Daily Papers

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

The success of the text-guided diffusion model has inspired the development and release of numerous powerful diffusion models within the open-source community. These models are typically fine-tuned on various expert datasets, showcasing diverse denoising capabilities. Leveraging multiple high-quality models to produce stronger generation ability is valuable, but has not been extensively studied. Existing methods primarily adopt parameter merging strategies to produce a new static model. However, they overlook the fact that the divergent denoising capabilities of the models may dynamically change across different states, such as when experiencing different prompts, initial noises, denoising steps, and spatial locations. In this paper, we propose a novel ensembling method, Adaptive Feature Aggregation (AFA), which dynamically adjusts the contributions of multiple models at the feature level according to various states (i.e., prompts, initial noises, denoising steps, and spatial locations), thereby keeping the advantages of multiple diffusion models, while suppressing their disadvantages. Specifically, we design a lightweight Spatial-Aware Block-Wise (SABW) feature aggregator that adaptive aggregates the block-wise intermediate features from multiple U-Net denoisers into a unified one. The core idea lies in dynamically producing an individual attention map for each model's features by comprehensively considering various states. It is worth noting that only SABW is trainable with about 50 million parameters, while other models are frozen. Both the quantitative and qualitative experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed Adaptive Feature Aggregation method. The code is available at https://github.com/tenvence/afa/.

Image denoising is a fundamental problem in computational photography, where achieving high perception with low distortion is highly demanding. Current methods either struggle with perceptual quality or suffer from significant distortion. Recently, the emerging diffusion model has achieved state-of-the-art performance in various tasks and demonstrates great potential for image denoising. However, stimulating diffusion models for image denoising is not straightforward and requires solving several critical problems. For one thing, the input inconsistency hinders the connection between diffusion models and image denoising. For another, the content inconsistency between the generated image and the desired denoised image introduces distortion. To tackle these problems, we present a novel strategy called the Diffusion Model for Image Denoising (DMID) by understanding and rethinking the diffusion model from a denoising perspective. Our DMID strategy includes an adaptive embedding method that embeds the noisy image into a pre-trained unconditional diffusion model and an adaptive ensembling method that reduces distortion in the denoised image. Our DMID strategy achieves state-of-the-art performance on both distortion-based and perception-based metrics, for both Gaussian and real-world image denoising.The code is available at https://github.com/Li-Tong-621/DMID.

Ensembling multiple models has always been an effective approach to push the limits of existing performance and is widely used in classification tasks by simply averaging the classification probability vectors from multiple classifiers to achieve better accuracy. However, in the thriving open-source Large Language Model (LLM) community, ensembling methods are rare and typically limited to ensembling the full-text outputs of LLMs, such as selecting the best output using a ranker, which leads to underutilization of token-level probability information. In this paper, we treat the Generation of each token by LLMs as a Classification (GaC) for ensembling. This approach fully exploits the probability information at each generation step and better prevents LLMs from producing early incorrect tokens that lead to snowballing errors. In experiments, we ensemble state-of-the-art LLMs on several benchmarks, including exams, mathematics and reasoning, and observe that our method breaks the existing community performance ceiling. Furthermore, we observed that most of the tokens in the answer are simple and do not affect the correctness of the final answer. Therefore, we also experimented with ensembling only key tokens, and the results showed better performance with lower latency across benchmarks.

In Multi-Task Learning (MTL), tasks may compete and limit the performance achieved on each other, rather than guiding the optimization to a solution, superior to all its single-task trained counterparts. Since there is often not a unique solution optimal for all tasks, practitioners have to balance tradeoffs between tasks' performance, and resort to optimality in the Pareto sense. Most MTL methodologies either completely neglect this aspect, and instead of aiming at learning a Pareto Front, produce one solution predefined by their optimization schemes, or produce diverse but discrete solutions. Recent approaches parameterize the Pareto Front via neural networks, leading to complex mappings from tradeoff to objective space. In this paper, we conjecture that the Pareto Front admits a linear parameterization in parameter space, which leads us to propose Pareto Manifold Learning, an ensembling method in weight space. Our approach produces a continuous Pareto Front in a single training run, that allows to modulate the performance on each task during inference. Experiments on multi-task learning benchmarks, ranging from image classification to tabular datasets and scene understanding, show that Pareto Manifold Learning outperforms state-of-the-art single-point algorithms, while learning a better Pareto parameterization than multi-point baselines.

Self-ensembling techniques with diverse reasoning paths such as Self-Consistency have demonstrated remarkable performance gains in text generation with Large Language Models (LLMs). However, such techniques depend on the availability of an accurate answer extraction process to aggregate across multiple outputs. Moreover, they acquire higher inference cost, in comparison to Greedy Decoding, due to generation of relatively higher number of output tokens. Research has shown that the free form text outputs from Self-Consistency can be aggregated reliably using LLMs to produce the final output. Additionally, recent advancements in LLM inference have demonstrated that usage of diverse exemplars in prompts have the ability to induce diversity in the LLM outputs. Such proven techniques can be easily extended to self-ensembling based approaches to achieve enhanced results in text generation. In this paper, we introduce PEDAL (Prompts based on Exemplar Diversity Aggregated using LLMs), a hybrid self-ensembling approach, that combines the strengths of diverse exemplar based prompts and LLM based aggregation to achieve improvement in overall performance. On the publicly available SVAMP and ARC datasets, our experiments reveal that PEDAL can achieve better accuracy than Greedy Decoding based strategies with lower inference cost compared to Self Consistency based approaches.

Agents based on large language models (LLMs) for machine learning engineering (MLE) can automatically implement ML models via code generation. However, existing approaches to build such agents often rely heavily on inherent LLM knowledge and employ coarse exploration strategies that modify the entire code structure at once. This limits their ability to select effective task-specific models and perform deep exploration within specific components, such as experimenting extensively with feature engineering options. To overcome these, we propose MLE-STAR, a novel approach to build MLE agents. MLE-STAR first leverages external knowledge by using a search engine to retrieve effective models from the web, forming an initial solution, then iteratively refines it by exploring various strategies targeting specific ML components. This exploration is guided by ablation studies analyzing the impact of individual code blocks. Furthermore, we introduce a novel ensembling method using an effective strategy suggested by MLE-STAR. Our experimental results show that MLE-STAR achieves medals in 64% of the Kaggle competitions on the MLE-bench Lite, significantly outperforming the best alternative.

Worldwide geolocalization aims to locate the precise location at the coordinate level of photos taken anywhere on the Earth. It is very challenging due to 1) the difficulty of capturing subtle location-aware visual semantics, and 2) the heterogeneous geographical distribution of image data. As a result, existing studies have clear limitations when scaled to a worldwide context. They may easily confuse distant images with similar visual contents, or cannot adapt to various locations worldwide with different amounts of relevant data. To resolve these limitations, we propose G3, a novel framework based on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). In particular, G3 consists of three steps, i.e., Geo-alignment, Geo-diversification, and Geo-verification to optimize both retrieval and generation phases of worldwide geolocalization. During Geo-alignment, our solution jointly learns expressive multi-modal representations for images, GPS and textual descriptions, which allows us to capture location-aware semantics for retrieving nearby images for a given query. During Geo-diversification, we leverage a prompt ensembling method that is robust to inconsistent retrieval performance for different image queries. Finally, we combine both retrieved and generated GPS candidates in Geo-verification for location prediction. Experiments on two well-established datasets IM2GPS3k and YFCC4k verify the superiority of G3 compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

Recently, the relationship between automated and human evaluation of topic models has been called into question. Method developers have staked the efficacy of new topic model variants on automated measures, and their failure to approximate human preferences places these models on uncertain ground. Moreover, existing evaluation paradigms are often divorced from real-world use. Motivated by content analysis as a dominant real-world use case for topic modeling, we analyze two related aspects of topic models that affect their effectiveness and trustworthiness in practice for that purpose: the stability of their estimates and the extent to which the model's discovered categories align with human-determined categories in the data. We find that neural topic models fare worse in both respects compared to an established classical method. We take a step toward addressing both issues in tandem by demonstrating that a straightforward ensembling method can reliably outperform the members of the ensemble.

Neural networks are very effective when trained on large datasets for a large number of iterations. However, when they are trained on non-stationary streams of data and in an online fashion, their performance is reduced (1) by the online setup, which limits the availability of data, (2) due to catastrophic forgetting because of the non-stationary nature of the data. Furthermore, several recent works (Caccia et al., 2022; Lange et al., 2023) arXiv:2205.13452 showed that replay methods used in continual learning suffer from the stability gap, encountered when evaluating the model continually (rather than only on task boundaries). In this article, we study the effect of model ensembling as a way to improve performance and stability in online continual learning. We notice that naively ensembling models coming from a variety of training tasks increases the performance in online continual learning considerably. Starting from this observation, and drawing inspirations from semi-supervised learning ensembling methods, we use a lightweight temporal ensemble that computes the exponential moving average of the weights (EMA) at test time, and show that it can drastically increase the performance and stability when used in combination with several methods from the literature.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) for mathematical reasoning have largely focused on tasks with easily verifiable final answers; however, generating and verifying natural language math proofs remains an open challenge. We identify the absence of a reliable, fine-grained evaluator for LLM-generated math proofs as a critical gap. To address this, we propose a systematic methodology for developing and validating evaluators that assign fine-grained scores on a 0-7 scale to model-generated math proofs. To enable this study, we introduce ProofBench, the first expert-annotated dataset of fine-grained proof ratings, spanning 145 problems from six major math competitions (USAMO, IMO, Putnam, etc) and 435 LLM-generated solutions from Gemini-2.5-pro, o3, and DeepSeek-R1. %with expert gradings. Using ProofBench as a testbed, we systematically explore the evaluator design space across key axes: the backbone model, input context, instructions and evaluation workflow. Our analysis delivers ProofGrader, an evaluator that combines a strong reasoning backbone LM, rich context from reference solutions and marking schemes, and a simple ensembling method; it achieves a low Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.926 against expert scores, significantly outperforming naive baselines. Finally, we demonstrate its practical utility in a best-of-n selection task: at n=16, ProofGrader achieves an average score of 4.14 (out of 7), closing 78% of the gap between a naive binary evaluator (2.48) and the human oracle (4.62), highlighting its potential to advance downstream proof generation.

Multi-Agent Debate~(MAD) has emerged as a promising paradigm for improving the performance of large language models through collaborative reasoning. Despite recent advances, the key factors driving MAD's effectiveness remain unclear. In this work, we disentangle MAD into two key components--Majority Voting and inter-agent Debate--and assess their respective contributions. Through extensive experiments across seven NLP benchmarks, we find that Majority Voting alone accounts for most of the performance gains typically attributed to MAD. To explain this, we propose a theoretical framework that models debate as a stochastic process. We prove that it induces a martingale over agents' belief trajectories, implying that debate alone does not improve expected correctness. Guided by these insights, we demonstrate that targeted interventions, by biasing the belief update toward correction, can meaningfully enhance debate effectiveness. Overall, our findings suggest that while MAD has potential, simple ensembling methods remain strong and more reliable alternatives in many practical settings. Code is released in https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/debate-or-vote.

It has long been assumed that the sheer number of parameters in large language models (LLMs) drives in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, enabling remarkable performance improvements by leveraging task-specific demonstrations. Challenging this hypothesis, we introduce DEEP-ICL, a novel task Definition Enriched ExPert Ensembling methodology for ICL. DEEP-ICL explicitly extracts task definitions from given demonstrations and generates responses through learning task-specific examples. We argue that improvement from ICL does not directly rely on model size, but essentially stems from understanding task definitions and task-guided learning. Inspired by this, DEEP-ICL combines two 3B models with distinct roles (one for concluding task definitions and the other for learning task demonstrations) and achieves comparable performance to LLaMA2-13B. Furthermore, our framework outperforms conventional ICL by overcoming pretraining sequence length limitations, by supporting unlimited demonstrations. We contend that DEEP-ICL presents a novel alternative for achieving efficient few-shot learning, extending beyond the conventional ICL.

Randomized ensemble classifiers (RECs), where one classifier is randomly selected during inference, have emerged as an attractive alternative to traditional ensembling methods for realizing adversarially robust classifiers with limited compute requirements. However, recent works have shown that existing methods for constructing RECs are more vulnerable than initially claimed, casting major doubts on their efficacy and prompting fundamental questions such as: "When are RECs useful?", "What are their limits?", and "How do we train them?". In this work, we first demystify RECs as we derive fundamental results regarding their theoretical limits, necessary and sufficient conditions for them to be useful, and more. Leveraging this new understanding, we propose a new boosting algorithm (BARRE) for training robust RECs, and empirically demonstrate its effectiveness at defending against strong ell_infty norm-bounded adversaries across various network architectures and datasets. Our code can be found at https://github.com/hsndbk4/BARRE.

