, while ensuring that each subtask-level goal remains verifiable and consistent. The dataset consists of GUI task trajectories across both desktop and web, annotated by human experts. Extensive experiments on VeriGUI using various agents with different foundation models reveal significant performance gaps in handling long-horizon tasks, highlighting the need for more robust planning and decision-making capabilities in GUI agents.

Sequential decision-making agents struggle with long horizon tasks, since solving them requires multi-step reasoning. Most reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms address this challenge by improved credit assignment, introducing memory capability, altering the agent's intrinsic motivation (i.e. exploration) or its worldview (i.e. knowledge representation). Many of these components could be learned from offline data. In this work, we follow the hypothesis that exploration and representation learning can be improved by separately learning two different models from a single offline dataset. We show that learning a state representation using noise-contrastive estimation and a model of auxiliary reward separately from a single collection of human demonstrations can significantly improve the sample efficiency on the challenging NetHack benchmark. We also ablate various components of our experimental setting and highlight crucial insights.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as world models to enhance agent decision-making in digital environments by simulating future states and predicting action outcomes, potentially eliminating costly trial-and-error exploration. However, this capability is fundamentally limited by LLMs' tendency toward hallucination and their reliance on static training knowledge, which can lead to compounding errors that inhibit long-horizon simulations. To systematically investigate whether LLMs are appropriate for world modeling, we probe two core capabilities of world models--future state prediction and reward estimation--through three tasks: next-state identification, full-procedure planning alignment, and milestone transition recognition. Our analysis shows that while LLMs effectively capture immediate next states and identify meaningful state transitions, their performance rapidly degrades in full-procedure planning. This highlights LLMs' limitations in reliably modeling environment dynamics over long horizons. To address these limitations, we propose the Retrieval-augmented World Model (R-WoM), which grounds LLM simulations by incorporating factual, up-to-date knowledge retrieved from external tutorials. Experiments show that R-WoM achieves substantial improvements of up to 25.3% (OSWorld) and 18.1% (WebArena) compared to baselines, with particular advantages in longer-horizon simulations.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently emerged as promising tools for solving challenging robotic tasks, even in the presence of action and observation uncertainties. Recent LLM-based decision-making methods (also referred to as LLM-based agents), when paired with appropriate critics, have demonstrated potential in solving complex, long-horizon tasks with relatively few interactions. However, most existing LLM-based agents lack the ability to retain and learn from past interactions - an essential trait of learning-based robotic systems. We propose RAG-Modulo, a framework that enhances LLM-based agents with a memory of past interactions and incorporates critics to evaluate the agents' decisions. The memory component allows the agent to automatically retrieve and incorporate relevant past experiences as in-context examples, providing context-aware feedback for more informed decision-making. Further by updating its memory, the agent improves its performance over time, thereby exhibiting learning. Through experiments in the challenging BabyAI and AlfWorld domains, we demonstrate significant improvements in task success rates and efficiency, showing that the proposed RAG-Modulo framework outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in decision-making tasks, but struggle significantly with complex, long-horizon planning scenarios. This arises from their lack of macroscopic guidance, causing disorientation and failures in complex tasks, as well as insufficient continuous oversight during execution, rendering them unresponsive to environmental changes and prone to deviations. To tackle these challenges, we introduce HiPlan, a hierarchical planning framework that provides adaptive global-local guidance to boost LLM-based agents'decision-making. HiPlan decomposes complex tasks into milestone action guides for general direction and step-wise hints for detailed actions. During the offline phase, we construct a milestone library from expert demonstrations, enabling structured experience reuse by retrieving semantically similar tasks and milestones. In the execution phase, trajectory segments from past milestones are dynamically adapted to generate step-wise hints that align current observations with the milestone objectives, bridging gaps and correcting deviations. Extensive experiments across two challenging benchmarks demonstrate that HiPlan substantially outperforms strong baselines, and ablation studies validate the complementary benefits of its hierarchical components.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in financial reasoning and market understanding. Multi-agent LLM frameworks such as TradingAgent and FINMEM augment these models to long-horizon investment tasks, leveraging fundamental and sentiment-based inputs for strategic decision-making. However, such systems are ill-suited for the high-speed, precision-critical demands of High-Frequency Trading (HFT). HFT requires rapid, risk-aware decisions based on structured, short-horizon signals, including technical indicators, chart patterns, and trend-based features, distinct from the long-term semantic reasoning typical of traditional financial LLM applications. To this end, we introduce QuantAgent, the first multi-agent LLM framework explicitly designed for high-frequency algorithmic trading. The system decomposes trading into four specialized agents, Indicator, Pattern, Trend, and Risk, each equipped with domain-specific tools and structured reasoning capabilities to capture distinct aspects of market dynamics over short temporal windows. In zero-shot evaluations across ten financial instruments, including Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures, QuantAgent demonstrates superior performance in both predictive accuracy and cumulative return over 4-hour trading intervals, outperforming strong neural and rule-based baselines. Our findings suggest that combining structured financial priors with language-native reasoning unlocks new potential for traceable, real-time decision systems in high-frequency financial markets.

Planning with partial observation is a central challenge in embodied AI. A majority of prior works have tackled this challenge by developing agents that physically explore their environment to update their beliefs about the world state.In contrast, humans can imagine unseen parts of the world through a mental exploration and revise their beliefs with imagined observations. Such updated beliefs can allow them to make more informed decisions, without necessitating the physical exploration of the world at all times. To achieve this human-like ability, we introduce the Generative World Explorer (Genex), an egocentric world exploration framework that allows an agent to mentally explore a large-scale 3D world (e.g., urban scenes) and acquire imagined observations to update its belief. This updated belief will then help the agent to make a more informed decision at the current step. To train Genex, we create a synthetic urban scene dataset, Genex-DB. Our experimental results demonstrate that (1) Genex can generate high-quality and consistent observations during long-horizon exploration of a large virtual physical world and (2) the beliefs updated with the generated observations can inform an existing decision-making model (e.g., an LLM agent) to make better plans.

State-of-the-art (SOTA) reinforcement learning (RL) methods enable the vision-language agents to learn from interactions with the environment without human supervision. However, they struggle with learning inefficiencies in tackling real-world complex sequential decision-making tasks, especially with sparse reward signals and long-horizon dependencies. To effectively address the issue, we introduce Variational Subgoal-Conditioned RL (VSC-RL), which reformulates the vision-language sequential decision-making task as a variational goal-conditioned RL problem, allowing us to leverage advanced optimization methods to enhance learning efficiency. Specifically, VSC-RL optimizes the SubGoal Evidence Lower BOund (SGC-ELBO), which consists of (a) maximizing the subgoal-conditioned return via RL and (b) minimizing the subgoal-conditioned difference with the reference policy. We theoretically demonstrate that SGC-ELBO is equivalent to the original optimization objective, ensuring improved learning efficiency without sacrificing performance guarantees. Additionally, for real-world complex decision-making tasks, VSC-RL leverages the vision-language model to autonomously decompose the goal into feasible subgoals, enabling efficient learning. Across various benchmarks, including challenging real-world mobile device control tasks, VSC-RL significantly outperforms the SOTA vision-language agents, achieving superior performance and remarkable improvement in learning efficiency.

We present a vision-action policy that won 1st place in the 2025 BEHAVIOR Challenge - a large-scale benchmark featuring 50 diverse long-horizon household tasks in photo-realistic simulation, requiring bimanual manipulation, navigation, and context-aware decision making. Building on the Pi0.5 architecture, we introduce several innovations. Our primary contribution is correlated noise for flow matching, which improves training efficiency and enables correlation-aware inpainting for smooth action sequences. We also apply learnable mixed-layer attention and System 2 stage tracking for ambiguity resolution. Training employs multi-sample flow matching to reduce variance, while inference uses action compression and challenge-specific correction rules. Our approach achieves 26% q-score across all 50 tasks on both public and private leaderboards.

We introduce RoboBrain 2.0, our latest generation of embodied vision-language foundation models, designed to unify perception, reasoning, and planning for complex embodied tasks in physical environments. It comes in two variants: a lightweight 7B model and a full-scale 32B model, featuring a heterogeneous architecture with a vision encoder and a language model. Despite its compact size, RoboBrain 2.0 achieves strong performance across a wide spectrum of embodied reasoning tasks. On both spatial and temporal benchmarks, the 32B variant achieves leading results, surpassing prior open-source and proprietary models. In particular, it supports key real-world embodied AI capabilities, including spatial understanding (e.g., affordance prediction, spatial referring, trajectory forecasting) and temporal decision-making (e.g., closed-loop interaction, multi-agent long-horizon planning, and scene graph updating). This report details the model architecture, data construction, multi-stage training strategies, infrastructure and practical applications. We hope RoboBrain 2.0 advances embodied AI research and serves as a practical step toward building generalist embodied agents. The code, checkpoint and benchmark are available at https://superrobobrain.github.io.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) can exhibit impressive proficiency in isolated, short-term tasks, they often fail to maintain coherent performance over longer time horizons. In this paper, we present Vending-Bench, a simulated environment designed to specifically test an LLM-based agent's ability to manage a straightforward, long-running business scenario: operating a vending machine. Agents must balance inventories, place orders, set prices, and handle daily fees - tasks that are each simple but collectively, over long horizons (>20M tokens per run) stress an LLM's capacity for sustained, coherent decision-making. Our experiments reveal high variance in performance across multiple LLMs: Claude 3.5 Sonnet and o3-mini manage the machine well in most runs and turn a profit, but all models have runs that derail, either through misinterpreting delivery schedules, forgetting orders, or descending into tangential "meltdown" loops from which they rarely recover. We find no clear correlation between failures and the point at which the model's context window becomes full, suggesting that these breakdowns do not stem from memory limits. Apart from highlighting the high variance in performance over long time horizons, Vending-Bench also tests models' ability to acquire capital, a necessity in many hypothetical dangerous AI scenarios. We hope the benchmark can help in preparing for the advent of stronger AI systems.

To make effective decisions in novel environments with long-horizon goals, it is crucial to engage in hierarchical reasoning across spatial and temporal scales. This entails planning abstract subgoal sequences, visually reasoning about the underlying plans, and executing actions in accordance with the devised plan through visual-motor control. We propose Compositional Foundation Models for Hierarchical Planning (HiP), a foundation model which leverages multiple expert foundation model trained on language, vision and action data individually jointly together to solve long-horizon tasks. We use a large language model to construct symbolic plans that are grounded in the environment through a large video diffusion model. Generated video plans are then grounded to visual-motor control, through an inverse dynamics model that infers actions from generated videos. To enable effective reasoning within this hierarchy, we enforce consistency between the models via iterative refinement. We illustrate the efficacy and adaptability of our approach in three different long-horizon table-top manipulation tasks.

LLMs are ideal for decision-making thanks to their ability to reason over long contexts. However, challenges arise when processing speech transcripts that describe complex scenarios, as they are verbose and include repetition, hedging, and vagueness. E.g., during a company's earnings call, an executive might project a positive revenue outlook to reassure investors, despite uncertainty regarding future earnings. It is crucial for LLMs to incorporate this uncertainty systematically when making decisions. In this paper, we introduce DeFine, a modular framework that constructs probabilistic factor profiles from complex scenarios. It then integrates these profiles with analogical reasoning, leveraging insights from similar past experiences to guide LLMs in making critical decisions in new situations. Our framework separates the tasks of quantifying uncertainty and incorporating it into LLM decision-making. This approach is particularly useful in areas such as consulting and financial deliberation, where making decisions under uncertainty is vital.