Language models have shown impressive performance on tasks within their training distribution, but often struggle with novel problems requiring complex reasoning. We investigate the effectiveness of test-time training (TTT) -- updating model parameters temporarily during inference using a loss derived from input data -- as a mechanism for improving models' reasoning capabilities, using the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) as a benchmark. Through systematic experimentation, we identify three crucial components for successful TTT: (1) initial finetuning on similar tasks (2) auxiliary task format and augmentations (3) per-instance training. TTT significantly improves performance on ARC tasks, achieving up to 6x improvement in accuracy compared to base fine-tuned models; applying TTT to an 8B-parameter language model, we achieve 53% accuracy on the ARC's public validation set, improving the state-of-the-art by nearly 25% for public and purely neural approaches. By ensembling our method with recent program generation approaches, we get SoTA public validation accuracy of 61.9%, matching the average human score. Our findings suggest that explicit symbolic search is not the only path to improved abstract reasoning in neural language models; additional test-time applied to continued training on few-shot examples can also be extremely effective.

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty.

This paper studies ensembling in the era of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). Ensembling is a classical method to combine different models to get increased performance. In the recent work on Encyclopedic-VQA the authors examine a wide variety of models to solve their task: from vanilla LVLMs, to models including the caption as extra context, to models augmented with Lens-based retrieval of Wikipedia pages. Intuitively these models are highly complementary, which should make them ideal for ensembling. Indeed, an oracle experiment shows potential gains from 48.8% accuracy (the best single model) all the way up to 67% (best possible ensemble). So it is a trivial exercise to create an ensemble with substantial real gains. Or is it?

With the growing popularity of deep learning and foundation models for tabular data, the need for standardized and reliable benchmarks is higher than ever. However, current benchmarks are static. Their design is not updated even if flaws are discovered, model versions are updated, or new models are released. To address this, we introduce TabArena, the first continuously maintained living tabular benchmarking system. To launch TabArena, we manually curate a representative collection of datasets and well-implemented models, conduct a large-scale benchmarking study to initialize a public leaderboard, and assemble a team of experienced maintainers. Our results highlight the influence of validation method and ensembling of hyperparameter configurations to benchmark models at their full potential. While gradient-boosted trees are still strong contenders on practical tabular datasets, we observe that deep learning methods have caught up under larger time budgets with ensembling. At the same time, foundation models excel on smaller datasets. Finally, we show that ensembles across models advance the state-of-the-art in tabular machine learning and investigate the contributions of individual models. We launch TabArena with a public leaderboard, reproducible code, and maintenance protocols to create a living benchmark available at https://tabarena.ai.

Supervised learning for empathy regression is challenged by noisy self-reported empathy scores. While many algorithms have been proposed for learning with noisy labels in textual classification problems, the regression counterpart is relatively under-explored. We propose UPLME, an uncertainty-aware probabilistic language modelling framework to capture label noise in the regression setting of empathy detection. UPLME includes a probabilistic language model that predicts both empathy score and heteroscedastic uncertainty and is trained using Bayesian concepts with variational model ensembling. We further introduce two novel loss components: one penalises degenerate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and another enforces the similarity between the input pairs on which we predict empathy. UPLME provides state-of-the-art performance (Pearson Correlation Coefficient: 0.558rightarrow0.580 and 0.629rightarrow0.634) in terms of the performance reported in the literature in two public benchmarks, having label noise. Through synthetic label noise injection, we show that UPLME is effective in separating noisy and clean samples based on the predicted uncertainty. UPLME further outperform (Calibration error: 0.571rightarrow0.376) a recent variational model ensembling-based UQ method designed for regression problems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are highly vulnerable to input perturbations, as even a small prompt change may result in a substantially different output. Existing methods to enhance LLM robustness are primarily focused on perturbed data samples, whereas improving resiliency to perturbations of task-level instructions has remained relatively underexplored. In this work, we focus on character- and word-level edits of task-specific instructions, which substantially degrade downstream performance. We experiment with a variety of techniques to enhance the robustness of LLMs, including self-denoising and representation alignment, testing different models (Llama 3 and Flan-T5), datasets (CoLA, QNLI, SST-2) and instructions (both task-oriented and role-oriented). We find that, on average, self-denoising -- whether performed by a frozen LLM or a fine-tuned model -- achieves substantially higher performance gains than alternative strategies, including more complex baselines such as ensembling and supervised methods.

In this paper, we carry out experimental research on Grammatical Error Correction, delving into the nuances of single-model systems, comparing the efficiency of ensembling and ranking methods, and exploring the application of large language models to GEC as single-model systems, as parts of ensembles, and as ranking methods. We set new state-of-the-art performance with F_0.5 scores of 72.8 on CoNLL-2014-test and 81.4 on BEA-test, respectively. To support further advancements in GEC and ensure the reproducibility of our research, we make our code, trained models, and systems' outputs publicly available.

Despite recent advances in large language models, open-source models often struggle to consistently perform well on complex reasoning tasks. Existing ensemble methods, whether applied at the token or output levels, fail to address these challenges. In response, we present Language model Ensemble with Monte Carlo Tree Search (LE-MCTS), a novel framework for process-level ensembling of language models. LE-MCTS formulates step-by-step reasoning with an ensemble of language models as a Markov decision process. In this framework, states represent intermediate reasoning paths, while actions consist of generating the next reasoning step using one of the language models selected from a predefined pool. Guided by a process-based reward model, LE-MCTS performs a tree search over the reasoning steps generated by different language models, identifying the most accurate reasoning chain. Experimental results on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach outperforms both single language model decoding algorithms and language model ensemble methods. Notably, LE-MCTS improves performance by 3.6% and 4.3% on the MATH and MQA datasets, respectively, highlighting its effectiveness in solving complex reasoning problems.

Ensembling neural machine translation (NMT) models to produce higher-quality translations than the L individual models has been extensively studied. Recent methods typically employ a candidate selection block (CSB) and an encoder-decoder fusion block (FB), requiring inference across all candidate models, leading to significant computational overhead, generally Omega(L). This paper introduces SmartGen, a reinforcement learning (RL)-based strategy that improves the CSB by selecting a small, fixed number of candidates and identifying optimal groups to pass to the fusion block for each input sentence. Furthermore, previously, the CSB and FB were trained independently, leading to suboptimal NMT performance. Our DQN-based SmartGen addresses this by using feedback from the FB block as a reward during training. We also resolve a key issue in earlier methods, where candidates were passed to the FB without modification, by introducing a Competitive Correction Block (CCB). Finally, we validate our approach with extensive experiments on English-Hindi translation tasks in both directions.

Error detection (ED), which aims to identify incorrect or inconsistent cell values in tabular data, is important for ensuring data quality. Recent state-of-the-art ED methods leverage the pre-trained knowledge and semantic capability embedded in large language models (LLMs) to directly label whether a cell is erroneous. However, this LLM-as-a-labeler pipeline (1) relies on the black box, implicit decision process, thus failing to provide explainability for the detection results, and (2) is highly sensitive to prompts, yielding inconsistent outputs due to inherent model stochasticity, therefore lacking robustness. To address these limitations, we propose an LLM-as-an-inducer framework that adopts LLM to induce the decision tree for ED (termed TreeED) and further ensembles multiple such trees for consensus detection (termed ForestED), thereby improving explainability and robustness. Specifically, based on prompts derived from data context, decision tree specifications and output requirements, TreeED queries the LLM to induce the decision tree skeleton, whose root-to-leaf decision paths specify the stepwise procedure for evaluating a given sample. Each tree contains three types of nodes: (1) rule nodes that perform simple validation checks (e.g., format or range), (2) Graph Neural Network (GNN) nodes that capture complex patterns (e.g., functional dependencies), and (3) leaf nodes that output the final decision types (error or clean). Furthermore, ForestED employs uncertainty-based sampling to obtain multiple row subsets, constructing a decision tree for each subset using TreeED. It then leverages an Expectation-Maximization-based algorithm that jointly estimates tree reliability and optimizes the consensus ED prediction. Extensive xperiments demonstrate that our methods are accurate, explainable and robust, achieving an average F1-score improvement of 16.1% over the best baseline.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) based Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) has recently gained attention due to its efficiency and scalability. Several MARL-MAPF methods choose to use communication to enrich the information one agent can perceive. However, existing works still struggle in structured environments with high obstacle density and a high number of agents. To further improve the performance of the communication-based MARL-MAPF solvers, we propose a new method, Ensembling Prioritized Hybrid Policies (EPH). We first propose a selective communication block to gather richer information for better agent coordination within multi-agent environments and train the model with a Q learning-based algorithm. We further introduce three advanced inference strategies aimed at bolstering performance during the execution phase. First, we hybridize the neural policy with single-agent expert guidance for navigating conflict-free zones. Secondly, we propose Q value-based methods for prioritized resolution of conflicts as well as deadlock situations. Finally, we introduce a robust ensemble method that can efficiently collect the best out of multiple possible solutions. We empirically evaluate EPH in complex multi-agent environments and demonstrate competitive performance against state-of-the-art neural methods for MAPF. We open-source our code at https://github.com/ai4co/eph-mapf.

Merging various task-specific Transformer-based models trained on different tasks into a single unified model can execute all the tasks concurrently. Previous methods, exemplified by task arithmetic, have been proven to be both effective and scalable. Existing methods have primarily focused on seeking a static optimal solution within the original model parameter space. A notable challenge is mitigating the interference between parameters of different models, which can substantially deteriorate performance. In this paper, we propose to merge most of the parameters while upscaling the MLP of the Transformer layers to a weight-ensembling mixture of experts (MoE) module, which can dynamically integrate shared and task-specific knowledge based on the input, thereby providing a more flexible solution that can adapt to the specific needs of each instance. Our key insight is that by identifying and separating shared knowledge and task-specific knowledge, and then dynamically integrating them, we can mitigate the parameter interference problem to a great extent. We conduct the conventional multi-task model merging experiments and evaluate the generalization and robustness of our method. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and provide a comprehensive understanding of our method. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/weight-ensembling_MoE-67C9/

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50% compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet.

We propose an empirical measure of the approximate accuracy of feature importance estimates in deep neural networks. Our results across several large-scale image classification datasets show that many popular interpretability methods produce estimates of feature importance that are not better than a random designation of feature importance. Only certain ensemble based approaches---VarGrad and SmoothGrad-Squared---outperform such a random assignment of importance. The manner of ensembling remains critical, we show that some approaches do no better then the underlying method but carry a far higher computational burden.

We present LLM-Blender, an ensembling framework designed to attain consistently superior performance by leveraging the diverse strengths of multiple open-source large language models (LLMs). Our framework consists of two modules: PairRanker and GenFuser, addressing the observation that optimal LLMs for different examples can significantly vary. PairRanker employs a specialized pairwise comparison method to distinguish subtle differences between candidate outputs. It jointly encodes the input text and a pair of candidates, using cross-attention encoders to determine the superior one. Our results demonstrate that PairRanker exhibits the highest correlation with ChatGPT-based ranking. Then, GenFuser aims to merge the top-ranked candidates, generating an improved output by capitalizing on their strengths and mitigating their weaknesses. To facilitate large-scale evaluation, we introduce a benchmark dataset, MixInstruct, which is a mixture of multiple instruction datasets featuring oracle pairwise comparisons. Our LLM-Blender significantly outperform individual LLMs and baseline methods across various metrics, establishing a substantial performance gap.

Video Detailed Captioning (VDC) is a crucial task for vision-language bridging, enabling fine-grained descriptions of complex video content. In this paper, we first comprehensively benchmark current state-of-the-art approaches and systematically identified two critical limitations: biased capability towards specific captioning aspect and misalignment with human preferences. To address these deficiencies, we propose Cockatiel, a novel three-stage training pipeline that ensembles synthetic and human-aligned training for improving VDC performance. In the first stage, we derive a scorer from a meticulously annotated dataset to select synthetic captions high-performing on certain fine-grained video-caption alignment and human-preferred while disregarding others. Then, we train Cockatiel-13B, using this curated dataset to infuse it with assembled model strengths and human preferences. Finally, we further distill Cockatiel-8B from Cockatiel-13B for the ease of usage. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments reflect the effectiveness of our method, as we not only set new state-of-the-art performance on VDCSCORE in a dimension-balanced way but also surpass leading alternatives on human preference by a large margin as depicted by the human evaluation results.