Recent trends in test-time scaling for reasoning models (e.g., OpenAI o1, DeepSeek-R1) have led to remarkable improvements through long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, existing benchmarks mainly focus on immediate, single-horizon tasks, failing to adequately evaluate models' ability to understand and respond to complex, long-horizon scenarios. To address this incomplete evaluation of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), we propose R-HORIZON, a method designed to stimulate long-horizon reasoning behaviors in LRMs through query composition. Based on R-HORIZON, we construct a long-horizon reasoning benchmark, comprising complex multi-step reasoning tasks with interdependent problems that span long reasoning horizons. Through comprehensive evaluation of LRMs using the R-HORIZON benchmark, we find that even the most advanced LRMs suffer significant performance degradation. Our analysis reveals that LRMs exhibit limited effective reasoning length and struggle to allocate thinking budget across multiple problems appropriately. Recognizing these limitations, we use R-HORIZON to construct long-horizon reasoning data for reinforcement learning with verified rewards (RLVR). Compared to training with single-horizon data, RLVR with R-HORIZON not only substantially improves performance on the multi-horizon reasoning tasks, but also promotes accuracy on standard reasoning tasks, with an increase of 7.5 on AIME2024. These results position R-HORIZON as a scalable, controllable, and low-cost paradigm for enhancing and evaluating the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of LRMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used across society, including in domains like business, engineering, and medicine. These fields often grapple with decision-making under uncertainty, a critical yet challenging task. In this paper, we show that directly prompting LLMs on these types of decision-making problems yields poor results, especially as the problem complexity increases. To overcome this limitation, we propose DeLLMa (Decision-making Large Language Model assistant), a framework designed to enhance decision-making accuracy in uncertain environments. DeLLMa involves a multi-step scaffolding procedure, drawing upon principles from decision theory and utility theory, to provide an optimal and human-auditable decision-making process. We validate our framework on decision-making environments involving real agriculture and finance data. Our results show that DeLLMa can significantly improve LLM decision-making performance, achieving up to a 40% increase in accuracy over competing methods.

Autonomous agents have recently achieved remarkable progress across diverse domains, yet most evaluations focus on short-horizon, fully observable tasks. In contrast, many critical real-world tasks, such as large-scale software development, commercial investment, and scientific discovery, unfold in long-horizon and partially observable scenarios where success hinges on sustained reasoning, planning, memory management, and tool use. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these long-horizon challenges, leaving a gap in systematic evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce UltraHorizon a novel benchmark that measures the foundational capabilities essential for complex real-world challenges. We use exploration as a unifying task across three distinct environments to validate these core competencies. Agents are designed in long-horizon discovery tasks where they must iteratively uncover hidden rules through sustained reasoning, planning, memory and tools management, and interaction with environments. Under the heaviest scale setting, trajectories average 200k+ tokens and 400+ tool calls, whereas in standard configurations they still exceed 35k tokens and involve more than 60 tool calls on average. Our extensive experiments reveal that LLM-agents consistently underperform in these settings, whereas human participants achieve higher scores, underscoring a persistent gap in agents' long-horizon abilities. We also observe that simple scaling fails in our task. To better illustrate the failure of agents, we conduct an in-depth analysis of collected trajectories. We identify eight types of errors and attribute them to two primary causes: in-context locking and functional fundamental capability gaps. https://github.com/StarDewXXX/UltraHorizon{Our code will be available here.}

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) offers a practical learning paradigm where goal-reaching policies are trained from abundant unlabeled (reward-free) datasets without additional environment interaction. However, offline GCRL still struggles with long-horizon tasks, even with recent advances that employ hierarchical policy structures, such as HIQL. By identifying the root cause of this challenge, we observe the following insights: First, performance bottlenecks mainly stem from the high-level policy's inability to generate appropriate subgoals. Second, when learning the high-level policy in the long-horizon regime, the sign of the advantage signal frequently becomes incorrect. Thus, we argue that improving the value function to produce a clear advantage signal for learning the high-level policy is essential. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective solution: Option-aware Temporally Abstracted value learning, dubbed OTA, which incorporates temporal abstraction into the temporal-difference learning process. By modifying the value update to be option-aware, the proposed learning scheme contracts the effective horizon length, enabling better advantage estimates even in long-horizon regimes. We experimentally show that the high-level policy extracted using the OTA value function achieves strong performance on complex tasks from OGBench, a recently proposed offline GCRL benchmark, including maze navigation and visual robotic manipulation environments.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown remarkable capabilities in robotic manipulation, but their performance is sensitive to the action chunk length used during training, termed horizon. Our empirical study reveals an inherent trade-off: longer horizons provide stronger global foresight but degrade fine-grained accuracy, while shorter ones sharpen local control yet struggle on long-term tasks, implying fixed choice of single horizons being suboptimal. To mitigate the trade-off, we propose a mixture of horizons (MoH) strategy. MoH rearranges the action chunk into several segments with different horizons, processes them in parallel with a shared action transformer, and fuses outputs with a light linear gate. It has three appealing benefits. 1) MoH exploits long-term foresight and short-term precision jointly within a single model, improving both performance and generalizability to complex tasks. 2) MoH is plug-and-play for full-attention action modules with minimal training or inference overhead. 3) MoH enables dynamic inference with adaptive horizons, which selects stable actions through cross-horizon consensus, achieving 2.5times higher throughput than baselines while preserving superior performance. Extensive experiments over flow-based policies π_0, π_{0.5}, and one-step regression policy π_{reg} demonstrate that MoH yields consistent and significant gains on both simulations and real-world tasks. Notably, under mixed-task setting, π_{0.5} with MoH reaches a new state-of-the-art with 99% average success rate on LIBERO after only 30k training iterations. Project page: https://github.com/Timsty1/MixtureOfHorizons

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant capabilities in natural language processing and reasoning, yet their effectiveness in autonomous planning has been under debate. While existing studies have utilized LLMs with external feedback mechanisms or in controlled environments for planning, these approaches often involve substantial computational and development resources due to the requirement for careful design and iterative backprompting. Moreover, even the most advanced LLMs like GPT-4 struggle to match human performance on standard planning benchmarks, such as the Blocksworld, without additional support. This paper investigates whether LLMs can independently generate long-horizon plans that rival human baselines. Our novel enhancements to Algorithm-of-Thoughts (AoT), which we dub AoT+, help achieve state-of-the-art results in planning benchmarks out-competing prior methods and human baselines all autonomously.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Many resource management problems require sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where the only uncertainty affecting the decision outcomes are exogenous variables outside the control of the decision-maker. We model these problems as Exo-MDPs (Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Inputs) and design a class of data-efficient algorithms for them termed Hindsight Learning (HL). Our HL algorithms achieve data efficiency by leveraging a key insight: having samples of the exogenous variables, past decisions can be revisited in hindsight to infer counterfactual consequences that can accelerate policy improvements. We compare HL against classic baselines in the multi-secretary and airline revenue management problems. We also scale our algorithms to a business-critical cloud resource management problem -- allocating Virtual Machines (VMs) to physical machines, and simulate their performance with real datasets from a large public cloud provider. We find that HL algorithms outperform domain-specific heuristics, as well as state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

The accurate modeling of dynamics in interactive environments is critical for successful long-range prediction. Such a capability could advance Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Planning algorithms, but achieving it is challenging. Inaccuracies in model estimates can compound, resulting in increased errors over long horizons. We approach this problem from the lens of Koopman theory, where the nonlinear dynamics of the environment can be linearized in a high-dimensional latent space. This allows us to efficiently parallelize the sequential problem of long-range prediction using convolution while accounting for the agent's action at every time step. Our approach also enables stability analysis and better control over gradients through time. Taken together, these advantages result in significant improvement over the existing approaches, both in the efficiency and the accuracy of modeling dynamics over extended horizons. We also show that this model can be easily incorporated into dynamics modeling for model-based planning and model-free RL and report promising experimental results.

Hierarchical policies that combine language and low-level control have been shown to perform impressively long-horizon robotic tasks, by leveraging either zero-shot high-level planners like pretrained language and vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs) or models trained on annotated robotic demonstrations. However, for complex and dexterous skills, attaining high success rates on long-horizon tasks still represents a major challenge -- the longer the task is, the more likely it is that some stage will fail. Can humans help the robot to continuously improve its long-horizon task performance through intuitive and natural feedback? In this paper, we make the following observation: high-level policies that index into sufficiently rich and expressive low-level language-conditioned skills can be readily supervised with human feedback in the form of language corrections. We show that even fine-grained corrections, such as small movements ("move a bit to the left"), can be effectively incorporated into high-level policies, and that such corrections can be readily obtained from humans observing the robot and making occasional suggestions. This framework enables robots not only to rapidly adapt to real-time language feedback, but also incorporate this feedback into an iterative training scheme that improves the high-level policy's ability to correct errors in both low-level execution and high-level decision-making purely from verbal feedback. Our evaluation on real hardware shows that this leads to significant performance improvement in long-horizon, dexterous manipulation tasks without the need for any additional teleoperation. Videos and code are available at https://yay-robot.github.io/.

Long-horizon planning is hindered by challenges such as uncertainty accumulation, computational complexity, delayed rewards and incomplete information. This work proposes an approach to exploit the task hierarchy from human instructions to facilitate multi-robot planning. Using Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose a two-step approach to translate multi-sentence instructions into a structured language, Hierarchical Linear Temporal Logic (LTL), which serves as a formal representation for planning. Initially, LLMs transform the instructions into a hierarchical representation defined as Hierarchical Task Tree, capturing the logical and temporal relations among tasks. Following this, a domain-specific fine-tuning of LLM translates sub-tasks of each task into flat LTL formulas, aggregating them to form hierarchical LTL specifications. These specifications are then leveraged for planning using off-the-shelf planners. Our framework not only bridges the gap between instructions and algorithmic planning but also showcases the potential of LLMs in harnessing hierarchical reasoning to automate multi-robot task planning. Through evaluations in both simulation and real-world experiments involving human participants, we demonstrate that our method can handle more complex instructions compared to existing methods. The results indicate that our approach achieves higher success rates and lower costs in multi-robot task allocation and plan generation. Demos videos are available at https://youtu.be/7WOrDKxIMIs .

Decision-making is a dynamic process requiring perception, memory, and reasoning to make choices and find optimal policies. Traditional approaches to decision-making suffer from sample efficiency and generalization, while large-scale self-supervised pretraining has enabled fast adaptation with fine-tuning or few-shot learning in language and vision. We thus argue to integrate knowledge acquired from generic large-scale self-supervised pretraining into downstream decision-making problems. We propose Pretrain-Then-Adapt pipeline and survey recent work on data collection, pretraining objectives and adaptation strategies for decision-making pretraining and downstream inference. Finally, we identify critical challenges and future directions for developing decision foundation model with the help of generic and flexible self-supervised pretraining.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Efficient control in long-horizon robotic manipulation is challenging due to complex representation and policy learning requirements. Model-based visual reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great potential in addressing these challenges but still faces notable limitations, particularly in handling sparse rewards and complex visual features in long-horizon environments. To address these limitations, we propose the Recognize-Sense-Plan-Act (RSPA) pipeline for long-horizon tasks and further introduce RoboHorizon, an LLM-assisted multi-view world model tailored for long-horizon robotic manipulation. In RoboHorizon, pre-trained LLMs generate dense reward structures for multi-stage sub-tasks based on task language instructions, enabling robots to better recognize long-horizon tasks. Keyframe discovery is then integrated into the multi-view masked autoencoder (MAE) architecture to enhance the robot's ability to sense critical task sequences, strengthening its multi-stage perception of long-horizon processes. Leveraging these dense rewards and multi-view representations, a robotic world model is constructed to efficiently plan long-horizon tasks, enabling the robot to reliably act through RL algorithms. Experiments on two representative benchmarks, RLBench and FurnitureBench, show that RoboHorizon outperforms state-of-the-art visual model-based RL methods, achieving a 23.35% improvement in task success rates on RLBench's 4 short-horizon tasks and a 29.23% improvement on 6 long-horizon tasks from RLBench and 3 furniture assembly tasks from FurnitureBench.

Algorithmic trading requires short-term decisions aligned with long-term financial goals. While reinforcement learning (RL) has been explored for such tactical decisions, its adoption remains limited by myopic behavior and opaque policy rationale. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strategic reasoning and multi-modal financial signal interpretation when guided by well-designed prompts. We propose a hybrid system where LLMs generate high-level trading strategies to guide RL agents in their actions. We evaluate (i) the rationale of LLM-generated strategies via expert review, and (ii) the Sharpe Ratio (SR) and Maximum Drawdown (MDD) of LLM-guided agents versus unguided baselines. Results show improved return and risk metrics over standard RL.

Real-world long-horizon embodied planning underpins embodied AI. To accomplish long-horizon tasks, agents need to decompose abstract instructions into detailed steps. Prior works mostly rely on GPT-4V for task decomposition into predefined actions, which limits task diversity due to GPT-4V's finite understanding of larger skillsets. Therefore, we present ReLEP, a groundbreaking framework for Real world Long-horizon Embodied Planning, which can accomplish a wide range of daily tasks. At its core lies a fine-tuned large vision language model that formulates plans as sequences of skill functions according to input instruction and scene image. These functions are selected from a carefully designed skill library. ReLEP is also equipped with a Memory module for plan and status recall, and a Robot Configuration module for versatility across robot types. In addition, we propose a semi-automatic data generation pipeline to tackle dataset scarcity. Real-world off-line experiments across eight daily embodied tasks demonstrate that ReLEP is able to accomplish long-horizon embodied tasks and outperforms other state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Recent advances in deep-research agents have shown promise for autonomous knowledge construction through dynamic reasoning over external sources. However, existing approaches rely on a mono-contextual paradigm that accumulates all information in a single, expanding context window, leading to context suffocation and noise contamination that limit their effectiveness on long-horizon tasks. We introduce IterResearch, a novel iterative deep-research paradigm that reformulates long-horizon research as a Markov Decision Process with strategic workspace reconstruction. By maintaining an evolving report as memory and periodically synthesizing insights, our approach preserves consistent reasoning capacity across arbitrary exploration depths. We further develop Efficiency-Aware Policy Optimization (EAPO), a reinforcement learning framework that incentivizes efficient exploration through geometric reward discounting and enables stable distributed training via adaptive downsampling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that IterResearch achieves substantial improvements over existing open-source agents with average +14.5pp across six benchmarks and narrows the gap with frontier proprietary systems. Remarkably, our paradigm exhibits unprecedented interaction scaling, extending to 2048 interactions with dramatic performance gains (from 3.5\% to 42.5\%), and serves as an effective prompting strategy, improving frontier models by up to 19.2pp over ReAct on long-horizon tasks. These findings position IterResearch as a versatile solution for long-horizon reasoning, effective both as a trained agent and as a prompting paradigm for frontier models.

Solving long-horizon, temporally-extended tasks using Reinforcement Learning (RL) is challenging, compounded by the common practice of learning without prior knowledge (or tabula rasa learning). Humans can generate and execute plans with temporally-extended actions and quickly learn to perform new tasks because we almost never solve problems from scratch. We want autonomous agents to have this same ability. Recently, LLMs have been shown to encode a tremendous amount of knowledge about the world and to perform impressive in-context learning and reasoning. However, using LLMs to solve real world problems is hard because they are not grounded in the current task. In this paper we exploit the planning capabilities of LLMs while using RL to provide learning from the environment, resulting in a hierarchical agent that uses LLMs to solve long-horizon tasks. Instead of completely relying on LLMs, they guide a high-level policy, making learning significantly more sample efficient. This approach is evaluated in simulation environments such as MiniGrid, SkillHack, and Crafter, and on a real robot arm in block manipulation tasks. We show that agents trained using our approach outperform other baselines methods and, once trained, don't need access to LLMs during deployment.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Instructing a robot to complete an everyday task within our homes has been a long-standing challenge for robotics. While recent progress in language-conditioned imitation learning and offline reinforcement learning has demonstrated impressive performance across a wide range of tasks, they are typically limited to short-horizon tasks -- not reflective of those a home robot would be expected to complete. While existing architectures have the potential to learn these desired behaviours, the lack of the necessary long-horizon, multi-step datasets for real robotic systems poses a significant challenge. To this end, we present the Long-Horizon Manipulation (LHManip) dataset comprising 200 episodes, demonstrating 20 different manipulation tasks via real robot teleoperation. The tasks entail multiple sub-tasks, including grasping, pushing, stacking and throwing objects in highly cluttered environments. Each task is paired with a natural language instruction and multi-camera viewpoints for point-cloud or NeRF reconstruction. In total, the dataset comprises 176,278 observation-action pairs which form part of the Open X-Embodiment dataset. The full LHManip dataset is made publicly available at https://github.com/fedeceola/LHManip.

Long-horizon contact-rich tasks are challenging to learn with reinforcement learning, due to ineffective exploration of high-dimensional state spaces with sparse rewards. The learning process often gets stuck in local optimum and demands task-specific reward fine-tuning for complex scenarios. In this work, we propose a structured framework that leverages privileged actions with curriculum learning, enabling the policy to efficiently acquire long-horizon skills without relying on extensive reward engineering or reference trajectories. Specifically, we use privileged actions in simulation with a general training procedure that would be infeasible to implement in real-world scenarios. These privileges include relaxed constraints and virtual forces that enhance interaction and exploration with objects. Our results successfully achieve complex multi-stage long-horizon tasks that naturally combine non-prehensile manipulation with grasping to lift objects from non-graspable poses. We demonstrate generality by maintaining a parsimonious reward structure and showing convergence to diverse and robust behaviors across various environments. Additionally, real-world experiments further confirm that the skills acquired using our approach are transferable to real-world environments, exhibiting robust and intricate performance. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in these tasks, converging to solutions where others fail.

Effective decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for handling intricate tasks. However, existing approaches prioritize performance but often overlook the balance between effectiveness and computational cost. To address this, we first introduce the 3E Criteria to systematically assess the cost-effectiveness of search strategies, revealing that existing methods often trade significant efficiency for marginal performance gains. To improve LLM decision-making while maintaining efficiency, we propose the Speculative Reward Model (SRM), a plug-and-play framework that seamlessly integrates with existing search strategies. Specifically, SRM employs an external reward assigner to predict optimal actions, reducing reliance on LLMs' internal self-evaluation. And a speculative verification mechanism is used to prune suboptimal choices and guide the search toward more promising steps. We evaluate SRM on several complex decision-making tasks including mathematical reasoning, planning and numerical reasoning in specialized domains. Experimental results show that SRM reduces costs to 1/10 of the original search framework on average while maintaining effectiveness.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot generalization abilities: state-of-the-art chatbots can provide plausible answers to many common questions that arise in daily life. However, so far, LLMs cannot reliably solve long-horizon planning problems. By contrast, classical planners, once a problem is given in a formatted way, can use efficient search algorithms to quickly identify correct, or even optimal, plans. In an effort to get the best of both worlds, this paper introduces LLM+P, the first framework that incorporates the strengths of classical planners into LLMs. LLM+P takes in a natural language description of a planning problem, then returns a correct (or optimal) plan for solving that problem in natural language. LLM+P does so by first converting the language description into a file written in the planning domain definition language (PDDL), then leveraging classical planners to quickly find a solution, and then translating the found solution back into natural language. Along with LLM+P, we define a diverse set of different benchmark problems taken from common planning scenarios. Via a comprehensive set of experiments on these benchmark problems, we find that LLM+P is able to provide optimal solutions for most problems, while LLMs fail to provide even feasible plans for most problems.\footnote{The code and results are publicly available at https://github.com/Cranial-XIX/llm-pddl.git.

We propose a new class of deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms that model latent representations in hyperbolic space. Sequential decision-making requires reasoning about the possible future consequences of current behavior. Consequently, capturing the relationship between key evolving features for a given task is conducive to recovering effective policies. To this end, hyperbolic geometry provides deep RL models with a natural basis to precisely encode this inherently hierarchical information. However, applying existing methodologies from the hyperbolic deep learning literature leads to fatal optimization instabilities due to the non-stationarity and variance characterizing RL gradient estimators. Hence, we design a new general method that counteracts such optimization challenges and enables stable end-to-end learning with deep hyperbolic representations. We empirically validate our framework by applying it to popular on-policy and off-policy RL algorithms on the Procgen and Atari 100K benchmarks, attaining near universal performance and generalization benefits. Given its natural fit, we hope future RL research will consider hyperbolic representations as a standard tool.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a powerful post-training paradigm for aligning large language models with human preferences. A core challenge in RLHF is constructing accurate reward signals, where the conventional Bradley-Terry reward models (BT RMs) often suffer from sensitivity to data size and coverage, as well as vulnerability to reward hacking. Generative reward models (GenRMs) offer a more robust alternative by generating chain-of-thought (CoT) rationales followed by a final reward. However, existing GenRMs rely on shallow, vertically scaled reasoning, limiting their capacity to handle nuanced or complex (e.g., reasoning-intensive) tasks. Moreover, their pairwise preference outputs are incompatible with standard RLHF algorithms that require pointwise reward signals. In this work, we introduce Think-RM, a training framework that enables long-horizon reasoning in GenRMs by modeling an internal thinking process. Rather than producing structured, externally provided rationales, Think-RM generates flexible, self-guided reasoning traces that support advanced capabilities such as self-reflection, hypothetical reasoning, and divergent reasoning. To elicit these reasoning abilities, we first warm-up the models by supervised fine-tuning (SFT) over long CoT data. We then further improve the model's long-horizon abilities by rule-based reinforcement learning (RL). In addition, we propose a novel pairwise RLHF pipeline that directly optimizes policies using pairwise preference rewards, eliminating the need for pointwise reward conversion and enabling more effective use of Think-RM outputs. Experiments show that Think-RM achieves state-of-the-art results on RM-Bench, outperforming both BT RM and vertically scaled GenRM by 8%. When combined with our pairwise RLHF pipeline, it demonstrates superior end-policy performance compared to traditional approaches.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently become a strong recipe for training reasoning LLMs that produce long chains of thought (LongCoT). Yet the standard RL "thinking environment", where the state is the prompt plus all prior reasoning tokens, makes the state unbounded and forces attention-based policies to pay quadratic compute as thoughts lengthen. We revisit the environment itself. We propose Markovian Thinking, a paradigm in which the policy advances reasoning while conditioning on a constant-size state, decoupling thinking length from context size. As an immediate consequence this yields linear compute with constant memory. We instantiate this idea with Delethink, an RL environment that structures reasoning into fixed-size chunks. Within each chunk, the model thinks as usual; at the boundary, the environment resets the context and reinitializes the prompt with a short carryover. Through RL, the policy learns to write a textual state near the end of each chunk sufficient for seamless continuation of reasoning after reset. Trained in this environment, an R1-Distill 1.5B model reasons in 8K-token chunks yet thinks up to 24K tokens, matching or surpassing LongCoT-RL trained with a 24K budget. With test-time scaling, Delethink continues to improve where LongCoT plateaus. The effect of linear compute is substantial: we empirically estimate at 96K average thinking length LongCoT-RL costs 27 H100-months vs. 7 for Delethink. Analysis at RL initialization shows off-the-shelf reasoning models (1.5B-120B) often sample Markovian traces zero-shot across diverse benchmarks, providing positive samples that make RL effective at scale. Our results show that redesigning the thinking environment is a powerful lever: it enables very long reasoning without quadratic overhead and opens a path toward efficient, scalable reasoning LLMs.