Recent advances in diffusion models have enabled the creation of deceptively real images, posing significant security risks when misused. In this study, we empirically show that different timesteps of DDIM inversion reveal varying subtle distinctions between synthetic and real images that are extractable for detection, in the forms of such as Fourier power spectrum high-frequency discrepancies and inter-pixel variance distributions. Based on these observations, we propose a novel synthetic image detection method that directly utilizes features of intermediately noised images by training an ensemble on multiple noised timesteps, circumventing conventional reconstruction-based strategies. To enhance human comprehension, we introduce a metric-grounded explanation generation and refinement module to identify and explain AI-generated flaws. Additionally, we construct the GenHard and GenExplain benchmarks to provide detection samples of greater difficulty and high-quality rationales for fake images. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with 98.91% and 95.89% detection accuracy on regular and challenging samples respectively, and demonstrates generalizability and robustness. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Shadowlized/ESIDE.

Tangent Model Composition (TMC) is a method to combine component models independently fine-tuned around a pre-trained point. Component models are tangent vectors to the pre-trained model that can be added, scaled, or subtracted to support incremental learning, ensembling, or unlearning. Component models are composed at inference time via scalar combination, reducing the cost of ensembling to that of a single model. TMC improves accuracy by 4.2% compared to ensembling non-linearly fine-tuned models at a 2.5x to 10x reduction of inference cost, growing linearly with the number of component models. Each component model can be forgotten at zero cost, with no residual effect on the resulting inference. When used for continual fine-tuning, TMC is not constrained by sequential bias and can be executed in parallel on federated data. TMC outperforms recently published continual fine-tuning methods almost uniformly on each setting -- task-incremental, class-incremental, and data-incremental -- on a total of 13 experiments across 3 benchmark datasets, despite not using any replay buffer. TMC is designed for composing models that are local to a pre-trained embedding, but could be extended to more general settings.

Contrastively trained text-image models have the remarkable ability to perform zero-shot classification, that is, classifying previously unseen images into categories that the model has never been explicitly trained to identify. However, these zero-shot classifiers need prompt engineering to achieve high accuracy. Prompt engineering typically requires hand-crafting a set of prompts for individual downstream tasks. In this work, we aim to automate this prompt engineering and improve zero-shot accuracy through prompt ensembling. In particular, we ask "Given a large pool of prompts, can we automatically score the prompts and ensemble those that are most suitable for a particular downstream dataset, without needing access to labeled validation data?". We demonstrate that this is possible. In doing so, we identify several pathologies in a naive prompt scoring method where the score can be easily overconfident due to biases in pre-training and test data, and we propose a novel prompt scoring method that corrects for the biases. Using our proposed scoring method to create a weighted average prompt ensemble, our method outperforms equal average ensemble, as well as hand-crafted prompts, on ImageNet, 4 of its variants, and 11 fine-grained classification benchmarks, all while being fully automatic, optimization-free, and not requiring access to labeled validation data.

Despite being the seventh most widely spoken language in the world, Bengali has received much less attention in machine translation literature due to being low in resources. Most publicly available parallel corpora for Bengali are not large enough; and have rather poor quality, mostly because of incorrect sentence alignments resulting from erroneous sentence segmentation, and also because of a high volume of noise present in them. In this work, we build a customized sentence segmenter for Bengali and propose two novel methods for parallel corpus creation on low-resource setups: aligner ensembling and batch filtering. With the segmenter and the two methods combined, we compile a high-quality Bengali-English parallel corpus comprising of 2.75 million sentence pairs, more than 2 million of which were not available before. Training on neural models, we achieve an improvement of more than 9 BLEU score over previous approaches to Bengali-English machine translation. We also evaluate on a new test set of 1000 pairs made with extensive quality control. We release the segmenter, parallel corpus, and the evaluation set, thus elevating Bengali from its low-resource status. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ever large scale study on Bengali-English machine translation. We believe our study will pave the way for future research on Bengali-English machine translation as well as other low-resource languages. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/csebuetnlp/banglanmt.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

Multi-modal large language models have seen rapid advancement alongside large language models. However, while language models can effectively leverage chain-of-thought prompting for zero or few-shot learning, similar prompting strategies are less effective for multi-modal LLMs due to modality gaps and task complexity. To address this challenge, we explore two prompting approaches: a dual-query method that separates multi-modal input analysis and answer generation into two prompting steps, and an ensemble prompting method that combines multiple prompt variations to arrive at the final answer. Although these approaches enhance the model's reasoning capabilities without fine-tuning, they introduce significant inference overhead. Therefore, building on top of these two prompting techniques, we propose a self-distillation framework such that the model can improve itself without any annotated data. Our self-distillation framework learns representation intervention modules from the reasoning traces collected from ensembled dual-query prompts, in the form of hidden representations. The lightweight intervention modules operate in parallel with the frozen original model, which makes it possible to maintain computational efficiency while significantly improving model capability. We evaluate our method on five widely-used VQA benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in performing multi-hop reasoning for complex tasks.

Hallucination is a known issue for neural abstractive summarization models. Recent work suggests that the degree of hallucination may depend on errors in the training data. In this work, we propose a new method called Contrastive Parameter Ensembling (CaPE) to use training data more effectively, utilizing variations in noise in training samples to reduce hallucination. We first select clean and noisy subsets from the training data using different automatic factual metrics. Then, we fine-tune a base summarization model, which is trained on all training samples, on the clean (noisy) subset to obtain an expert (anti-expert) model. Finally, we adjust the parameters of base model by the difference between parameters of the expert and anti-expert models, steering the base model towards the expert model and away from the anti-expert model. Experimental results show that CaPE improves performance across different automatic factual metrics and human evaluation, with the maximum improvement of 16.69\% and 15.78\% on summary-level dependency-arc entailment accuracy for the XSUM and CNN/DM datasets. The improvement in factual performance does not degrade the performance on other metrics of informativeness such as ROUGE.

Accurate depth estimation under out-of-distribution (OoD) scenarios, such as adverse weather conditions, sensor failure, and noise contamination, is desirable for safety-critical applications. Existing depth estimation systems, however, suffer inevitably from real-world corruptions and perturbations and are struggled to provide reliable depth predictions under such cases. In this paper, we summarize the winning solutions from the RoboDepth Challenge -- an academic competition designed to facilitate and advance robust OoD depth estimation. This challenge was developed based on the newly established KITTI-C and NYUDepth2-C benchmarks. We hosted two stand-alone tracks, with an emphasis on robust self-supervised and robust fully-supervised depth estimation, respectively. Out of more than two hundred participants, nine unique and top-performing solutions have appeared, with novel designs ranging from the following aspects: spatial- and frequency-domain augmentations, masked image modeling, image restoration and super-resolution, adversarial training, diffusion-based noise suppression, vision-language pre-training, learned model ensembling, and hierarchical feature enhancement. Extensive experimental analyses along with insightful observations are drawn to better understand the rationale behind each design. We hope this challenge could lay a solid foundation for future research on robust and reliable depth estimation and beyond. The datasets, competition toolkit, workshop recordings, and source code from the winning teams are publicly available on the challenge website.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in novel view synthesis (NVS). However, 3DGS tends to overfit when trained with sparse views, limiting its generalization to novel viewpoints. In this paper, we address this overfitting issue by introducing Self-Ensembling Gaussian Splatting (SE-GS). We achieve self-ensembling by incorporating an uncertainty-aware perturbation strategy during training. A Delta-model and a Sigma-model are jointly trained on the available images. The Delta-model is dynamically perturbed based on rendering uncertainty across training steps, generating diverse perturbed models with negligible computational overhead. Discrepancies between the Sigma-model and these perturbed models are minimized throughout training, forming a robust ensemble of 3DGS models. This ensemble, represented by the Sigma-model, is then used to generate novel-view images during inference. Experimental results on the LLFF, Mip-NeRF360, DTU, and MVImgNet datasets demonstrate that our approach enhances NVS quality under few-shot training conditions, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods. The code is released at: https://sailor-z.github.io/projects/SEGS.html.

Ensembling Large Language Models (LLMs) has gained attention as a promising approach to surpass the performance of individual models by leveraging their complementary strengths. In particular, aggregating models' next-token probability distributions to select the next token has been shown to be effective in various tasks. However, while successful for short-form answers, its application to long-form generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we show that using existing ensemble methods in long-form generation requires a careful choice of ensembling positions, since the standard practice of ensembling at every token often degrades performance. We identify two key factors for determining these positions: tokenization mismatch across models and consensus in their next-token probability distributions. Based on this, we propose SAFE, (Stable And Fast LLM Ensembling), a framework that selectively ensembles by jointly considering these factors. To further improve stability, we introduce a probability sharpening strategy that consolidates probabilities spread across multiple sub-word tokens representing the same word into a single representative token. Our experiments on diverse benchmarks, including MATH500 and BBH, demonstrate that SAFE outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and efficiency, with gains achieved even when ensembling fewer than 1% of tokens.

Deep learning architectures for supervised learning on tabular data range from simple multilayer perceptrons (MLP) to sophisticated Transformers and retrieval-augmented methods. This study highlights a major, yet so far overlooked opportunity for designing substantially better MLP-based tabular architectures. Namely, our new model TabM relies on efficient ensembling, where one TabM efficiently imitates an ensemble of MLPs and produces multiple predictions per object. Compared to a traditional deep ensemble, in TabM, the underlying implicit MLPs are trained simultaneously, and (by default) share most of their parameters, which results in significantly better performance and efficiency. Using TabM as a new baseline, we perform a large-scale evaluation of tabular DL architectures on public benchmarks in terms of both task performance and efficiency, which renders the landscape of tabular DL in a new light. Generally, we show that MLPs, including TabM, form a line of stronger and more practical models compared to attention- and retrieval-based architectures. In particular, we find that TabM demonstrates the best performance among tabular DL models. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis on the ensemble-like nature of TabM. We observe that the multiple predictions of TabM are weak individually, but powerful collectively. Overall, our work brings an impactful technique to tabular DL and advances the performance-efficiency trade-off with TabM -- a simple and powerful baseline for researchers and practitioners.

Glaucoma is one of the leading causes of irreversible but preventable blindness in working age populations. Color fundus photography (CFP) is the most cost-effective imaging modality to screen for retinal disorders. However, its application to glaucoma has been limited to the computation of a few related biomarkers such as the vertical cup-to-disc ratio. Deep learning approaches, although widely applied for medical image analysis, have not been extensively used for glaucoma assessment due to the limited size of the available data sets. Furthermore, the lack of a standardize benchmark strategy makes difficult to compare existing methods in a uniform way. In order to overcome these issues we set up the Retinal Fundus Glaucoma Challenge, REFUGE (https://refuge.grand-challenge.org), held in conjunction with MICCAI 2018. The challenge consisted of two primary tasks, namely optic disc/cup segmentation and glaucoma classification. As part of REFUGE, we have publicly released a data set of 1200 fundus images with ground truth segmentations and clinical glaucoma labels, currently the largest existing one. We have also built an evaluation framework to ease and ensure fairness in the comparison of different models, encouraging the development of novel techniques in the field. 12 teams qualified and participated in the online challenge. This paper summarizes their methods and analyzes their corresponding results. In particular, we observed that two of the top-ranked teams outperformed two human experts in the glaucoma classification task. Furthermore, the segmentation results were in general consistent with the ground truth annotations, with complementary outcomes that can be further exploited by ensembling the results.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

This study presents a computer vision approach aimed at detecting snow on sidewalks and pavements to reduce winter-related fall injuries, especially among elderly and visually impaired individuals. Leveraging fine-tuned VGG-19 and ResNet50 convolutional neural networks (CNNs), the research focuses on identifying snow presence in pavement images. The dataset comprises 98 images evenly split between snowy and snow-free conditions, evaluated with a separate test set using the F1 score and accuracy metrics. This work builds upon existing research by employing fine-tuned CNN architectures to accurately detect snow on pavements from smartphone-captured images. The methodology incorporates transfer learning and model ensembling techniques to integrate the best predictions from both the VGG19 and ResNet50 architectures. The study yields accuracy and F1 scores of 81.8% and 81.7%, respectively, showcasing the potential of computer vision in addressing winter-related hazards for vulnerable populations.

In this technical report, we present our findings from the research conducted on the Human-Object Interaction 4D (HOI4D) dataset for egocentric action segmentation task. As a relatively novel research area, point cloud video methods might not be good at temporal modeling, especially for long point cloud videos (\eg, 150 frames). In contrast, traditional video understanding methods have been well developed. Their effectiveness on temporal modeling has been widely verified on many large scale video datasets. Therefore, we convert point cloud videos into depth videos and employ traditional video modeling methods to improve 4D action segmentation. By ensembling depth and point cloud video methods, the accuracy is significantly improved. The proposed method, named Mixture of Depth and Point cloud video experts (DPMix), achieved the first place in the 4D Action Segmentation Track of the HOI4D Challenge 2023.

Identifying key pathological features in brain MRIs is crucial for the long-term survival of glioma patients. However, manual segmentation is time-consuming, requiring expert intervention and is susceptible to human error. Therefore, significant research has been devoted to developing machine learning methods that can accurately segment tumors in 3D multimodal brain MRI scans. Despite their progress, state-of-the-art models are often limited by the data they are trained on, raising concerns about their reliability when applied to diverse populations that may introduce distribution shifts. Such shifts can stem from lower quality MRI technology (e.g., in sub-Saharan Africa) or variations in patient demographics (e.g., children). The BraTS-2024 challenge provides a platform to address these issues. This study presents our methodology for segmenting tumors in the BraTS-2024 SSA and Pediatric Tumors tasks using MedNeXt, comprehensive model ensembling, and thorough postprocessing. Our approach demonstrated strong performance on the unseen validation set, achieving an average Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) of 0.896 on the BraTS-2024 SSA dataset and an average DSC of 0.830 on the BraTS Pediatric Tumor dataset. Additionally, our method achieved an average Hausdorff Distance (HD95) of 14.682 on the BraTS-2024 SSA dataset and an average HD95 of 37.508 on the BraTS Pediatric dataset. Our GitHub repository can be accessed here: Project Repository : https://github.com/python-arch/BioMbz-Optimizing-Brain-Tumor-Segmentation-with-MedNeXt-BraTS-2024-SSA-and-Pediatrics

We present a method for making neural network predictions robust to shifts from the training data distribution. The proposed method is based on making predictions via a diverse set of cues (called 'middle domains') and ensembling them into one strong prediction. The premise of the idea is that predictions made via different cues respond differently to a distribution shift, hence one should be able to merge them into one robust final prediction. We perform the merging in a straightforward but principled manner based on the uncertainty associated with each prediction. The evaluations are performed using multiple tasks and datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ImageNet, CIFAR) under a wide range of adversarial and non-adversarial distribution shifts which demonstrate the proposed method is considerably more robust than its standard learning counterpart, conventional deep ensembles, and several other baselines.

Adversarial examples pose a significant challenge to the robustness, reliability and alignment of deep neural networks. We propose a novel, easy-to-use approach to achieving high-quality representations that lead to adversarial robustness through the use of multi-resolution input representations and dynamic self-ensembling of intermediate layer predictions. We demonstrate that intermediate layer predictions exhibit inherent robustness to adversarial attacks crafted to fool the full classifier, and propose a robust aggregation mechanism based on Vickrey auction that we call CrossMax to dynamically ensemble them. By combining multi-resolution inputs and robust ensembling, we achieve significant adversarial robustness on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets without any adversarial training or extra data, reaching an adversarial accuracy of approx72% (CIFAR-10) and approx48% (CIFAR-100) on the RobustBench AutoAttack suite (L_infty=8/255) with a finetuned ImageNet-pretrained ResNet152. This represents a result comparable with the top three models on CIFAR-10 and a +5 % gain compared to the best current dedicated approach on CIFAR-100. Adding simple adversarial training on top, we get approx78% on CIFAR-10 and approx51% on CIFAR-100, improving SOTA by 5 % and 9 % respectively and seeing greater gains on the harder dataset. We validate our approach through extensive experiments and provide insights into the interplay between adversarial robustness, and the hierarchical nature of deep representations. We show that simple gradient-based attacks against our model lead to human-interpretable images of the target classes as well as interpretable image changes. As a byproduct, using our multi-resolution prior, we turn pre-trained classifiers and CLIP models into controllable image generators and develop successful transferable attacks on large vision language models.

Accurately describing images via text is a foundation of explainable AI. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) like CLIP have recently addressed this by aligning images and texts in a shared embedding space, expressing semantic similarities between vision and language embeddings. VLM classification can be improved with descriptions generated by Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it is difficult to determine the contribution of actual description semantics, as the performance gain may also stem from a semantic-agnostic ensembling effect. Considering this, we ask how to distinguish the actual discriminative power of descriptions from performance boosts that potentially rely on an ensembling effect. To study this, we propose an alternative evaluation scenario that shows a characteristic behavior if the used descriptions have discriminative power. Furthermore, we propose a training-free method to select discriminative descriptions that work independently of classname ensembling effects. The training-free method works in the following way: A test image has a local CLIP label neighborhood, i.e., its top-k label predictions. Then, w.r.t. to a small selection set, we extract descriptions that distinguish each class well in the local neighborhood. Using the selected descriptions, we demonstrate improved classification accuracy across seven datasets and provide in-depth analysis and insights into the explainability of description-based image classification by VLMs.

Recent domain generalization (DG) approaches typically use the hypothesis learned on source domains for inference on the unseen target domain. However, such a hypothesis can be arbitrarily far from the optimal one for the target domain, induced by a gap termed ``adaptivity gap''. Without exploiting the domain information from the unseen test samples, adaptivity gap estimation and minimization are intractable, which hinders us to robustify a model to any unknown distribution. In this paper, we first establish a generalization bound that explicitly considers the adaptivity gap. Our bound motivates two strategies to reduce the gap: the first one is ensembling multiple classifiers to enrich the hypothesis space, then we propose effective gap estimation methods for guiding the selection of a better hypothesis for the target. The other method is minimizing the gap directly by adapting model parameters using online target samples. We thus propose Domain-specific Risk Minimization (DRM). During training, DRM models the distributions of different source domains separately; for inference, DRM performs online model steering using the source hypothesis for each arriving target sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRM for domain generalization with the following advantages: 1) it significantly outperforms competitive baselines on different distributional shift settings; 2) it achieves either comparable or superior accuracies on all source domains compared to vanilla empirical risk minimization; 3) it remains simple and efficient during training, and 4) it is complementary to invariant learning approaches.

This work addresses the challenge of high-quality surface normal estimation from monocular colored inputs (i.e., images and videos), a field which has recently been revolutionized by repurposing diffusion priors. However, previous attempts still struggle with stochastic inference, conflicting with the deterministic nature of the Image2Normal task, and costly ensembling step, which slows down the estimation process. Our method, StableNormal, mitigates the stochasticity of the diffusion process by reducing inference variance, thus producing "Stable-and-Sharp" normal estimates without any additional ensembling process. StableNormal works robustly under challenging imaging conditions, such as extreme lighting, blurring, and low quality. It is also robust against transparent and reflective surfaces, as well as cluttered scenes with numerous objects. Specifically, StableNormal employs a coarse-to-fine strategy, which starts with a one-step normal estimator (YOSO) to derive an initial normal guess, that is relatively coarse but reliable, then followed by a semantic-guided refinement process (SG-DRN) that refines the normals to recover geometric details. The effectiveness of StableNormal is demonstrated through competitive performance in standard datasets such as DIODE-indoor, iBims, ScannetV2 and NYUv2, and also in various downstream tasks, such as surface reconstruction and normal enhancement. These results evidence that StableNormal retains both the "stability" and "sharpness" for accurate normal estimation. StableNormal represents a baby attempt to repurpose diffusion priors for deterministic estimation. To democratize this, code and models have been publicly available in hf.co/Stable-X

Prompt ensembling of Large Language Model (LLM) generated category-specific prompts has emerged as an effective method to enhance zero-shot recognition ability of Vision-Language Models (VLMs). To obtain these category-specific prompts, the present methods rely on hand-crafting the prompts to the LLMs for generating VLM prompts for the downstream tasks. However, this requires manually composing these task-specific prompts and still, they might not cover the diverse set of visual concepts and task-specific styles associated with the categories of interest. To effectively take humans out of the loop and completely automate the prompt generation process for zero-shot recognition, we propose Meta-Prompting for Visual Recognition (MPVR). Taking as input only minimal information about the target task, in the form of its short natural language description, and a list of associated class labels, MPVR automatically produces a diverse set of category-specific prompts resulting in a strong zero-shot classifier. MPVR generalizes effectively across various popular zero-shot image recognition benchmarks belonging to widely different domains when tested with multiple LLMs and VLMs. For example, MPVR obtains a zero-shot recognition improvement over CLIP by up to 19.8% and 18.2% (5.0% and 4.5% on average over 20 datasets) leveraging GPT and Mixtral LLMs, respectively

The overestimation bias is one of the major impediments to accurate off-policy learning. This paper investigates a novel way to alleviate the overestimation bias in a continuous control setting. Our method---Truncated Quantile Critics, TQC,---blends three ideas: distributional representation of a critic, truncation of critics prediction, and ensembling of multiple critics. Distributional representation and truncation allow for arbitrary granular overestimation control, while ensembling provides additional score improvements. TQC outperforms the current state of the art on all environments from the continuous control benchmark suite, demonstrating 25% improvement on the most challenging Humanoid environment.

Large language models (LLMs) are documented to struggle in settings that require complex reasoning. Nevertheless, instructing the model to break down the problem into smaller reasoning steps (Wei et al., 2022), or ensembling various generations through modifying decoding steps (Wang et al., 2023) boosts performance. Current methods assume that the input prompt is fixed and expect the decoding strategies to introduce the diversity needed for ensembling. In this work, we relax this assumption and discuss how one can create and leverage variations of the input prompt as a means to diversity of thought to improve model performance. We propose a method that automatically improves prompt diversity by soliciting feedback from the LLM to ideate approaches that fit for the problem. We then ensemble the diverse prompts in our method DIV-SE (DIVerse reasoning path Self-Ensemble) across multiple inference calls. We also propose a cost-effective alternative where diverse prompts are used within a single inference call; we call this IDIV-SE (In-call DIVerse reasoning path Self-Ensemble). Under a fixed generation budget, DIV-SE and IDIV-SE outperform the previously discussed baselines using both GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 on several reasoning benchmarks, without modifying the decoding process. Additionally, DIV-SE advances state-of-the-art performance on recent planning benchmarks (Valmeekam et al., 2023), exceeding the highest previously reported accuracy by at least 29.6 percentage points on the most challenging 4/5 Blocksworld task. Our results shed light on how to enforce prompt diversity toward LLM reasoning and thereby improve the pareto frontier of the accuracy-cost trade-off.

Natural data are often long-tail distributed over semantic classes. Existing recognition methods tackle this imbalanced classification by placing more emphasis on the tail data, through class re-balancing/re-weighting or ensembling over different data groups, resulting in increased tail accuracies but reduced head accuracies. We take a dynamic view of the training data and provide a principled model bias and variance analysis as the training data fluctuates: Existing long-tail classifiers invariably increase the model variance and the head-tail model bias gap remains large, due to more and larger confusion with hard negatives for the tail. We propose a new long-tailed classifier called RoutIng Diverse Experts (RIDE). It reduces the model variance with multiple experts, reduces the model bias with a distribution-aware diversity loss, reduces the computational cost with a dynamic expert routing module. RIDE outperforms the state-of-the-art by 5% to 7% on CIFAR100-LT, ImageNet-LT and iNaturalist 2018 benchmarks. It is also a universal framework that is applicable to various backbone networks, long-tailed algorithms, and training mechanisms for consistent performance gains. Our code is available at: https://github.com/frank-xwang/RIDE-LongTailRecognition.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) approaches encompass traditional methods that optimize fixed pipelines for model selection and ensembling, as well as newer LLM-based frameworks that autonomously build pipelines. While LLM-based agents have shown promise in automating machine learning tasks, they often generate low-diversity and suboptimal code, even after multiple iterations. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Tree-Search Enhanced LLM Agents (SELA), an innovative agent-based system that leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to optimize the AutoML process. By representing pipeline configurations as trees, our framework enables agents to conduct experiments intelligently and iteratively refine their strategies, facilitating a more effective exploration of the machine learning solution space. This novel approach allows SELA to discover optimal pathways based on experimental feedback, improving the overall quality of the solutions. In an extensive evaluation across 20 machine learning datasets, we compare the performance of traditional and agent-based AutoML methods, demonstrating that SELA achieves a win rate of 65% to 80% against each baseline across all datasets. These results underscore the significant potential of agent-based strategies in AutoML, offering a fresh perspective on tackling complex machine learning challenges.