Data-driven model predictive control has two key advantages over model-free methods: a potential for improved sample efficiency through model learning, and better performance as computational budget for planning increases. However, it is both costly to plan over long horizons and challenging to obtain an accurate model of the environment. In this work, we combine the strengths of model-free and model-based methods. We use a learned task-oriented latent dynamics model for local trajectory optimization over a short horizon, and use a learned terminal value function to estimate long-term return, both of which are learned jointly by temporal difference learning. Our method, TD-MPC, achieves superior sample efficiency and asymptotic performance over prior work on both state and image-based continuous control tasks from DMControl and Meta-World. Code and video results are available at https://nicklashansen.github.io/td-mpc.

Recent advancements in reasoning with large language models (RLLMs), such as OpenAI-O1 and DeepSeek-R1, have demonstrated their impressive capabilities in complex domains like mathematics and coding. A central factor in their success lies in the application of long chain-of-thought (Long CoT) characteristics, which enhance reasoning abilities and enable the solution of intricate problems. However, despite these developments, a comprehensive survey on Long CoT is still lacking, limiting our understanding of its distinctions from traditional short chain-of-thought (Short CoT) and complicating ongoing debates on issues like "overthinking" and "test-time scaling." This survey seeks to fill this gap by offering a unified perspective on Long CoT. (1) We first distinguish Long CoT from Short CoT and introduce a novel taxonomy to categorize current reasoning paradigms. (2) Next, we explore the key characteristics of Long CoT: deep reasoning, extensive exploration, and feasible reflection, which enable models to handle more complex tasks and produce more efficient, coherent outcomes compared to the shallower Short CoT. (3) We then investigate key phenomena such as the emergence of Long CoT with these characteristics, including overthinking, and test-time scaling, offering insights into how these processes manifest in practice. (4) Finally, we identify significant research gaps and highlight promising future directions, including the integration of multi-modal reasoning, efficiency improvements, and enhanced knowledge frameworks. By providing a structured overview, this survey aims to inspire future research and further the development of logical reasoning in artificial intelligence.

From out-competing grandmasters in chess to informing high-stakes healthcare decisions, emerging methods from artificial intelligence are increasingly capable of making complex and strategic decisions in diverse, high-dimensional, and uncertain situations. But can these methods help us devise robust strategies for managing environmental systems under great uncertainty? Here we explore how reinforcement learning, a subfield of artificial intelligence, approaches decision problems through a lens similar to adaptive environmental management: learning through experience to gradually improve decisions with updated knowledge. We review where reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for improving evidence-informed adaptive management decisions even when classical optimization methods are intractable. For example, model-free deep RL might help identify quantitative decision strategies even when models are nonidentifiable. Finally, we discuss technical and social issues that arise when applying reinforcement learning to adaptive management problems in the environmental domain. Our synthesis suggests that environmental management and computer science can learn from one another about the practices, promises, and perils of experience-based decision-making.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Progress in Embodied AI has made it possible for end-to-end-trained agents to navigate in photo-realistic environments with high-level reasoning and zero-shot or language-conditioned behavior, but benchmarks are still dominated by simulation. In this work, we focus on the fine-grained behavior of fast-moving real robots and present a large-scale experimental study involving navigation episodes in a real environment with a physical robot, where we analyze the type of reasoning emerging from end-to-end training. In particular, we study the presence of realistic dynamics which the agent learned for open-loop forecasting, and their interplay with sensing. We analyze the way the agent uses latent memory to hold elements of the scene structure and information gathered during exploration. We probe the planning capabilities of the agent, and find in its memory evidence for somewhat precise plans over a limited horizon. Furthermore, we show in a post-hoc analysis that the value function learned by the agent relates to long-term planning. Put together, our experiments paint a new picture on how using tools from computer vision and sequential decision making have led to new capabilities in robotics and control. An interactive tool is available at europe.naverlabs.com/research/publications/reasoning-in-visual-navigation-of-end-to-end-trained-agents.

We are interested in enabling visual planning for complex long-horizon tasks in the space of generated videos and language, leveraging recent advances in large generative models pretrained on Internet-scale data. To this end, we present video language planning (VLP), an algorithm that consists of a tree search procedure, where we train (i) vision-language models to serve as both policies and value functions, and (ii) text-to-video models as dynamics models. VLP takes as input a long-horizon task instruction and current image observation, and outputs a long video plan that provides detailed multimodal (video and language) specifications that describe how to complete the final task. VLP scales with increasing computation budget where more computation time results in improved video plans, and is able to synthesize long-horizon video plans across different robotics domains: from multi-object rearrangement, to multi-camera bi-arm dexterous manipulation. Generated video plans can be translated into real robot actions via goal-conditioned policies, conditioned on each intermediate frame of the generated video. Experiments show that VLP substantially improves long-horizon task success rates compared to prior methods on both simulated and real robots (across 3 hardware platforms).

Large language models excel at short-horizon reasoning tasks, but performance drops as reasoning horizon lengths increase. Existing approaches to combat this rely on inference-time scaffolding or costly step-level supervision, neither of which scales easily. In this work, we introduce a scalable method to bootstrap long-horizon reasoning capabilities using only existing, abundant short-horizon data. Our approach synthetically composes simple problems into complex, multi-step dependency chains of arbitrary length. We train models on this data using outcome-only rewards under a curriculum that automatically increases in complexity, allowing RL training to be scaled much further without saturating. Empirically, our method generalizes remarkably well: curriculum training on composed 6th-grade level math problems (GSM8K) boosts accuracy on longer, competition-level benchmarks (GSM-Symbolic, MATH-500, AIME) by up to 2.06x. It also transfers significantly to diverse out-of-distribution ReasoningGym domains and long-context benchmarks, indicating broader generalization. Importantly, our long-horizon improvements are significantly higher than baselines even at high pass@k, showing that models can learn new reasoning paths under RL. Theoretically, we show that curriculum RL with outcome rewards achieves an exponential improvement in sample complexity over full-horizon training, providing training signal comparable to dense supervision. h1 therefore introduces an efficient path towards scaling RL for long-horizon problems using only existing data.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive reasoning abilities, but translating reasoning into actions in the real world remains challenging. In particular, it remains unclear how to complete a given task provably within a minimum number of interactions with the external environment, e.g., through an internal mechanism of reasoning. To this end, we propose a principled framework with provable regret guarantees to orchestrate reasoning and acting, which we call "reason for future, act for now" (RAFA). Specifically, we design a prompt template for reasoning that learns from the memory buffer and plans a future trajectory over a long horizon ("reason for future"). At each step, the LLM agent takes the initial action of the planned trajectory ("act for now"), stores the collected feedback in the memory buffer, and reinvokes the reasoning routine to replan the future trajectory from the new state. The key idea is to cast reasoning in LLMs as learning and planning in Bayesian adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). Correspondingly, we prompt LLMs to form an updated posterior of the unknown environment from the memory buffer (learning) and generate an optimal trajectory for multiple future steps that maximizes a value function (planning). The learning and planning subroutines are performed in an "in-context" manner to emulate the actor-critic update for MDPs. Our theoretical analysis proves that the novel combination of long-term reasoning and short-term acting achieves a T regret. In particular, the regret bound highlights an intriguing interplay between the prior knowledge obtained through pretraining and the uncertainty reduction achieved by reasoning and acting. Our empirical validation shows that it outperforms various existing frameworks and achieves nearly perfect scores on a few benchmarks.

A long-standing goal in AI is to build agents that can solve a variety of tasks across different environments, including previously unseen ones. Two dominant approaches tackle this challenge: (i) reinforcement learning (RL), which learns policies through trial and error, and (ii) optimal control, which plans actions using a learned or known dynamics model. However, their relative strengths and weaknesses remain underexplored in the setting where agents must learn from offline trajectories without reward annotations. In this work, we systematically analyze the performance of different RL and control-based methods under datasets of varying quality. On the RL side, we consider goal-conditioned and zero-shot approaches. On the control side, we train a latent dynamics model using the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) and use it for planning. We study how dataset properties-such as data diversity, trajectory quality, and environment variability-affect the performance of these approaches. Our results show that model-free RL excels when abundant, high-quality data is available, while model-based planning excels in generalization to novel environment layouts, trajectory stitching, and data-efficiency. Notably, planning with a latent dynamics model emerges as a promising approach for zero-shot generalization from suboptimal data.

Learning long-horizon tasks such as navigation has presented difficult challenges for successfully applying reinforcement learning to robotics. From another perspective, under known environments, sampling-based planning can robustly find collision-free paths in environments without learning. In this work, we propose Control Transformer that models return-conditioned sequences from low-level policies guided by a sampling-based Probabilistic Roadmap (PRM) planner. We demonstrate that our framework can solve long-horizon navigation tasks using only local information. We evaluate our approach on partially-observed maze navigation with MuJoCo robots, including Ant, Point, and Humanoid. We show that Control Transformer can successfully navigate through mazes and transfer to unknown environments. Additionally, we apply our method to a differential drive robot (Turtlebot3) and show zero-shot sim2real transfer under noisy observations.

We study the problem of modeling a population of agents pursuing unknown goals subject to unknown computational constraints. In standard models of bounded rationality, sub-optimal decision-making is simulated by adding homoscedastic noise to optimal decisions rather than explicitly simulating constrained inference. In this work, we introduce a latent inference budget model (L-IBM) that models agents' computational constraints explicitly, via a latent variable (inferred jointly with a model of agents' goals) that controls the runtime of an iterative inference algorithm. L-IBMs make it possible to learn agent models using data from diverse populations of suboptimal actors. In three modeling tasks -- inferring navigation goals from routes, inferring communicative intents from human utterances, and predicting next moves in human chess games -- we show that L-IBMs match or outperform Boltzmann models of decision-making under uncertainty. Inferred inference budgets are themselves meaningful, efficient to compute, and correlated with measures of player skill, partner skill and task difficulty.

Reward sparsity in long-horizon reinforcement learning (RL) tasks remains a significant challenge, while existing outcome-based reward shaping struggles to define meaningful immediate rewards without introducing bias or requiring explicit task decomposition. Alternatively, verification-based reward shaping uses stepwise critics, but misalignment between immediate rewards and long-term objectives can lead to reward hacking and suboptimal policies. In this work, we address this problem in the context of software engineering (SWE) tasks, where multi-turn reasoning and rule-based verification are critical. We introduce the SWE-oriented RL Framework, a unified system supporting multi-turn interaction, docker-based execution, and customizable reward functions. Additionally, we propose Gated Reward Accumulation (G-RA), a novel method that accumulates immediate rewards only when high-level (long-term) rewards meet a predefined threshold, ensuring stable RL optimization. Experiments on SWE-bench Verified and kBench demonstrate that G-RA leads to an increase in completion rates (47.6\% \rightarrow 93.8\% and 22.0\% \rightarrow 86.0\%) and modification rates (19.6\% \rightarrow 23.8\% and 12.0\% \rightarrow 42.0\%), while avoiding policy degradation caused by reward misalignment. Our findings highlight the importance of balanced reward accumulation in long-horizon RL and provide a practical solution.

Recent large reasoning models (LRMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities through reinforcement learning (RL). These improvements have primarily been observed within the short-context reasoning tasks. In contrast, extending LRMs to effectively process and reason on long-context inputs via RL remains a critical unsolved challenge. To bridge this gap, we first formalize the paradigm of long-context reasoning RL, and identify key challenges in suboptimal training efficiency and unstable optimization process. To address these issues, we propose QwenLong-L1, a framework that adapts short-context LRMs to long-context scenarios via progressive context scaling. Specifically, we utilize a warm-up supervised fine-tuning (SFT) stage to establish a robust initial policy, followed by a curriculum-guided phased RL technique to stabilize the policy evolution, and enhanced with a difficulty-aware retrospective sampling strategy to incentivize the policy exploration. Experiments on seven long-context document question-answering benchmarks demonstrate that QwenLong-L1-32B outperforms flagship LRMs like OpenAI-o3-mini and Qwen3-235B-A22B, achieving performance on par with Claude-3.7-Sonnet-Thinking, demonstrating leading performance among state-of-the-art LRMs. This work advances the development of practical long-context LRMs capable of robust reasoning across information-intensive environments.

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized in autonomous decision-making, where they sample options from vast action spaces. However, the heuristics that guide this sampling process remain under-explored. We study this sampling behavior and show that this underlying heuristics resembles that of human decision-making: comprising a descriptive component (reflecting statistical norm) and a prescriptive component (implicit ideal encoded in the LLM) of a concept. We show that this deviation of a sample from the statistical norm towards a prescriptive component consistently appears in concepts across diverse real-world domains like public health, and economic trends. To further illustrate the theory, we demonstrate that concept prototypes in LLMs are affected by prescriptive norms, similar to the concept of normality in humans. Through case studies and comparison with human studies, we illustrate that in real-world applications, the shift of samples toward an ideal value in LLMs' outputs can result in significantly biased decision-making, raising ethical concerns.

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

We study the problem of planning under model uncertainty in an online meta-reinforcement learning (RL) setting where an agent is presented with a sequence of related tasks with limited interactions per task. The agent can use its experience in each task and across tasks to estimate both the transition model and the distribution over tasks. We propose an algorithm to meta-learn the underlying structure across tasks, utilize it to plan in each task, and upper-bound the regret of the planning loss. Our bound suggests that the average regret over tasks decreases as the number of tasks increases and as the tasks are more similar. In the classical single-task setting, it is known that the planning horizon should depend on the estimated model's accuracy, that is, on the number of samples within task. We generalize this finding to meta-RL and study this dependence of planning horizons on the number of tasks. Based on our theoretical findings, we derive heuristics for selecting slowly increasing discount factors, and we validate its significance empirically.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

We propose a new method for optimistic planning in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes based on the idea of adding regularization to the updates of an otherwise standard approximate value iteration procedure. This technique allows us to avoid contraction and monotonicity arguments typically required by existing analyses of approximate dynamic programming methods, and in particular to use approximate transition functions estimated via least-squares procedures in MDPs with linear function approximation. We use our method to recover known guarantees in tabular MDPs and to provide a computationally efficient algorithm for learning near-optimal policies in discounted linear mixture MDPs from a single stream of experience, and show it achieves near-optimal statistical guarantees.

Everyday tasks of long-horizon and comprising a sequence of multiple implicit subtasks still impose a major challenge in offline robot control. While a number of prior methods aimed to address this setting with variants of imitation and offline reinforcement learning, the learned behavior is typically narrow and often struggles to reach configurable long-horizon goals. As both paradigms have complementary strengths and weaknesses, we propose a novel hierarchical approach that combines the strengths of both methods to learn task-agnostic long-horizon policies from high-dimensional camera observations. Concretely, we combine a low-level policy that learns latent skills via imitation learning and a high-level policy learned from offline reinforcement learning for skill-chaining the latent behavior priors. Experiments in various simulated and real robot control tasks show that our formulation enables producing previously unseen combinations of skills to reach temporally extended goals by "stitching" together latent skills through goal chaining with an order-of-magnitude improvement in performance upon state-of-the-art baselines. We even learn one multi-task visuomotor policy for 25 distinct manipulation tasks in the real world which outperforms both imitation learning and offline reinforcement learning techniques.

We present metrics for measuring state similarity in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with infinitely many states, including MDPs with continuous state spaces. Such metrics provide a stable quantitative analogue of the notion of bisimulation for MDPs, and are suitable for use in MDP approximation. We show that the optimal value function associated with a discounted infinite horizon planning task varies continuously with respect to our metric distances.

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a formal framework for modeling and solving sequential decision-making problems. In finite-time horizons such problems are relevant for instance for optimal stopping or specific supply chain problems, but also in the training of large language models. In contrast to infinite horizon MDPs optimal policies are not stationary, policies must be learned for every single epoch. In practice all parameters are often trained simultaneously, ignoring the inherent structure suggested by dynamic programming. This paper introduces a combination of dynamic programming and policy gradient called dynamic policy gradient, where the parameters are trained backwards in time. For the tabular softmax parametrisation we carry out the convergence analysis for simultaneous and dynamic policy gradient towards global optima, both in the exact and sampled gradient settings without regularisation. It turns out that the use of dynamic policy gradient training much better exploits the structure of finite-time problems which is reflected in improved convergence bounds.

Decision making demands intricate interplay between perception, memory, and reasoning to discern optimal policies. Conventional approaches to decision making face challenges related to low sample efficiency and poor generalization. In contrast, foundation models in language and vision have showcased rapid adaptation to diverse new tasks. Therefore, we advocate for the construction of foundation agents as a transformative shift in the learning paradigm of agents. This proposal is underpinned by the formulation of foundation agents with their fundamental characteristics and challenges motivated by the success of large language models (LLMs). Moreover, we specify the roadmap of foundation agents from large interactive data collection or generation, to self-supervised pretraining and adaptation, and knowledge and value alignment with LLMs. Lastly, we pinpoint critical research questions derived from the formulation and delineate trends for foundation agents supported by real-world use cases, addressing both technical and theoretical aspects to propel the field towards a more comprehensive and impactful future.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) offers a powerful and general framework for learning humans' latent preferences in route recommendation, yet no approach has successfully addressed planetary-scale problems with hundreds of millions of states and demonstration trajectories. In this paper, we introduce scaling techniques based on graph compression, spatial parallelization, and improved initialization conditions inspired by a connection to eigenvector algorithms. We revisit classic IRL methods in the routing context, and make the key observation that there exists a trade-off between the use of cheap, deterministic planners and expensive yet robust stochastic policies. This insight is leveraged in Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), a new generalization of classic IRL algorithms that provides fine-grained control over performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our contributions culminate in a policy that achieves a 16-24% improvement in route quality at a global scale, and to the best of our knowledge, represents the largest published study of IRL algorithms in a real-world setting to date. We conclude by conducting an ablation study of key components, presenting negative results from alternative eigenvalue solvers, and identifying opportunities to further improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies.

The convergence of embodied agents and large language models (LLMs) has brought significant advancements to embodied instruction following. Particularly, the strong reasoning capabilities of LLMs make it possible for robots to perform long-horizon tasks without expensive annotated demonstrations. However, public benchmarks for testing the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of language-conditioned robots in various scenarios are still missing. To fill this gap, this work focuses on the tabletop manipulation task and releases a simulation benchmark, LoHoRavens, which covers various long-horizon reasoning aspects spanning color, size, space, arithmetics and reference. Furthermore, there is a key modality bridging problem for long-horizon manipulation tasks with LLMs: how to incorporate the observation feedback during robot execution for the LLM's closed-loop planning, which is however less studied by prior work. We investigate two methods of bridging the modality gap: caption generation and learnable interface for incorporating explicit and implicit observation feedback to the LLM, respectively. These methods serve as the two baselines for our proposed benchmark. Experiments show that both methods struggle to solve some tasks, indicating long-horizon manipulation tasks are still challenging for current popular models. We expect the proposed public benchmark and baselines can help the community develop better models for long-horizon tabletop manipulation tasks.

We introduce LUMOS, a language-conditioned multi-task imitation learning framework for robotics. LUMOS learns skills by practicing them over many long-horizon rollouts in the latent space of a learned world model and transfers these skills zero-shot to a real robot. By learning on-policy in the latent space of the learned world model, our algorithm mitigates policy-induced distribution shift which most offline imitation learning methods suffer from. LUMOS learns from unstructured play data with fewer than 1% hindsight language annotations but is steerable with language commands at test time. We achieve this coherent long-horizon performance by combining latent planning with both image- and language-based hindsight goal relabeling during training, and by optimizing an intrinsic reward defined in the latent space of the world model over multiple time steps, effectively reducing covariate shift. In experiments on the difficult long-horizon CALVIN benchmark, LUMOS outperforms prior learning-based methods with comparable approaches on chained multi-task evaluations. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to learn a language-conditioned continuous visuomotor control for a real-world robot within an offline world model. Videos, dataset and code are available at http://lumos.cs.uni-freiburg.de.

Language-guided long-horizon mobile manipulation has long been a grand challenge in embodied semantic reasoning, generalizable manipulation, and adaptive locomotion. Three fundamental limitations hinder progress: First, although large language models have improved spatial reasoning and task planning through semantic priors, existing implementations remain confined to tabletop scenarios, failing to address the constrained perception and limited actuation ranges of mobile platforms. Second, current manipulation strategies exhibit insufficient generalization when confronted with the diverse object configurations encountered in open-world environments. Third, while crucial for practical deployment, the dual requirement of maintaining high platform maneuverability alongside precise end-effector control in unstructured settings remains understudied. In this work, we present ODYSSEY, a unified mobile manipulation framework for agile quadruped robots equipped with manipulators, which seamlessly integrates high-level task planning with low-level whole-body control. To address the challenge of egocentric perception in language-conditioned tasks, we introduce a hierarchical planner powered by a vision-language model, enabling long-horizon instruction decomposition and precise action execution. At the control level, our novel whole-body policy achieves robust coordination across challenging terrains. We further present the first benchmark for long-horizon mobile manipulation, evaluating diverse indoor and outdoor scenarios. Through successful sim-to-real transfer, we demonstrate the system's generalization and robustness in real-world deployments, underscoring the practicality of legged manipulators in unstructured environments. Our work advances the feasibility of generalized robotic assistants capable of complex, dynamic tasks. Our project page: https://kaijwang.github.io/odyssey.github.io/

Recent advancements in long-context Large Language Models (LLMs) have primarily concentrated on processing extended input contexts, resulting in significant strides in long-context comprehension. However, the equally critical aspect of generating long-form outputs has received comparatively less attention. This paper advocates for a paradigm shift in NLP research toward addressing the challenges of long-output generation. Tasks such as novel writing, long-term planning, and complex reasoning require models to understand extensive contexts and produce coherent, contextually rich, and logically consistent extended text. These demands highlight a critical gap in current LLM capabilities. We underscore the importance of this under-explored domain and call for focused efforts to develop foundational LLMs tailored for generating high-quality, long-form outputs, which hold immense potential for real-world applications.