Large pre-trained models such as CLIP or ALIGN offer consistent accuracy across a range of data distributions when performing zero-shot inference (i.e., without fine-tuning on a specific dataset). Although existing fine-tuning methods substantially improve accuracy on a given target distribution, they often reduce robustness to distribution shifts. We address this tension by introducing a simple and effective method for improving robustness while fine-tuning: ensembling the weights of the zero-shot and fine-tuned models (WiSE-FT). Compared to standard fine-tuning, WiSE-FT provides large accuracy improvements under distribution shift, while preserving high accuracy on the target distribution. On ImageNet and five derived distribution shifts, WiSE-FT improves accuracy under distribution shift by 4 to 6 percentage points (pp) over prior work while increasing ImageNet accuracy by 1.6 pp. WiSE-FT achieves similarly large robustness gains (2 to 23 pp) on a diverse set of six further distribution shifts, and accuracy gains of 0.8 to 3.3 pp compared to standard fine-tuning on seven commonly used transfer learning datasets. These improvements come at no additional computational cost during fine-tuning or inference.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, with different models excelling in distinct domains and specific abilities. Effectively combining the predictions of multiple LLMs is crucial for enhancing system robustness and performance. However, existing ensemble methods often rely on simple techniques like voting or logits ensembling, which overlook the varying confidence and reliability of models in different contexts. In this work, we propose LENS (Learning ENsemble confidence from Neural States), a novel approach that learns to estimate model confidence by analyzing internal representations. For each LLM, we train a lightweight linear confidence predictor that leverages layer-wise hidden states and normalized probabilities as inputs. This allows for more nuanced weighting of model predictions based on their context-dependent reliability. Our method does not require modifying the model parameters and requires negligible additional computation. Experimental results on multiple-choice and boolean question-answering tasks demonstrate that LENS outperforms traditional ensemble methods by a substantial margin. Our findings suggest that internal representations provide valuable signals for determining model confidence and can be effectively leveraged for ensemble learning.

We consider the use of automated supervised learning systems for data tables that not only contain numeric/categorical columns, but one or more text fields as well. Here we assemble 18 multimodal data tables that each contain some text fields and stem from a real business application. Our publicly-available benchmark enables researchers to comprehensively evaluate their own methods for supervised learning with numeric, categorical, and text features. To ensure that any single modeling strategy which performs well over all 18 datasets will serve as a practical foundation for multimodal text/tabular AutoML, the diverse datasets in our benchmark vary greatly in: sample size, problem types (a mix of classification and regression tasks), number of features (with the number of text columns ranging from 1 to 28 between datasets), as well as how the predictive signal is decomposed between text vs. numeric/categorical features (and predictive interactions thereof). Over this benchmark, we evaluate various straightforward pipelines to model such data, including standard two-stage approaches where NLP is used to featurize the text such that AutoML for tabular data can then be applied. Compared with human data science teams, the fully automated methodology that performed best on our benchmark (stack ensembling a multimodal Transformer with various tree models) also manages to rank 1st place when fit to the raw text/tabular data in two MachineHack prediction competitions and 2nd place (out of 2380 teams) in Kaggle's Mercari Price Suggestion Challenge.

Using in-context learning (ICL) for data generation, techniques such as Self-Instruct (Wang et al., 2023) or the follow-up Alpaca (Taori et al., 2023) can train strong conversational agents with only a small amount of human supervision. One limitation of these approaches is that they resort to very large language models (around 175B parameters) that are also proprietary and non-public. Here we explore the application of such techniques to language models that are much smaller (around 10B--40B parameters) and have permissive licenses. We find the Self-Instruct approach to be less effective at these sizes and propose new ICL methods that draw on two main ideas: (a) Categorization and simplification of the ICL templates to make prompt learning easier for the LM, and (b) Ensembling over multiple LM outputs to help select high-quality synthetic examples. Our algorithm leverages the 175 Self-Instruct seed tasks and employs separate pipelines for instructions that require an input and instructions that do not. Empirical investigations with different LMs show that: (1) Our proposed method yields higher-quality instruction tuning data than Self-Instruct, (2) It improves performances of both vanilla and instruction-tuned LMs by significant margins, and (3) Smaller instruction-tuned LMs generate more useful outputs than their larger un-tuned counterparts. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/IBM/ensemble-instruct.

Pretrained language models have significantly advanced performance across various natural language processing tasks. However, adversarial attacks continue to pose a critical challenge to systems built using these models, as they can be exploited with carefully crafted adversarial texts. Inspired by the ability of diffusion models to predict and reduce noise in computer vision, we propose a novel and flexible adversarial defense method for language classification tasks, DiffuseDef, which incorporates a diffusion layer as a denoiser between the encoder and the classifier. The diffusion layer is trained on top of the existing classifier, ensuring seamless integration with any model in a plug-and-play manner. During inference, the adversarial hidden state is first combined with sampled noise, then denoised iteratively and finally ensembled to produce a robust text representation. By integrating adversarial training, denoising, and ensembling techniques, we show that DiffuseDef improves over existing adversarial defense methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance against common black-box and white-box adversarial attacks.

In cross-lingual transfer, NLP models over one or more source languages are applied to a low-resource target language. While most prior work has used a single source model or a few carefully selected models, here we consider a `massive' setting with many such models. This setting raises the problem of poor transfer, particularly from distant languages. We propose two techniques for modulating the transfer, suitable for zero-shot or few-shot learning, respectively. Evaluating on named entity recognition, we show that our techniques are much more effective than strong baselines, including standard ensembling, and our unsupervised method rivals oracle selection of the single best individual model.

Pretrained language models (PLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in various natural language processing tasks: Unidirectional PLMs (e.g., GPT) are well known for their superior text generation capabilities; bidirectional PLMs (e.g., BERT) have been the prominent choice for natural language understanding (NLU) tasks. While both types of models have achieved promising few-shot learning performance, their potential for zero-shot learning has been underexplored. In this paper, we present a simple approach that uses both types of PLMs for fully zero-shot learning of NLU tasks without requiring any task-specific data: A unidirectional PLM generates class-conditioned texts guided by prompts, which are used as the training data for fine-tuning a bidirectional PLM. With quality training data selected based on the generation probability and regularization techniques (label smoothing and temporal ensembling) applied to the fine-tuning stage for better generalization and stability, our approach demonstrates strong performance across seven classification tasks of the GLUE benchmark (e.g., 72.3/73.8 on MNLI-m/mm and 92.8 on SST-2), significantly outperforming zero-shot prompting methods and achieving even comparable results to strong few-shot approaches using 32 training samples per class.

The Natural Language Processing(NLP) community has been using crowd sourcing techniques to create benchmark datasets such as General Language Understanding and Evaluation(GLUE) for training modern Language Models such as BERT. GLUE tasks measure the reliability scores using inter annotator metrics i.e. Cohens Kappa. However, the reliability aspect of LMs has often been overlooked. To counter this problem, we explore a knowledge-guided LM ensembling approach that leverages reinforcement learning to integrate knowledge from ConceptNet and Wikipedia as knowledge graph embeddings. This approach mimics human annotators resorting to external knowledge to compensate for information deficits in the datasets. Across nine GLUE datasets, our research shows that ensembling strengthens reliability and accuracy scores, outperforming state of the art.

Ensembling neural networks is an effective way to increase accuracy, and can often match the performance of individual larger models. This observation poses a natural question: given the choice between a deep ensemble and a single neural network with similar accuracy, is one preferable over the other? Recent work suggests that deep ensembles may offer distinct benefits beyond predictive power: namely, uncertainty quantification and robustness to dataset shift. In this work, we demonstrate limitations to these purported benefits, and show that a single (but larger) neural network can replicate these qualities. First, we show that ensemble diversity, by any metric, does not meaningfully contribute to an ensemble's uncertainty quantification on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but is instead highly correlated with the relative improvement of a single larger model. Second, we show that the OOD performance afforded by ensembles is strongly determined by their in-distribution (InD) performance, and -- in this sense -- is not indicative of any "effective robustness". While deep ensembles are a practical way to achieve improvements to predictive power, uncertainty quantification, and robustness, our results show that these improvements can be replicated by a (larger) single model.

Does the dominant approach to learn representations (as a side effect of optimizing an expected cost for a single training distribution) remain a good approach when we are dealing with multiple distributions? Our thesis is that such scenarios are better served by representations that are richer than those obtained with a single optimization episode. We support this thesis with simple theoretical arguments and with experiments utilizing an apparently na\"{\i}ve ensembling technique: concatenating the representations obtained from multiple training episodes using the same data, model, algorithm, and hyper-parameters, but different random seeds. These independently trained networks perform similarly. Yet, in a number of scenarios involving new distributions, the concatenated representation performs substantially better than an equivalently sized network trained with a single training run. This proves that the representations constructed by multiple training episodes are in fact different. Although their concatenation carries little additional information about the training task under the training distribution, it becomes substantially more informative when tasks or distributions change. Meanwhile, a single training episode is unlikely to yield such a redundant representation because the optimization process has no reason to accumulate features that do not incrementally improve the training performance.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

We investigate the unsupervised constituency parsing task, which organizes words and phrases of a sentence into a hierarchical structure without using linguistically annotated data. We observe that existing unsupervised parsers capture differing aspects of parsing structures, which can be leveraged to enhance unsupervised parsing performance. To this end, we propose a notion of "tree averaging," based on which we further propose a novel ensemble method for unsupervised parsing. To improve inference efficiency, we further distill the ensemble knowledge into a student model; such an ensemble-then-distill process is an effective approach to mitigate the over-smoothing problem existing in common multi-teacher distilling methods. Experiments show that our method surpasses all previous approaches, consistently demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness across various runs, with different ensemble components, and under domain-shift conditions.

Speech brain-computer interfaces aim to decipher what a person is trying to say from neural activity alone, restoring communication to people with paralysis who have lost the ability to speak intelligibly. The Brain-to-Text Benchmark '24 and associated competition was created to foster the advancement of decoding algorithms that convert neural activity to text. Here, we summarize the lessons learned from the competition ending on June 1, 2024 (the top 4 entrants also presented their experiences in a recorded webinar). The largest improvements in accuracy were achieved using an ensembling approach, where the output of multiple independent decoders was merged using a fine-tuned large language model (an approach used by all 3 top entrants). Performance gains were also found by improving how the baseline recurrent neural network (RNN) model was trained, including by optimizing learning rate scheduling and by using a diphone training objective. Improving upon the model architecture itself proved more difficult, however, with attempts to use deep state space models or transformers not yet appearing to offer a benefit over the RNN baseline. The benchmark will remain open indefinitely to support further work towards increasing the accuracy of brain-to-text algorithms.

Automating machine learning has achieved remarkable technological developments in recent years, and building an automated machine learning pipeline is now an essential task. The model ensemble is the technique of combining multiple models to get a better and more robust model. However, existing automated machine learning tends to be simplistic in handling the model ensemble, where the ensemble strategy is fixed, such as stacked generalization. There have been many techniques on different ensemble methods, especially ensemble selection, and the fixed ensemble strategy limits the upper limit of the model's performance. In this article, we present a novel framework for automated machine learning. Our framework incorporates advances in dynamic ensemble selection, and to our best knowledge, our approach is the first in the field of AutoML to search and optimize ensemble strategies. In the comparison experiments, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art automated machine learning frameworks with the same CPU time in 42 classification datasets from the OpenML platform. Ablation experiments on our framework validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

A very simple way to improve the performance of almost any machine learning algorithm is to train many different models on the same data and then to average their predictions. Unfortunately, making predictions using a whole ensemble of models is cumbersome and may be too computationally expensive to allow deployment to a large number of users, especially if the individual models are large neural nets. Caruana and his collaborators have shown that it is possible to compress the knowledge in an ensemble into a single model which is much easier to deploy and we develop this approach further using a different compression technique. We achieve some surprising results on MNIST and we show that we can significantly improve the acoustic model of a heavily used commercial system by distilling the knowledge in an ensemble of models into a single model. We also introduce a new type of ensemble composed of one or more full models and many specialist models which learn to distinguish fine-grained classes that the full models confuse. Unlike a mixture of experts, these specialist models can be trained rapidly and in parallel.