This paper investigates the rationality of large language models (LLMs) in strategic decision-making contexts, specifically within the framework of game theory. We evaluate several state-of-the-art LLMs across a spectrum of complete-information and incomplete-information games. Our findings reveal that LLMs frequently deviate from rational strategies, particularly as the complexity of the game increases with larger payoff matrices or deeper sequential trees. To address these limitations, we design multiple game-theoretic workflows that guide the reasoning and decision-making processes of LLMs. These workflows aim to enhance the models' ability to compute Nash Equilibria and make rational choices, even under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Experimental results demonstrate that the adoption of these workflows significantly improves the rationality and robustness of LLMs in game-theoretic tasks. Specifically, with the workflow, LLMs exhibit marked improvements in identifying optimal strategies, achieving near-optimal allocations in negotiation scenarios, and reducing susceptibility to exploitation during negotiations. Furthermore, we explore the meta-strategic considerations of whether it is rational for agents to adopt such workflows, recognizing that the decision to use or forgo the workflow constitutes a game-theoretic issue in itself. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of LLMs' decision-making capabilities in strategic contexts and provides insights into enhancing their rationality through structured workflows. The findings have implications for the development of more robust and strategically sound AI agents capable of navigating complex interactive environments. Code and data supporting this study are available at https://github.com/Wenyueh/game_theory.

Traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are effective for handling sequential data but have limitations such as gradient vanishing and difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies, which can impact their performance in dynamic and risky environments like stock trading. To address these limitations, this study explores the usage of the newly introduced Extended Long Short Term Memory (xLSTM) network in combination with a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for automated stock trading. Our proposed method utilizes xLSTM networks in both actor and critic components, enabling effective handling of time series data and dynamic market environments. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), with its ability to balance exploration and exploitation, is employed to optimize the trading strategy. Experiments were conducted using financial data from major tech companies over a comprehensive timeline, demonstrating that the xLSTM-based model outperforms LSTM-based methods in key trading evaluation metrics, including cumulative return, average profitability per trade, maximum earning rate, maximum pullback, and Sharpe ratio. These findings mark the potential of xLSTM for enhancing DRL-based stock trading systems.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used as autonomous agents capable of performing complicated tasks. However, they lack the ability to perform reliable long-horizon planning on their own. This paper bridges this gap by introducing the Planning Copilot, a chatbot that integrates multiple planning tools and allows users to invoke them through instructions in natural language. The Planning Copilot leverages the Model Context Protocol (MCP), a recently developed standard for connecting LLMs with external tools and systems. This approach allows using any LLM that supports MCP without domain-specific fine-tuning. Our Planning Copilot supports common planning tasks such as checking the syntax of planning problems, selecting an appropriate planner, calling it, validating the plan it generates, and simulating their execution. We empirically evaluate the ability of our Planning Copilot to perform these tasks using three open-source LLMs. The results show that the Planning Copilot highly outperforms using the same LLMs without the planning tools. We also conducted a limited qualitative comparison of our tool against Chat GPT-5, a very recent commercial LLM. Our results shows that our Planning Copilot significantly outperforms GPT-5 despite relying on a much smaller LLM. This suggests dedicated planning tools may be an effective way to enable LLMs to perform planning tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved considerable performance across various agentic planning tasks. However, traditional agent planning approaches adopt a "flood irrigation" methodology that indiscriminately injects gold trajectories, external feedback, and domain knowledge into agent models. This practice overlooks the fundamental human cognitive principle of situational self-awareness during decision-making-the ability to dynamically assess situational demands and strategically employ resources during decision-making. We propose agentic knowledgeable self-awareness to address this gap, a novel paradigm enabling LLM-based agents to autonomously regulate knowledge utilization. Specifically, we propose KnowSelf, a data-centric approach that applies agents with knowledgeable self-awareness like humans. Concretely, we devise a heuristic situation judgement criterion to mark special tokens on the agent's self-explored trajectories for collecting training data. Through a two-stage training process, the agent model can switch between different situations by generating specific special tokens, achieving optimal planning effects with minimal costs. Our experiments demonstrate that KnowSelf can outperform various strong baselines on different tasks and models with minimal use of external knowledge. Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/KnowSelf.

In long-horizon tasks, recent agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) face a significant challenge that sparse, outcome-based rewards make it difficult to assign credit to intermediate steps. Previous methods mainly focus on creating dense reward signals to guide learning, either through traditional reinforcement learning techniques like inverse reinforcement learning or by using Process Reward Models for step-by-step feedback. In this paper, we identify a fundamental problem in the learning dynamics of LLMs: the magnitude of policy gradients is inherently coupled with the entropy, which leads to inefficient small updates for confident correct actions and potentially destabilizes large updates for uncertain ones. To resolve this, we propose Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients (EMPG), a framework that re-calibrates the learning signal based on step-wise uncertainty and the final task outcome. EMPG amplifies updates for confident correct actions, penalizes confident errors, and attenuates updates from uncertain steps to stabilize exploration. We further introduce a bonus term for future clarity that encourages agents to find more predictable solution paths. Through comprehensive experiments on three challenging agent tasks, WebShop, ALFWorld, and Deep Search, we demonstrate that EMPG achieves substantial performance gains and significantly outperforms strong policy gradient baselines. Project page is at https://empgseed-seed.github.io/

Large Language Models (LLMs) were shown to struggle with long-term planning, which may be caused by the limited way in which they explore the space of possible solutions. We propose an architecture where a Reinforcement Learning (RL) Agent guides an LLM's space exploration: (1) the Agent has access to domain-specific information, and can therefore make decisions about the quality of candidate solutions based on specific and relevant metrics, which were not explicitly considered by the LLM's training objective; (2) the LLM can focus on generating immediate next steps, without the need for long-term planning. We allow non-linear reasoning by exploring alternative paths and backtracking. We evaluate this architecture on the program equivalence task, and compare it against Chain of Thought (CoT) and Tree of Thoughts (ToT). We assess both the downstream task, denoting the binary classification, and the intermediate reasoning steps. Our approach compares positively against CoT and ToT.

Diffusion models have shown great promise in decision-making, also known as diffusion planning. However, the slow inference speeds limit their potential for broader real-world applications. Here, we introduce Habi, a general framework that transforms powerful but slow diffusion planning models into fast decision-making models, which mimics the cognitive process in the brain that costly goal-directed behavior gradually transitions to efficient habitual behavior with repetitive practice. Even using a laptop CPU, the habitized model can achieve an average 800+ Hz decision-making frequency (faster than previous diffusion planners by orders of magnitude) on standard offline reinforcement learning benchmarks D4RL, while maintaining comparable or even higher performance compared to its corresponding diffusion planner. Our work proposes a fresh perspective of leveraging powerful diffusion models for real-world decision-making tasks. We also provide robust evaluations and analysis, offering insights from both biological and engineering perspectives for efficient and effective decision-making.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in handling complex tasks through long-chain reasoning. However, the extensive reasoning steps involved can significantly increase computational costs, posing challenges for real-world deployment. Recent efforts have focused on optimizing reasoning efficiency by shortening the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning processes through various approaches, such as length-aware prompt engineering, supervised fine-tuning on CoT data with variable lengths, and reinforcement learning with length penalties. Although these methods effectively reduce reasoning length, they still necessitate an initial reasoning phase. More recent approaches have attempted to integrate long-chain and short-chain reasoning abilities into a single model, yet they still rely on manual control to toggle between short and long CoT. In this work, we propose a novel approach that autonomously switches between short and long reasoning chains based on problem complexity. Our method begins with supervised fine-tuning of the base model to equip both long-chain and short-chain reasoning abilities. We then employ reinforcement learning to further balance short and long CoT generation while maintaining accuracy through two key strategies: first, integrating reinforcement learning with a long-short adaptive group-wise reward strategy to assess prompt complexity and provide corresponding rewards; second, implementing a logit-based reasoning mode switching loss to optimize the model's initial token choice, thereby guiding the selection of the reasoning type. Evaluations on mathematical datasets demonstrate that our model can dynamically switch between long-chain and short-chain reasoning modes without substantially sacrificing performance. This advancement enhances the practicality of reasoning in large language models for real-world applications.

The release of nuPlan marks a new era in vehicle motion planning research, offering the first large-scale real-world dataset and evaluation schemes requiring both precise short-term planning and long-horizon ego-forecasting. Existing systems struggle to simultaneously meet both requirements. Indeed, we find that these tasks are fundamentally misaligned and should be addressed independently. We further assess the current state of closed-loop planning in the field, revealing the limitations of learning-based methods in complex real-world scenarios and the value of simple rule-based priors such as centerline selection through lane graph search algorithms. More surprisingly, for the open-loop sub-task, we observe that the best results are achieved when using only this centerline as scene context (\ie, ignoring all information regarding the map and other agents). Combining these insights, we propose an extremely simple and efficient planner which outperforms an extensive set of competitors, winning the nuPlan planning challenge 2023.

Recent work has demonstrated the effectiveness of formulating decision making as a supervised learning problem on offline-collected trajectories. However, the benefits of performing sequence modeling on trajectory data is not yet clear. In this work we investigate if sequence modeling has the capability to condense trajectories into useful representations that can contribute to policy learning. To achieve this, we adopt a two-stage framework that first summarizes trajectories with sequence modeling techniques, and then employs these representations to learn a policy along with a desired goal. This design allows many existing supervised offline RL methods to be considered as specific instances of our framework. Within this framework, we introduce Goal-Conditioned Predicitve Coding (GCPC), an approach that brings powerful trajectory representations and leads to performant policies. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations on AntMaze, FrankaKitchen and Locomotion environments, and observe that sequence modeling has a significant impact on some decision making tasks. In addition, we demonstrate that GCPC learns a goal-conditioned latent representation about the future, which serves as an "implicit planner", and enables competitive performance on all three benchmarks.

The observed similarities in the behavior of humans and Large Language Models (LLMs) have prompted researchers to consider the potential of using LLMs as models of human cognition. However, several significant challenges must be addressed before LLMs can be legitimately regarded as cognitive models. For instance, LLMs are trained on far more data than humans typically encounter, and may have been directly trained on human data in specific cognitive tasks or aligned with human preferences. Consequently, the origins of these behavioral similarities are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a novel way to enhance the utility of LLMs as cognitive models. This approach involves (i) leveraging computationally equivalent tasks that both an LLM and a rational agent need to master for solving a cognitive problem and (ii) examining the specific task distributions required for an LLM to exhibit human-like behaviors. We apply this approach to decision-making -- specifically risky and intertemporal choice -- where the key computationally equivalent task is the arithmetic of expected value calculations. We show that an LLM pretrained on an ecologically valid arithmetic dataset, which we call Arithmetic-GPT, predicts human behavior better than many traditional cognitive models. Pretraining LLMs on ecologically valid arithmetic datasets is sufficient to produce a strong correspondence between these models and human decision-making. Our results also suggest that LLMs used as cognitive models should be carefully investigated via ablation studies of the pretraining data.