We introduce a method to generate 3D scenes that are disentangled into their component objects. This disentanglement is unsupervised, relying only on the knowledge of a large pretrained text-to-image model. Our key insight is that objects can be discovered by finding parts of a 3D scene that, when rearranged spatially, still produce valid configurations of the same scene. Concretely, our method jointly optimizes multiple NeRFs from scratch - each representing its own object - along with a set of layouts that composite these objects into scenes. We then encourage these composited scenes to be in-distribution according to the image generator. We show that despite its simplicity, our approach successfully generates 3D scenes decomposed into individual objects, enabling new capabilities in text-to-3D content creation. For results and an interactive demo, see our project page at https://dave.ml/layoutlearning/

LLM Ensemble -- which involves the comprehensive use of multiple large language models (LLMs), each aimed at handling user queries during downstream inference, to benefit from their individual strengths -- has gained substantial attention recently. The widespread availability of LLMs, coupled with their varying strengths and out-of-the-box usability, has profoundly advanced the field of LLM Ensemble. This paper presents the first systematic review of recent developments in LLM Ensemble. First, we introduce our taxonomy of LLM Ensemble and discuss several related research problems. Then, we provide a more in-depth classification of the methods under the broad categories of "ensemble-before-inference, ensemble-during-inference, ensemble-after-inference'', and review all relevant methods. Finally, we introduce related benchmarks and applications, summarize existing studies, and suggest several future research directions. A curated list of papers on LLM Ensemble is available at https://github.com/junchenzhi/Awesome-LLM-Ensemble.

Model fusing has always been an important topic, especially in an era where large language models (LLM) and multi-modal language models (MLM) with different architectures, parameter sizes and training pipelines, are being created all the time. In this work, we propose a post-hoc framework, aiming at fusing heterogeneous models off-the-shell, which we call likelihood composition, and the basic idea is to compose multiple models' likelihood distribution when doing a multi-choice visual-question-answering task. Here the core concept, likelihood, is actually the log-probability of the candidate answer. In likelihood composition, we introduce some basic operations: debias, highlight, majority-vote and ensemble. By combining (composing) these basic elements, we get the mixed composition methods: mix-composition. Through conducting comprehensive experiments on 9 VQA datasets and 10 MLMs, we prove the effectiveness of mix-composition compared with simple ensemble or majority-vote methods. In this framework, people can propose new basic composition methods and combine them to get the new mixed composition methods. We hope our proposed likelihood composition can provide a new perspective of fusing heterogeneous models and inspire the exploration under this framework.

Since compute grows much faster than web text available for language model pre-training, we ask how one should approach pre-training under fixed data and no compute constraints. We first show that existing data-constrained approaches of increasing epoch count and parameter count eventually overfit, and we significantly improve upon such recipes by properly tuning regularization, finding that the optimal weight decay is 30times larger than standard practice. Since our regularized recipe monotonically decreases loss following a simple power law in parameter count, we estimate its best possible performance via the asymptote of its scaling law rather than the performance at a fixed compute budget. We then identify that ensembling independently trained models achieves a significantly lower loss asymptote than the regularized recipe. Our best intervention combining epoching, regularization, parameter scaling, and ensemble scaling achieves an asymptote at 200M tokens using 5.17times less data than our baseline, and our data scaling laws predict that this improvement persists at higher token budgets. We find that our data efficiency gains can be realized at much smaller parameter counts as we can distill an ensemble into a student model that is 8times smaller and retains 83% of the ensembling benefit. Finally, our interventions designed for validation loss generalize to downstream benchmarks, achieving a 9% improvement for pre-training evals and a 17.5times data efficiency improvement over continued pre-training on math mid-training data. Our results show that simple algorithmic improvements can enable significantly more data-efficient pre-training in a compute-rich future.

When learning an input-output mapping from very few examples, is it better to first infer a latent function that explains the examples, or is it better to directly predict new test outputs, e.g. using a neural network? We study this question on ARC by training neural models for induction (inferring latent functions) and transduction (directly predicting the test output for a given test input). We train on synthetically generated variations of Python programs that solve ARC training tasks. We find inductive and transductive models solve different kinds of test problems, despite having the same training problems and sharing the same neural architecture: Inductive program synthesis excels at precise computations, and at composing multiple concepts, while transduction succeeds on fuzzier perceptual concepts. Ensembling them approaches human-level performance on ARC.

Foundational Language Models (FLMs) have advanced natural language processing (NLP) research. Current researchers are developing larger FLMs (e.g., XLNet, T5) to enable contextualized language representation, classification, and generation. While developing larger FLMs has been of significant advantage, it is also a liability concerning hallucination and predictive uncertainty. Fundamentally, larger FLMs are built on the same foundations as smaller FLMs (e.g., BERT); hence, one must recognize the potential of smaller FLMs which can be realized through an ensemble. In the current research, we perform a reality check on FLMs and their ensemble on benchmark and real-world datasets. We hypothesize that the ensembling of FLMs can influence the individualistic attention of FLMs and unravel the strength of coordination and cooperation of different FLMs. We utilize BERT and define three other ensemble techniques: {Shallow, Semi, and Deep}, wherein the Deep-Ensemble introduces a knowledge-guided reinforcement learning approach. We discovered that the suggested Deep-Ensemble BERT outperforms its large variation i.e. BERTlarge, by a factor of many times using datasets that show the usefulness of NLP in sensitive fields, such as mental health.

Model ensemble has been in widespread use for Grammatical Error Correction (GEC), boosting model performance. We hypothesize that model ensemble based on the perplexity (PPL) computed by pre-trained language models (PLMs) should benefit the GEC system. To this end, we explore several ensemble strategies based on strong PLMs with four sophisticated single models. However, the performance does not improve but even gets worse after the PLM-based ensemble. This surprising result sets us doing a detailed analysis on the data and coming up with some insights on GEC. The human references of correct sentences is far from sufficient in the test data, and the gap between a correct sentence and an idiomatic one is worth our attention. Moreover, the PLM-based ensemble strategies provide an effective way to extend and improve GEC benchmark data. Our source code is available at https://github.com/JamyDon/PLM-based-CGEC-Model-Ensemble.

Ensembling outputs from diverse sources is a straightforward yet effective approach to boost performance. Mixture-of-Agents (MoA) is one such popular ensemble method that aggregates outputs from multiple different Large Language Models (LLMs). This paper raises the question in the context of language models: is mixing different LLMs truly beneficial? We propose Self-MoA -- an ensemble method that aggregates outputs from only the single top-performing LLM. Our extensive experiments reveal that, surprisingly, Self-MoA outperforms standard MoA that mixes different LLMs in a large number of scenarios: Self-MoA achieves 6.6% improvement over MoA on the AlpacaEval 2.0 benchmark, and an average of 3.8% improvement across various benchmarks, including MMLU, CRUX, and MATH. Applying Self-MoA to one of the top-ranking models in AlpacaEval 2.0 directly achieves the new state-of-the-art performance on the leaderboard. To understand the effectiveness of Self-MoA, we systematically investigate the trade-off between diversity and quality of outputs under various MoA settings. We confirm that the MoA performance is rather sensitive to the quality, and mixing different LLMs often lowers the average quality of the models. To complement the study, we identify the scenarios where mixing different LLMs could be helpful. This paper further introduces a sequential version of Self-MoA, that is capable of aggregating a large number of LLM outputs on-the-fly over multiple rounds, and is as effective as aggregating all outputs at once.

Fine-tuning pre-trained language models has become the prevalent paradigm for building downstream NLP models. Oftentimes fine-tuned models are readily available but their training data is not, due to data privacy or intellectual property concerns. This creates a barrier to fusing knowledge across individual models to yield a better single model. In this paper, we study the problem of merging individual models built on different training data sets to obtain a single model that performs well both across all data set domains and can generalize on out-of-domain data. We propose a dataless knowledge fusion method that merges models in their parameter space, guided by weights that minimize prediction differences between the merged model and the individual models. Over a battery of evaluation settings, we show that the proposed method significantly outperforms baselines such as Fisher-weighted averaging or model ensembling. Further, we find that our method is a promising alternative to multi-task learning that can preserve or sometimes improve over the individual models without access to the training data. Finally, model merging is more efficient than training a multi-task model, thus making it applicable to a wider set of scenarios.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

Deep Ensembles (DE) are a prominent approach for achieving excellent performance on key metrics such as accuracy, calibration, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection. However, hardware limitations of real-world systems constrain to smaller ensembles and lower-capacity networks, significantly deteriorating their performance and properties. We introduce Packed-Ensembles (PE), a strategy to design and train lightweight structured ensembles by carefully modulating the dimension of their encoding space. We leverage grouped convolutions to parallelize the ensemble into a single shared backbone and forward pass to improve training and inference speeds. PE is designed to operate within the memory limits of a standard neural network. Our extensive research indicates that PE accurately preserves the properties of DE, such as diversity, and performs equally well in terms of accuracy, calibration, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to distribution shift. We make our code available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty.

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) is increasingly recognized as an effective method in speech processing. However, the optimal approach and the placement of PEFT methods remain inconclusive. Our study conducts extensive experiments to compare different PEFT methods and their layer-wise placement adapting Differentiable Architecture Search (DARTS). We also explore the use of ensemble learning to leverage diverse PEFT strategies. The results reveal that DARTS does not outperform the baseline approach, which involves inserting the same PEFT method into all layers of a Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) model. In contrast, an ensemble learning approach, particularly one employing majority voting, demonstrates superior performance. Our statistical evidence indicates that different PEFT methods learn in varied ways. This variation might explain why the synergistic integration of various PEFT methods through ensemble learning can harness their unique learning capabilities more effectively compared to individual layer-wise optimization.

Ensembling large language models (LLMs) can effectively combine diverse strengths of different models, offering a promising approach to enhance performance across various tasks. However, existing methods typically rely on fixed weighting strategies that fail to adapt to the dynamic, context-dependent characteristics of LLM capabilities. In this work, we propose Reinforcement Learning-Assisted Ensemble for LLMs (RLAE), a novel framework that reformulates LLM ensemble through the lens of a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Our approach introduces a RL agent that dynamically adjusts ensemble weights by considering both input context and intermediate generation states, with the agent being trained using rewards that directly correspond to the quality of final outputs. We implement RLAE using both single-agent and multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms (RLAE_PPO and RLAE_MAPPO ), demonstrating substantial improvements over conventional ensemble methods. Extensive evaluations on a diverse set of tasks show that RLAE outperforms existing approaches by up to 3.3% accuracy points, offering a more effective framework for LLM ensembling. Furthermore, our method exhibits superior generalization capabilities across different tasks without the need for retraining, while simultaneously achieving lower time latency.

Recent advancements in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have significantly expanded their utility in tasks like image captioning and visual question answering. However, they still struggle with object hallucination, where models generate descriptions that inaccurately reflect the visual content by including nonexistent objects or misrepresenting existing ones. While previous methods, such as data augmentation and training-free approaches, strive to tackle this issue, they still encounter scalability challenges and often depend on additional external modules. In this work, we propose Ensemble Decoding (ED), a novel strategy that splits the input image into sub-images and combines logit distributions by assigning weights through the attention map. Furthermore, we introduce ED adaptive plausibility constraint to calibrate logit distribution and FastED, a variant designed for speed-critical applications. Extensive experiments across hallucination benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance, validating the effectiveness of our approach.

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen future data. Under this view, we show that deep ensembling (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017) is a fundamentally mis-specified model class, since it assumes that future data are supported on existing observations only -- a situation rarely encountered in practice. To address this limitation, we propose MixupMP, a method that constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using popular data augmentation techniques. MixupMP operates as a drop-in replacement for deep ensembles, where each ensemble member is trained on a random simulation from this predictive distribution. Grounded in the recently-proposed framework of Martingale posteriors (Fong et al., 2023), MixupMP returns samples from an implicitly defined Bayesian posterior. Our empirical analysis showcases that MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets, when compared with existing Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches.

Prompt-based learning has shown considerable promise in reformulating various downstream tasks as cloze problems by combining original input with a predetermined template. This approach demonstrates its effectiveness, especially in few-shot learning scenarios, where the model is trained on a scarce amount of data. Despite its successes, the limited templates and text in few-shot prompt-based learning scenarios leave significant room for performance improvement. Moreover, existing methods sometimes resort to model ensembles, which, while effective, could potentially hamper model efficiency due to increased computational demands. To address these issues, we introduce MixPro, an augmentation method designed to augment both the vanilla input text and the templates. We implement this through the token-level, the sentence-level, and the template-level Mixup strategies. The experimental results on five few-shot datasets show that MixPro outperforms other augmentation baselines, improving model performance by an average of 5.08% compared to before augmentation.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) systems commonly ensemble models post hoc to improve predictive performance, typically via greedy ensemble selection (GES). However, we believe that GES may not always be optimal, as it performs a simple deterministic greedy search. In this work, we introduce two novel population-based ensemble selection methods, QO-ES and QDO-ES, and compare them to GES. While QO-ES optimises solely for predictive performance, QDO-ES also considers the diversity of ensembles within the population, maintaining a diverse set of well-performing ensembles during optimisation based on ideas of quality diversity optimisation. The methods are evaluated using 71 classification datasets from the AutoML benchmark, demonstrating that QO-ES and QDO-ES often outrank GES, albeit only statistically significant on validation data. Our results further suggest that diversity can be beneficial for post hoc ensembling but also increases the risk of overfitting.

Numerous crucial tasks in real-world decision-making rely on machine learning algorithms with calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident and uncalibrated predictions. Various approaches involve training an ensemble of separate models to quantify the uncertainty related to the model itself, known as epistemic uncertainty. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory requirements. This particular challenge is evident in state-of-the-art neural networks such as transformers, where even a single network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory. Consequently, efforts are made to emulate the ensemble model without actually instantiating separate ensemble members, referred to as implicit ensembling. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient deep ensemble method for self-attention networks, which is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Initially developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, we extend LoRA to an implicit ensembling approach. By employing a single pre-trained self-attention network with weights shared across all members, we train member-specific low-rank matrices for the attention projections. Our method exhibits superior calibration compared to explicit ensembles and achieves similar or better accuracy across various prediction tasks and datasets.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the L_2 distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the L_2 distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.

Combining different models is a widely used paradigm in machine learning applications. While the most common approach is to form an ensemble of models and average their individual predictions, this approach is often rendered infeasible by given resource constraints in terms of memory and computation, which grow linearly with the number of models. We present a layer-wise model fusion algorithm for neural networks that utilizes optimal transport to (soft-) align neurons across the models before averaging their associated parameters. We show that this can successfully yield "one-shot" knowledge transfer (i.e, without requiring any retraining) between neural networks trained on heterogeneous non-i.i.d. data. In both i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings , we illustrate that our approach significantly outperforms vanilla averaging, as well as how it can serve as an efficient replacement for the ensemble with moderate fine-tuning, for standard convolutional networks (like VGG11), residual networks (like ResNet18), and multi-layer perceptrons on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and MNIST. Finally, our approach also provides a principled way to combine the parameters of neural networks with different widths, and we explore its application for model compression. The code is available at the following link, https://github.com/sidak/otfusion.

The remarkable success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has ushered natural language processing (NLP) research into a new era. Despite their diverse capabilities, LLMs trained on different corpora exhibit varying strengths and weaknesses, leading to challenges in maximizing their overall efficiency and versatility. To address these challenges, recent studies have explored collaborative strategies for LLMs. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of this emerging research area, highlighting the motivation behind such collaborations. Specifically, we categorize collaborative strategies into three primary approaches: Merging, Ensemble, and Cooperation. Merging involves integrating multiple LLMs in the parameter space. Ensemble combines the outputs of various LLMs. Cooperation} leverages different LLMs to allow full play to their diverse capabilities for specific tasks. We provide in-depth introductions to these methods from different perspectives and discuss their potential applications. Additionally, we outline future research directions, hoping this work will catalyze further studies on LLM collaborations and paving the way for advanced NLP applications.

Averaging the parameters of models that have the same architecture and initialization can provide a means of combining their respective capabilities. In this paper, we take the perspective that this "merging" operation can be seen as choosing parameters that approximately maximize the joint likelihood of the posteriors of the models' parameters. Computing a simple average of the models' parameters therefore corresponds to making an isotropic Gaussian approximation to their posteriors. We develop an alternative merging procedure based on the Laplace approximation where we approximate each model's posterior as a Gaussian distribution whose precision matrix corresponds to its Fisher information. We first show that our "Fisher merging" technique provides a performance boost in settings where simple parameter averaging is currently used -- specifically, robust fine-tuning and model ensembling. Then, we compare merging to standard gradient-based transfer learning and demonstrate that merging enables a fundamentally different method for transferring capabilities across models. Specifically, we show that Fisher merging is competitive with gradient-based transfer learning approaches (while being significantly cheaper) in intermediate-task training and domain-adaptive pre-training. We also show that our merging procedure makes it possible to combine models in previously unexplored ways. We release our code to facilitate future research into methods for merging models.

Medication Extraction and Mining play an important role in healthcare NLP research due to its practical applications in hospital settings, such as their mapping into standard clinical knowledge bases (SNOMED-CT, BNF, etc.). In this work, we investigate state-of-the-art LLMs in text mining tasks on medications and their related attributes such as dosage, route, strength, and adverse effects. In addition, we explore different ensemble learning methods (Stack-Ensemble and Voting-Ensemble) to augment the model performances from individual LLMs. Our ensemble learning result demonstrated better performances than individually fine-tuned base models BERT, RoBERTa, RoBERTa-L, BioBERT, BioClinicalBERT, BioMedRoBERTa, ClinicalBERT, and PubMedBERT across general and specific domains. Finally, we build up an entity linking function to map extracted medical terminologies into the SNOMED-CT codes and the British National Formulary (BNF) codes, which are further mapped to the Dictionary of Medicines and Devices (dm+d), and ICD. Our model's toolkit and desktop applications are publicly available at https://github.com/HECTA-UoM/ensemble-NER.

Researchers have proposed a wide variety of model explanation approaches, but it remains unclear how most methods are related or when one method is preferable to another. We examine the literature and find that many methods are based on a shared principle of explaining by removing - essentially, measuring the impact of removing sets of features from a model. These methods vary in several respects, so we develop a framework for removal-based explanations that characterizes each method along three dimensions: 1) how the method removes features, 2) what model behavior the method explains, and 3) how the method summarizes each feature's influence. Our framework unifies 26 existing methods, including several of the most widely used approaches (SHAP, LIME, Meaningful Perturbations, permutation tests). Exposing the fundamental similarities between these methods empowers users to reason about which tools to use, and suggests promising directions for ongoing model explainability research.

When writing a summary, humans tend to choose content from one or two sentences and merge them into a single summary sentence. However, the mechanisms behind the selection of one or multiple source sentences remain poorly understood. Sentence fusion assumes multi-sentence input; yet sentence selection methods only work with single sentences and not combinations of them. There is thus a crucial gap between sentence selection and fusion to support summarizing by both compressing single sentences and fusing pairs. This paper attempts to bridge the gap by ranking sentence singletons and pairs together in a unified space. Our proposed framework attempts to model human methodology by selecting either a single sentence or a pair of sentences, then compressing or fusing the sentence(s) to produce a summary sentence. We conduct extensive experiments on both single- and multi-document summarization datasets and report findings on sentence selection and abstraction.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

We present a method for simultaneously localizing multiple sound sources within a visual scene. This task requires a model to both group a sound mixture into individual sources, and to associate them with a visual signal. Our method jointly solves both tasks at once, using a formulation inspired by the contrastive random walk of Jabri et al. We create a graph in which images and separated sounds correspond to nodes, and train a random walker to transition between nodes from different modalities with high return probability. The transition probabilities for this walk are determined by an audio-visual similarity metric that is learned by our model. We show through experiments with musical instruments and human speech that our model can successfully localize multiple sounds, outperforming other self-supervised methods. Project site: https://hxixixh.github.io/mix-and-localize

Model merging is an efficient empowerment technique in the machine learning community that does not require the collection of raw training data and does not require expensive computation. As model merging becomes increasingly prevalent across various fields, it is crucial to understand the available model merging techniques comprehensively. However, there is a significant gap in the literature regarding a systematic and thorough review of these techniques. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of model merging methods and theories, their applications in various domains and settings, and future research directions. Specifically, we first propose a new taxonomic approach that exhaustively discusses existing model merging methods. Secondly, we discuss the application of model merging techniques in large language models, multimodal large language models, and 10+ machine learning subfields, including continual learning, multi-task learning, few-shot learning, etc. Finally, we highlight the remaining challenges of model merging and discuss future research directions. A comprehensive list of papers about model merging is available at https://github.com/EnnengYang/Awesome-Model-Merging-Methods-Theories-Applications.

We define disentanglement as how far class-different data points from each other are, relative to the distances among class-similar data points. When maximizing disentanglement during representation learning, we obtain a transformed feature representation where the class memberships of the data points are preserved. If the class memberships of the data points are preserved, we would have a feature representation space in which a nearest neighbour classifier or a clustering algorithm would perform well. We take advantage of this method to learn better natural language representation, and employ it on text classification and text clustering tasks. Through disentanglement, we obtain text representations with better-defined clusters and improve text classification performance. Our approach had a test classification accuracy of as high as 90.11% and test clustering accuracy of 88% on the AG News dataset, outperforming our baseline models -- without any other training tricks or regularization.

Deep ensembles (DE) have been successful in improving model performance by learning diverse members via the stochasticity of random initialization. While recent works have attempted to promote further diversity in DE via hyperparameters or regularizing loss functions, these methods primarily still rely on a stochastic approach to explore the hypothesis space. In this work, we present Multi-Symmetry Ensembles (MSE), a framework for constructing diverse ensembles by capturing the multiplicity of hypotheses along symmetry axes, which explore the hypothesis space beyond stochastic perturbations of model weights and hyperparameters. We leverage recent advances in contrastive representation learning to create models that separately capture opposing hypotheses of invariant and equivariant functional classes and present a simple ensembling approach to efficiently combine appropriate hypotheses for a given task. We show that MSE effectively captures the multiplicity of conflicting hypotheses that is often required in large, diverse datasets like ImageNet. As a result of their inherent diversity, MSE improves classification performance, uncertainty quantification, and generalization across a series of transfer tasks.

This book introduces the mathematical foundations and techniques that lead to the development and analysis of many of the algorithms that are used in machine learning. It starts with an introductory chapter that describes notation used throughout the book and serve at a reminder of basic concepts in calculus, linear algebra and probability and also introduces some measure theoretic terminology, which can be used as a reading guide for the sections that use these tools. The introductory chapters also provide background material on matrix analysis and optimization. The latter chapter provides theoretical support to many algorithms that are used in the book, including stochastic gradient descent, proximal methods, etc. After discussing basic concepts for statistical prediction, the book includes an introduction to reproducing kernel theory and Hilbert space techniques, which are used in many places, before addressing the description of various algorithms for supervised statistical learning, including linear methods, support vector machines, decision trees, boosting, or neural networks. The subject then switches to generative methods, starting with a chapter that presents sampling methods and an introduction to the theory of Markov chains. The following chapter describe the theory of graphical models, an introduction to variational methods for models with latent variables, and to deep-learning based generative models. The next chapters focus on unsupervised learning methods, for clustering, factor analysis and manifold learning. The final chapter of the book is theory-oriented and discusses concentration inequalities and generalization bounds.

Ensemble methods enhance Large Language Models (LLMs) by combining multiple models but suffer from high computational costs. In this paper, we introduce Speculative Ensemble, a novel framework that accelerates LLM ensembles without sacrificing performance, inspired by Speculative Decoding-where a small proposal model generates tokens sequentially, and a larger target model verifies them in parallel. Our approach builds on two key insights: (1) the verification distribution can be the ensemble distribution of both the proposal and target models, and (2) alternating each model as the proposer and verifier can further enhance efficiency. We generalize this method to ensembles with n models and theoretically prove that SE is never slower than a standard ensemble, typically achieving faster speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate speed improvements of 1.11x-2.23x over standard ensemble techniques without compromising generation quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/Kamichanw/Speculative-Ensemble/

Large language models have demonstrated exceptional performance across a wide range of tasks. However, dense models usually suffer from sparse activation, where many activation values tend towards zero (i.e., being inactivated). We argue that this could restrict the efficient exploration of model representation space. To mitigate this issue, we propose Finedeep, a deep-layered fine-grained expert architecture for dense models. Our framework partitions the feed-forward neural network layers of traditional dense models into small experts, arranges them across multiple sub-layers. A novel routing mechanism is proposed to determine each expert's contribution. We conduct extensive experiments across various model sizes, demonstrating that our approach significantly outperforms traditional dense architectures in terms of perplexity and benchmark performance while maintaining a comparable number of parameters and floating-point operations. Moreover, we find that Finedeep achieves optimal results when balancing depth and width, specifically by adjusting the number of expert sub-layers and the number of experts per sub-layer. Empirical results confirm that Finedeep effectively alleviates sparse activation and efficiently utilizes representation capacity in dense models.

Ensembles of independently trained neural networks are a state-of-the-art approach to estimate predictive uncertainty in Deep Learning, and can be interpreted as an approximation of the posterior distribution via a mixture of delta functions. The training of ensembles relies on non-convexity of the loss landscape and random initialization of their individual members, making the resulting posterior approximation uncontrolled. This paper proposes a novel and principled method to tackle this limitation, minimizing an f-divergence between the true posterior and a kernel density estimator (KDE) in a function space. We analyze this objective from a combinatorial point of view, and show that it is submodular with respect to mixture components for any f. Subsequently, we consider the problem of greedy ensemble construction. From the marginal gain on the negative f-divergence, which quantifies an improvement in posterior approximation yielded by adding a new component into the KDE, we derive a novel diversity term for ensemble methods. The performance of our approach is demonstrated on computer vision out-of-distribution detection benchmarks in a range of architectures trained on multiple datasets. The source code of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/greedy_ensembles_training.

More and more processes governing our lives use in some part an automatic decision step, where -- based on a feature vector derived from an applicant -- an algorithm has the decision power over the final outcome. Here we present a simple idea which gives some of the power back to the applicant by providing her with alternatives which would make the decision algorithm decide differently. It is based on a formalization reminiscent of methods used for evasion attacks, and consists in enumerating the subspaces where the classifiers decides the desired output. This has been implemented for the specific case of decision forests (ensemble methods based on decision trees), mapping the problem to an iterative version of enumerating k-cliques.

The dissemination of Large Language Models (LLMs), trained at scale, and endowed with powerful text-generating abilities, has made it easier for all to produce harmful, toxic, faked or forged content. In response, various proposals have been made to automatically discriminate artificially generated from human-written texts, typically framing the problem as a binary classification problem. Early approaches evaluate an input document with a well-chosen detector LLM, assuming that low-perplexity scores reliably signal machine-made content. More recent systems instead consider two LLMs and compare their probability distributions over the document to further discriminate when perplexity alone cannot. However, using a fixed pair of models can induce brittleness in performance. We extend these approaches to the ensembling of several LLMs and derive a new, theoretically grounded approach to combine their respective strengths. Our experiments, conducted with various generator LLMs, indicate that this approach effectively leverages the strengths of each model, resulting in robust detection performance across multiple domains. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/BaggerOfWords/MOSAIC .

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers, randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias- and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles -- because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

We explore diverse representations of speech audio, and their effect on a performance of late fusion ensemble of E-Branchformer models, applied to Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) task. Although it is generally known that ensemble methods often improve the performance of the system even for speech recognition, it is very interesting to explore how ensembles of complex state-of-the-art models, such as medium-sized and large E-Branchformers, cope in this setting when their base models are trained on diverse representations of the input speech audio. The results are evaluated on four widely-used benchmark datasets: Librispeech, Aishell, Gigaspeech, TEDLIUMv2 and show that improvements of 1% - 14% can still be achieved over the state-of-the-art models trained using comparable techniques on these datasets. A noteworthy observation is that such ensemble offers improvements even with the use of language models, although the gap is closing.

Following the standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) paradigm, in-context learning (ICL) has become an efficient approach propelled by the recent advancements in large language models (LLMs), yielding promising performance across various tasks in few-shot data setups. However, both paradigms are prone to suffer from the critical problem of overconfidence (i.e., miscalibration), especially in such limited data setups. In this work, we deliver an in-depth analysis of the behavior across different choices of learning methods from the perspective of both performance and calibration, as well as their interplay. Through extensive controlled experiments, we find that simultaneous gains for both task performance and calibration are difficult to achieve, and the problem of miscalibration exists across all learning methods in low-resource scenarios. To address this challenging trade-off between performance and calibration, we then investigate the potential of self-ensembling techniques applied at different modeling stages (e.g., variations of in-context examples or variations in prompts or different ensembling strategies). We justify the feasibility of self-ensembling on SFT in addition to ICL, to make the predictions more calibrated and have comparable or even better performance. Our work sheds light on which learning paradigm to choose and how to enhance both task performance and calibration of LLMs.

The availability of performant pre-trained models has led to a proliferation of fine-tuned expert models that are specialized to a particular domain or task. Model MoErging methods aim to recycle expert models to create an aggregate system with improved performance or generalization. A key component of MoErging methods is the creation of a router that decides which expert model(s) to use for a particular input or application. The promise, effectiveness, and large design space of MoErging has spurred the development of many new methods over the past few years. This rapid pace of development has made it challenging to compare different MoErging methods, which are rarely compared to one another and are often validated in different experimental setups. To remedy such gaps, we present a comprehensive survey of MoErging methods that includes a novel taxonomy for cataloging key design choices and clarifying suitable applications for each method. Apart from surveying MoErging research, we inventory software tools and applications that make use of MoErging. We additionally discuss related fields of study such as model merging, multitask learning, and mixture-of-experts models. Taken as a whole, our survey provides a unified overview of existing MoErging methods and creates a solid foundation for future work in this burgeoning field.

We address the problem of synthesizing multi-view optical illusions: images that change appearance upon a transformation, such as a flip or rotation. We propose a simple, zero-shot method for obtaining these illusions from off-the-shelf text-to-image diffusion models. During the reverse diffusion process, we estimate the noise from different views of a noisy image, and then combine these noise estimates together and denoise the image. A theoretical analysis suggests that this method works precisely for views that can be written as orthogonal transformations, of which permutations are a subset. This leads to the idea of a visual anagram--an image that changes appearance under some rearrangement of pixels. This includes rotations and flips, but also more exotic pixel permutations such as a jigsaw rearrangement. Our approach also naturally extends to illusions with more than two views. We provide both qualitative and quantitative results demonstrating the effectiveness and flexibility of our method. Please see our project webpage for additional visualizations and results: https://dangeng.github.io/visual_anagrams/

Despite remarkable progress achieved, most neural architecture search (NAS) methods focus on searching for one single accurate and robust architecture. To further build models with better generalization capability and performance, model ensemble is usually adopted and performs better than stand-alone models. Inspired by the merits of model ensemble, we propose to search for multiple diverse models simultaneously as an alternative way to find powerful models. Searching for ensembles is non-trivial and has two key challenges: enlarged search space and potentially more complexity for the searched model. In this paper, we propose a one-shot neural ensemble architecture search (NEAS) solution that addresses the two challenges. For the first challenge, we introduce a novel diversity-based metric to guide search space shrinking, considering both the potentiality and diversity of candidate operators. For the second challenge, we enable a new search dimension to learn layer sharing among different models for efficiency purposes. The experiments on ImageNet clearly demonstrate that our solution can improve the supernet's capacity of ranking ensemble architectures, and further lead to better search results. The discovered architectures achieve superior performance compared with state-of-the-arts such as MobileNetV3 and EfficientNet families under aligned settings. Moreover, we evaluate the generalization ability and robustness of our searched architecture on the COCO detection benchmark and achieve a 3.1% improvement on AP compared with MobileNetV3. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/researchmm/NEAS.

We introduce a new type of programming challenge called programming puzzles, as an objective and comprehensive evaluation of program synthesis, and release an open-source dataset of Python Programming Puzzles (P3). Each puzzle is defined by a short Python program f, and the goal is to find an input which makes f return True. The puzzles are objective in that each one is specified entirely by the source code of its verifier f, so evaluating f is all that is needed to test a candidate solution. They do not require an answer key or input/output examples, nor do they depend on natural language understanding. The dataset is comprehensive in that it spans problems of a range of difficulties and domains, ranging from trivial string manipulation problems, to classic programming puzzles (e.g., Tower of Hanoi), to interview/competitive-programming problems (e.g., dynamic programming), to longstanding open problems in algorithms and mathematics (e.g., factoring). We develop baseline enumerative program synthesis, GPT-3 and Codex solvers that are capable of solving puzzles -- even without access to any reference solutions -- by learning from their own past solutions. Codex performs best, solving up to 18% of 397 test problems with a single try and 80% of the problems with 1,000 tries per problem. In a small user study, we find a positive correlation between puzzle-solving performance and coding experience, and between the puzzle difficulty for humans and AI solvers. Therefore, further improvements on P3 could have a significant impact on many program synthesis areas.

Clustering is a NP-hard problem. Thus, no optimal algorithm exists, heuristics are applied to cluster the data. Heuristics can be very resource-intensive, if not applied properly. For substantially large data sets computational efficiencies can be achieved by reducing the input space if a minimal loss of information can be achieved. Clustering algorithms, in general, face two common problems: 1) these converge to different settings with different initial conditions and; 2) the number of clusters has to be arbitrarily decided beforehand. This problem has become critical in the realm of big data. Recently, clustering algorithms have emerged which can speedup computations using parallel processing over the grid but face the aforementioned problems. Goals: Our goals are to find methods to cluster data which: 1) guarantee convergence to the same settings irrespective of the initial conditions; 2) eliminate the need to establish the number of clusters beforehand, and 3) can be applied to cluster large datasets. Methods: We introduce a method that combines probabilistic and combinatorial clustering methods to produce repeatable and compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method harnesses the power of k-means (a combinatorial clustering method) to cluster/partition very large dimensional datasets and uses the Gaussian Mixture Model (a probabilistic clustering method) to validate the k-means partitions. Results: We show that this method produces very compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method can be used to identify the most 'separable' set in a dataset which increases the 'clusterability' of a dataset. This method also eliminates the need to specify the number of clusters in advance.

We propose a deep-learning system -- for the SQuAD2.0 task -- that finds, or indicates the lack of, a correct answer to a question in a context paragraph. Our goal is to learn an ensemble of heterogeneous SQuAD2.0 models that, when blended properly, outperforms the best model in the ensemble per se. We created a stacking ensemble that combines top-N predictions from two models, based on ALBERT and RoBERTa, into a multiclass classification task to pick the best answer out of their predictions. We explored various ensemble configurations, input representations, and model architectures. For evaluation, we examined test-set EM and F1 scores; our best-performing ensemble incorporated a CNN-based meta-model and scored 87.117 and 90.306, respectively -- a relative improvement of 0.55% for EM and 0.61% for F1 scores, compared to the baseline performance of the best model in the ensemble, an ALBERT-based model, at 86.644 for EM and 89.760 for F1.

We describe the University of Amsterdam Intelligent Data Engineering Lab team's entry for the SemEval-2024 Task 6 competition. The SHROOM-INDElab system builds on previous work on using prompt programming and in-context learning with large language models (LLMs) to build classifiers for hallucination detection, and extends that work through the incorporation of context-specific definition of task, role, and target concept, and automated generation of examples for use in a few-shot prompting approach. The resulting system achieved fourth-best and sixth-best performance in the model-agnostic track and model-aware tracks for Task 6, respectively, and evaluation using the validation sets showed that the system's classification decisions were consistent with those of the crowd-sourced human labellers. We further found that a zero-shot approach provided better accuracy than a few-shot approach using automatically generated examples. Code for the system described in this paper is available on Github.

With the help of in-context learning (ICL), large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance across various tasks. However, the function of descriptive instructions during ICL remains under-explored. In this work, we propose an ensemble prompt framework to describe the selection criteria of multiple in-context examples, and preliminary experiments on machine translation (MT) across six translation directions confirm that this framework boosts ICL perfromance. But to our surprise, LLMs might not necessarily care what the descriptions actually say, and the performance gain is primarily caused by the ensemble format, since the framework could lead to improvement even with random descriptive nouns. We further apply this new ensemble prompt on a range of commonsense, math, logical reasoning and hallucination tasks with three LLMs and achieve promising results, suggesting again that designing a proper prompt format would be much more effective and efficient than paying effort into specific descriptions. Our code will be publicly available once this paper is published.

An ability that underlies human syntactic knowledge is determining which words can appear in the similar structures (i.e. grouping words by their syntactic categories). These groupings enable humans to combine structures in order to communicate complex meanings. A foundational question is how do children acquire this ability underlying syntactic knowledge. In exploring this process, we will review various engineering approaches whose goal is similar to that of a child's -- without prior syntactic knowledge, correctly identify the parts of speech (POS) of the words in a sample of text. In reviewing these unsupervised tagging efforts, we will discuss common themes that support the advances in the models and their relevance for language acquisition. For example, we discuss how each model judges success (evaluation metrics), the "additional information" that constrains the POS learning (such as orthographic information), and the context used to determine POS (only previous word, words before and after the target, etc). The identified themes pave the way for future investigations into the cognitive processes that underpin the acquisition of syntactic categories and provide a useful layout of current state of the art unsupervised POS tagging models.