We present VAPO, Value-based Augmented Proximal Policy Optimization framework for reasoning models., a novel framework tailored for reasoning models within the value-based paradigm. Benchmarked the AIME 2024 dataset, VAPO, built on the Qwen 32B pre-trained model, attains a state-of-the-art score of 60.4. In direct comparison under identical experimental settings, VAPO outperforms the previously reported results of DeepSeek-R1-Zero-Qwen-32B and DAPO by more than 10 points. The training process of VAPO stands out for its stability and efficiency. It reaches state-of-the-art performance within a mere 5,000 steps. Moreover, across multiple independent runs, no training crashes occur, underscoring its reliability. This research delves into long chain-of-thought (long-CoT) reasoning using a value-based reinforcement learning framework. We pinpoint three key challenges that plague value-based methods: value model bias, the presence of heterogeneous sequence lengths, and the sparsity of reward signals. Through systematic design, VAPO offers an integrated solution that effectively alleviates these challenges, enabling enhanced performance in long-CoT reasoning tasks.

This paper addresses the critical disconnect between prediction and decision quality in portfolio optimization by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with decision-focused learning. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that minimizing the prediction error alone leads to suboptimal portfolio decisions. We aim to exploit the representational power of LLMs for investment decisions. An attention mechanism processes asset relationships, temporal dependencies, and macro variables, which are then directly integrated into a portfolio optimization layer. This enables the model to capture complex market dynamics and align predictions with the decision objectives. Extensive experiments on S\&P100 and DOW30 datasets show that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models. In addition, gradient-based analyses show that our model prioritizes the assets most crucial to decision making, thus mitigating the effects of prediction errors on portfolio performance. These findings underscore the value of integrating decision objectives into predictions for more robust and context-aware portfolio management.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a range of text-generation tasks. However, LLMs still struggle with problems requiring multi-step decision-making and environmental feedback, such as online shopping, scientific reasoning, and mathematical problem-solving. Unlike pure text data, collecting large-scale decision-making data is challenging. Moreover, many powerful LLMs are only accessible through APIs, which hinders their fine-tuning for agent tasks due to cost and complexity. To address LLM agents' limitations, we propose a framework that can automatically learn a reward model from the environment without human annotations. This model can be used to evaluate the action trajectories of LLM agents and provide heuristics for task planning. Specifically, our approach involves employing one LLM-based agent to navigate an environment randomly, generating diverse action trajectories. Subsequently, a separate LLM is leveraged to assign a task intent and synthesize a negative response alongside the correct response for each trajectory. These triplets (task intent, positive response, and negative response) are then utilized as training data to optimize a reward model capable of scoring action trajectories. The effectiveness and generalizability of our framework are demonstrated through evaluations conducted on different agent benchmarks. In conclusion, our proposed framework represents a significant advancement in enhancing LLM agents' decision-making capabilities. By automating the learning of reward models, we overcome the challenges of data scarcity and API limitations, potentially revolutionizing the application of LLMs in complex and interactive environments. This research paves the way for more sophisticated AI agents capable of tackling a wide range of real-world problems requiring multi-step decision-making.

With the advancements in hardware, software, and large language model technologies, the interaction between humans and operating systems has evolved from the command-line interface to the rapidly emerging AI agent interactions. Building an operating system (OS) agent capable of executing user instructions and faithfully following user desires is becoming a reality. In this technical report, we present ColorAgent, an OS agent designed to engage in long-horizon, robust interactions with the environment while also enabling personalized and proactive user interaction. To enable long-horizon interactions with the environment, we enhance the model's capabilities through step-wise reinforcement learning and self-evolving training, while also developing a tailored multi-agent framework that ensures generality, consistency, and robustness. In terms of user interaction, we explore personalized user intent recognition and proactive engagement, positioning the OS agent not merely as an automation tool but as a warm, collaborative partner. We evaluate ColorAgent on the AndroidWorld and AndroidLab benchmarks, achieving success rates of 77.2% and 50.7%, respectively, establishing a new state of the art. Nonetheless, we note that current benchmarks are insufficient for a comprehensive evaluation of OS agents and propose further exploring directions in future work, particularly in the areas of evaluation paradigms, agent collaboration, and security. Our code is available at https://github.com/MadeAgents/mobile-use.

Solving complex long-horizon robotic manipulation problems requires sophisticated high-level planning capabilities, the ability to reason about the physical world, and reactively choose appropriate motor skills. Vision-language models (VLMs) pretrained on Internet data could in principle offer a framework for tackling such problems. However, in their current form, VLMs lack both the nuanced understanding of intricate physics required for robotic manipulation and the ability to reason over long horizons to address error compounding issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel test-time computation framework that enhances VLMs' physical reasoning capabilities for multi-stage manipulation tasks. At its core, our approach iteratively improves a pretrained VLM with a "reflection" mechanism - it uses a generative model to imagine future world states, leverages these predictions to guide action selection, and critically reflects on potential suboptimalities to refine its reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art commercial VLMs as well as other post-training approaches such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Videos are available at https://reflect-vlm.github.io.

We study reward-free reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation, where the agent works in two phases: (1) in the exploration phase, the agent interacts with the environment but cannot access the reward; and (2) in the planning phase, the agent is given a reward function and is expected to find a near-optimal policy based on samples collected in the exploration phase. The sample complexities of existing reward-free algorithms have a polynomial dependence on the planning horizon, which makes them intractable for long planning horizon RL problems. In this paper, we propose a new reward-free algorithm for learning linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the transition probability can be parameterized as a linear combination of known feature mappings. At the core of our algorithm is uncertainty-weighted value-targeted regression with exploration-driven pseudo-reward and a high-order moment estimator for the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. When the total reward is bounded by 1, we show that our algorithm only needs to explore tilde O( d^2varepsilon^{-2}) episodes to find an varepsilon-optimal policy, where d is the dimension of the feature mapping. The sample complexity of our algorithm only has a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon and therefore is ``horizon-free''. In addition, we provide an Omega(d^2varepsilon^{-2}) sample complexity lower bound, which matches the sample complexity of our algorithm up to logarithmic factors, suggesting that our algorithm is optimal.

The ability to achieve long-term goals is a key challenge in the current development of large language models (LLMs). To address this, pre-trained LLMs can be fine-tuned with reinforcement learning (RL) to explore solutions that optimize a given goal. However, exploration with LLMs is difficult, as a balance has to be struck between discovering new solutions and staying close enough to the pre-trained model, so as not to degrade basic capabilities. This is typically controlled with a Kullback-Leibler (KL) penalty. In this paper, we investigate the exploration dynamics of a small language model on a simple arithmetic task. We show how varying degrees of pre-training influence exploration and demonstrate the importance of "critical tokens" which have a dramatic impact on the final outcome. Consequently, we introduce a simple modification to the KL penalty that favors exploration on critical tokens, increasing the efficiency of the RL fine-tuning stage.

Continuing advances in frontier model research are paving the way for widespread deployment of AI agents. Meanwhile, global interest in building large, complex systems in software, manufacturing, energy and logistics has never been greater. Although AI driven system engineering holds tremendous promise, the static benchmarks dominating agent evaluations today fail to capture the crucial skills required for implementing dynamic systems, such as managing uncertain trade-offs and ensuring proactive adaptability. This position paper advocates for training and evaluating AI agents' system engineering abilities through automation-oriented sandbox games-particularly Factorio. By directing research efforts in this direction, we can equip AI agents with the specialized reasoning and long-horizon planning necessary to design, maintain, and optimize tomorrow's most demanding engineering projects.

Language models (LMs) may lead their users to make suboptimal downstream decisions when they confidently hallucinate. This issue can be mitigated by having the LM verbally convey the probability that its claims are correct, but existing models cannot produce text with calibrated confidence statements. Through the lens of decision-making, we formalize linguistic calibration for long-form generations: an LM is linguistically calibrated if its generations enable its users to make calibrated probabilistic predictions. This definition enables a training framework where a supervised finetuning step bootstraps an LM to emit long-form generations with confidence statements such as "I estimate a 30% chance of..." or "I am certain that...", followed by a reinforcement learning step which rewards generations that enable a user to provide calibrated answers to related questions. We linguistically calibrate Llama 2 7B and find in automated and human evaluations of long-form generations that it is significantly more calibrated than strong finetuned factuality baselines with comparable accuracy. These findings generalize under distribution shift on question-answering and under a significant task shift to person biography generation. Our results demonstrate that long-form generations may be calibrated end-to-end by constructing an objective in the space of the predictions that users make in downstream decision-making.

Existing methods for vision-language task planning excel in short-horizon tasks but often fall short in complex, long-horizon planning within dynamic environments. These challenges primarily arise from the difficulty of effectively training models to produce high-quality reasoning processes for long-horizon tasks. To address this, we propose Structured Preference Optimization (SPO), which aims to enhance reasoning and action selection in long-horizon task planning through structured preference evaluation and optimized training strategies. Specifically, SPO introduces: 1) Preference-Based Scoring and Optimization, which systematically evaluates reasoning chains based on task relevance, visual grounding, and historical consistency; and 2) Curriculum-Guided Training, where the model progressively adapts from simple to complex tasks, improving its generalization ability in long-horizon scenarios and enhancing reasoning robustness. To advance research in vision-language long-horizon task planning, we introduce ExtendaBench, a comprehensive benchmark covering 1,509 tasks across VirtualHome and Habitat 2.0, categorized into ultra-short, short, medium, and long tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that SPO significantly improves reasoning quality and final decision accuracy, outperforming prior methods on long-horizon tasks and underscoring the effectiveness of preference-driven optimization in vision-language task planning. Specifically, SPO achieves a +5.98% GCR and +4.68% SR improvement in VirtualHome and a +3.30% GCR and +2.11% SR improvement in Habitat over the best-performing baselines.

Recent Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have shown substantially improved reasoning capabilities over traditional Large Language Models (LLMs) by incorporating extended thinking processes prior to producing final responses. However, excessively lengthy thinking introduces substantial overhead in terms of token consumption and latency, which is particularly unnecessary for simple queries. In this work, we introduce Large Hybrid-Reasoning Models (LHRMs), the first kind of model capable of adaptively determining whether to perform thinking based on the contextual information of user queries. To achieve this, we propose a two-stage training pipeline comprising Hybrid Fine-Tuning (HFT) as a cold start, followed by online reinforcement learning with the proposed Hybrid Group Policy Optimization (HGPO) to implicitly learn to select the appropriate thinking mode. Furthermore, we introduce a metric called Hybrid Accuracy to quantitatively assess the model's capability for hybrid thinking. Extensive experimental results show that LHRMs can adaptively perform hybrid thinking on queries of varying difficulty and type. It outperforms existing LRMs and LLMs in reasoning and general capabilities while significantly improving efficiency. Together, our work advocates for a reconsideration of the appropriate use of extended thinking processes and provides a solid starting point for building hybrid thinking systems.

Reasoning models have recently shown remarkable progress in domains such as math and coding. However, their expert-level abilities in math and coding contrast sharply with their performance in long-horizon, interactive tasks such as web navigation and computer/phone-use. Inspired by literature on human cognition, we argue that current AI agents need ''vicarious trial and error'' - the capacity to mentally simulate alternative futures before acting - in order to enhance their understanding and performance in complex interactive environments. We introduce Dyna-Mind, a two-stage training framework that explicitly teaches (V)LM agents to integrate such simulation into their reasoning. In stage 1, we introduce Reasoning with Simulations (ReSim), which trains the agent to generate structured reasoning traces from expanded search trees built from real experience gathered through environment interactions. ReSim thus grounds the agent's reasoning in faithful world dynamics and equips it with the ability to anticipate future states in its reasoning. In stage 2, we propose Dyna-GRPO, an online reinforcement learning method to further strengthen the agent's simulation and decision-making ability by using both outcome rewards and intermediate states as feedback from real rollouts. Experiments on two synthetic benchmarks (Sokoban and ALFWorld) and one realistic benchmark (AndroidWorld) demonstrate that (1) ReSim effectively infuses simulation ability into AI agents, and (2) Dyna-GRPO leverages outcome and interaction-level signals to learn better policies for long-horizon, planning-intensive tasks. Together, these results highlight the central role of simulation in enabling AI agents to reason, plan, and act more effectively in the ever more challenging environments.

Countless decisions shape our daily lives, and it is paramount to understand the how and why behind these choices. In this paper, we introduce a new LLM decision-making framework called STRUX, which enhances LLM decision-making by providing structured explanations. These include favorable and adverse facts related to the decision, along with their respective strengths. STRUX begins by distilling lengthy information into a concise table of key facts. It then employs a series of self-reflection steps to determine which of these facts are pivotal, categorizing them as either favorable or adverse in relation to a specific decision. Lastly, we fine-tune an LLM to identify and prioritize these key facts to optimize decision-making. STRUX has been evaluated on the challenging task of forecasting stock investment decisions based on earnings call transcripts and demonstrated superior performance against strong baselines. It enhances decision transparency by allowing users to understand the impact of different factors, representing a meaningful step towards practical decision-making with LLMs.

Enabling robots to execute long-horizon manipulation tasks from free-form language instructions remains a fundamental challenge in embodied AI. While vision-language models (VLMs) have shown promise as high-level planners, their deployment in the real world is hindered by two gaps: (i) the scarcity of large-scale, sequential manipulation data that couples natural language with multi-step action plans, and (ii) the absence of dense, interpretable rewards for fine-tuning VLMs on planning objectives. To address these issues, we propose REVER, a framework that empowers VLMs to generate and validate long-horizon manipulation plans from natural language instructions in real-world scenarios. Under REVER we train and release RoboFarseer, a VLM incentivized to emit chain-of-thought that perform temporal and spatial reasoning, ensuring physically plausible and logically coherent plans. To obtain training data, we leverage the Universal Manipulation Interface framework to capture hardware-agnostic demonstrations of atomic skills. An automated annotation engine converts each demonstration into vision-instruction-plan triplet. We introduce a verifiable reward that scores the generated plan by its ordered bipartite matching overlap with the ground-truth skill sequence. At run time, the fine-tuned VLM functions both as a planner and as a monitor, verifying step-wise completion. RoboFarseer matches or exceeds the performance of proprietary models that are orders of magnitude larger, while on open-ended planning it surpasses the best baseline by more than 40%. In real-world, long-horizon tasks, the complete system boosts overall success by roughly 60% compared with the same low-level controller without the planner. We will open-source both the dataset and the trained model upon publication.

We study regret minimization for reinforcement learning (RL) in Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs) with context in hindsight. We design a novel model-based algorithmic framework which can be instantiated with both a model-optimistic and a value-optimistic solver. We prove an O(mathsf{Var^star M Gamma S A K}) regret bound where O hides logarithm factors, M is the number of contexts, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, K is the number of episodes, Gamma le S is the maximum transition degree of any state-action pair, and Var^star is a variance quantity describing the determinism of the LMDP. The regret bound only scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound for LMDP. This is also the first problem-dependent regret bound for LMDP. Key in our proof is an analysis of the total variance of alpha vectors (a generalization of value functions), which is handled with a truncation method. We complement our positive result with a novel Omega(mathsf{Var^star M S A K}) regret lower bound with Gamma = 2, which shows our upper bound minimax optimal when Gamma is a constant for the class of variance-bounded LMDPs. Our lower bound relies on new constructions of hard instances and an argument inspired by the symmetrization technique from theoretical computer science, both of which are technically different from existing lower bound proof for MDPs, and thus can be of independent interest.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have become a cornerstone in robotic policy learning, leveraging large-scale multimodal data for robust and scalable control. However, existing VLA frameworks primarily address short-horizon tasks, and their effectiveness on long-horizon, multi-step robotic manipulation remains limited due to challenges in skill chaining and subtask dependencies. In this work, we introduce Long-VLA, the first end-to-end VLA model specifically designed for long-horizon robotic tasks. Our approach features a novel phase-aware input masking strategy that adaptively segments each subtask into moving and interaction phases, enabling the model to focus on phase-relevant sensory cues and enhancing subtask compatibility. This unified strategy preserves the scalability and data efficiency of VLA training, and our architecture-agnostic module can be seamlessly integrated into existing VLA models. We further propose the L-CALVIN benchmark to systematically evaluate long-horizon manipulation. Extensive experiments on both simulated and real-world tasks demonstrate that Long-VLA significantly outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods, establishing a new baseline for long-horizon robotic control.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated their proficiency in complex reasoning tasks, their performance in dynamic, interactive, and competitive scenarios - such as business strategy and stock market analysis - remains underexplored. To bridge this gap, we formally explore the dynamic reasoning capabilities of LLMs for decision-making in rapidly evolving environments. We introduce two game theory-based pilot challenges that mirror the complexities of real-world dynamic decision-making. These challenges are well-defined, enabling clear, controllable, and precise evaluation of LLMs' dynamic reasoning abilities. Through extensive experiments, we find that existing reasoning methods tend to falter in dynamic settings that require k-level thinking - a key concept not tackled by previous works. To address this, we propose a novel reasoning approach for LLMs, named "K-Level Reasoning". This approach adopts the perspective of rivals to recursively employ k-level thinking based on available historical information, which significantly improves the prediction accuracy of rivals' subsequent moves and informs more strategic decision-making. This research not only sets a robust quantitative benchmark for the assessment of dynamic reasoning but also markedly enhances the proficiency of LLMs in dynamic contexts.

Does continued scaling of large language models (LLMs) yield diminishing returns? Real-world value often stems from the length of task an agent can complete. We start this work by observing the simple but counterintuitive fact that marginal gains in single-step accuracy can compound into exponential improvements in the length of a task a model can successfully complete. Then, we argue that failures of LLMs when simple tasks are made longer arise from mistakes in execution, rather than an inability to reason. We propose isolating execution capability, by explicitly providing the knowledge and plan needed to solve a long-horizon task. We find that larger models can correctly execute significantly more turns even when small models have 100\% single-turn accuracy. We observe that the per-step accuracy of models degrades as the number of steps increases. This is not just due to long-context limitations -- curiously, we observe a self-conditioning effect -- models become more likely to make mistakes when the context contains their errors from prior turns. Self-conditioning does not reduce by just scaling the model size. In contrast, recent thinking models do not self-condition, and can also execute much longer tasks in a single turn. We conclude by benchmarking frontier thinking models on the length of task they can execute in a single turn. Overall, by focusing on the ability to execute, we hope to reconcile debates on how LLMs can solve complex reasoning problems yet fail at simple tasks when made longer, and highlight the massive benefits of scaling model size and sequential test-time compute for long-horizon tasks.

Though significant advancements have been achieved in developing long-context large language models (LLMs), the compromised quality of LLM-synthesized data for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) often affects the long-context performance of SFT models and leads to inherent limitations. In principle, reinforcement learning (RL) with appropriate reward signals can further enhance models' capacities. However, how to obtain reliable rewards in long-context scenarios remains unexplored. To this end, we propose LongReward, a novel method that utilizes an off-the-shelf LLM to provide rewards for long-context model responses from four human-valued dimensions: helpfulness, logicality, faithfulness, and completeness, each with a carefully designed assessment pipeline. By combining LongReward and offline RL algorithm DPO, we are able to effectively improve long-context SFT models. Our experiments indicate that LongReward not only significantly improves models' long-context performance but also enhances their ability to follow short instructions. We also find that long-context DPO with LongReward and conventional short-context DPO can be used together without hurting either one's performance.

Can scaling transform reasoning? In this work, we explore the untapped potential of scaling Long Chain-of-Thought (Long-CoT) data to 1000k samples, pioneering the development of a slow-thinking model, RedStar. Through extensive experiments with various LLMs and different sizes, we uncover the ingredients for specialization and scale for Long-CoT training. Surprisingly, even smaller models show significant performance gains with limited data, revealing the sample efficiency of Long-CoT and the critical role of sample difficulty in the learning process. Our findings demonstrate that Long-CoT reasoning can be effectively triggered with just a few thousand examples, while larger models achieve unparalleled improvements. We also introduce reinforcement learning (RL)-scale training as a promising direction for advancing slow-thinking systems. RedStar shines across domains: on the MATH-Hard benchmark, RedStar-code-math boosts performance from 66.2\% to 81.6\%, and on the USA Math Olympiad (AIME), it solves 46.7\% of problems using only 21k mixed-code-math datasets. In multimodal tasks like GeoQA and MathVista-GEO, RedStar-Geo achieves competitive results with minimal Long-CoT data, outperforming other slow-thinking systems like QvQ-Preview. Compared to QwQ, RedStar strikes the perfect balance between reasoning and generalizability. Our work highlights that, with careful tuning, scaling Long-CoT can unlock extraordinary reasoning capabilities-even with limited dataset and set a new standard for slow-thinking models across diverse challenges. Our data and models are released at https://huggingface.co/RedStar-Reasoning.

Humans can perform complex tasks with long-term objectives by planning, reasoning, and forecasting outcomes of actions. For embodied agents to achieve similar capabilities, they must gain knowledge of the environment transferable to novel scenarios with a limited budget of additional trial and error. Learning-based approaches, such as deep RL, can discover and take advantage of inherent regularities and characteristics of the application domain from data, and continuously improve their performances, however at a cost of large amounts of training data. This thesis explores the development of data-driven techniques for spatial reasoning and planning tasks, focusing on enhancing learning efficiency, interpretability, and transferability across novel scenarios. Four key contributions are made. 1) CALVIN, a differential planner that learns interpretable models of the world for long-term planning. It successfully navigated partially observable 3D environments, such as mazes and indoor rooms, by learning the rewards and state transitions from expert demonstrations. 2) SOAP, an RL algorithm that discovers options unsupervised for long-horizon tasks. Options segment a task into subtasks and enable consistent execution of the subtask. SOAP showed robust performances on history-conditional corridor tasks as well as classical benchmarks such as Atari. 3) LangProp, a code optimisation framework using LLMs to solve embodied agent problems that require reasoning by treating code as learnable policies. The framework successfully generated interpretable code with comparable or superior performance to human-written experts in the CARLA autonomous driving benchmark. 4) Voggite, an embodied agent with a vision-to-action transformer backend that solves complex tasks in Minecraft. It achieved third place in the MineRL BASALT Competition by identifying action triggers to segment tasks into multiple stages.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT