Daily Papers

The abundance of instructional videos and their narrations over the Internet offers an exciting avenue for understanding procedural activities. In this work, we propose to learn video representation that encodes both action steps and their temporal ordering, based on a large-scale dataset of web instructional videos and their narrations, without using human annotations. Our method jointly learns a video representation to encode individual step concepts, and a deep probabilistic model to capture both temporal dependencies and immense individual variations in the step ordering. We empirically demonstrate that learning temporal ordering not only enables new capabilities for procedure reasoning, but also reinforces the recognition of individual steps. Our model significantly advances the state-of-the-art results on step classification (+2.8% / +3.3% on COIN / EPIC-Kitchens) and step forecasting (+7.4% on COIN). Moreover, our model attains promising results in zero-shot inference for step classification and forecasting, as well as in predicting diverse and plausible steps for incomplete procedures. Our code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/ProcedureVRL.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Ever since the Multilayered Perceptron was first introduced the connectionist community has struggled with the concept of uncertainty and how this could be represented in these types of models. This past decade has seen a lot of effort in trying to join the principled approach of probabilistic modeling with the scalable nature of deep neural networks. While the theoretical benefits of this consolidation are clear, there are also several important practical aspects of these endeavors; namely to force the models we create to represent, learn, and report uncertainty in every prediction that is made. Many of these efforts have been based on extending existing frameworks with additional structures. We present Borch, a scalable deep universal probabilistic programming language, built on top of PyTorch. The code is available for download and use in our repository https://gitlab.com/desupervised/borch.

The success of machine learning algorithms generally depends on data representation, and we hypothesize that this is because different representations can entangle and hide more or less the different explanatory factors of variation behind the data. Although specific domain knowledge can be used to help design representations, learning with generic priors can also be used, and the quest for AI is motivating the design of more powerful representation-learning algorithms implementing such priors. This paper reviews recent work in the area of unsupervised feature learning and deep learning, covering advances in probabilistic models, auto-encoders, manifold learning, and deep networks. This motivates longer-term unanswered questions about the appropriate objectives for learning good representations, for computing representations (i.e., inference), and the geometrical connections between representation learning, density estimation and manifold learning.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general and unified computational framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various inference tasks (e.g., computing marginal probabilities). Towards enabling such reasoning capabilities in complex real-world tasks, Liu et al. (2022) propose to distill knowledge (through latent variable assignments) from less tractable but more expressive deep generative models. However, it is still unclear what factors make this distillation work well. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically discover that the performance of a PC can exceed that of its teacher model. Therefore, instead of performing distillation from the most expressive deep generative model, we study what properties the teacher model and the PC should have in order to achieve good distillation performance. This leads to a generic algorithmic improvement as well as other data-type-specific ones over the existing latent variable distillation pipeline. Empirically, we outperform SoTA TPMs by a large margin on challenging image modeling benchmarks. In particular, on ImageNet32, PCs achieve 4.06 bits-per-dimension, which is only 0.34 behind variational diffusion models (Kingma et al., 2021).

Solving parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) and associated PDE-based, inverse problems is a central task in engineering and physics, yet existing neural operator methods struggle with high-dimensional, discontinuous inputs and require large amounts of {\em labeled} training data. We propose the Deep Generative Neural Operator (DGNO), a physics-aware framework that addresses these challenges by leveraging a deep, generative, probabilistic model in combination with a set of lower-dimensional, latent variables that simultaneously encode PDE-inputs and PDE-outputs. This formulation can make use of unlabeled data and significantly improves inverse problem-solving, particularly for discontinuous or discrete-valued input functions. DGNO enforces physics constraints without labeled data by incorporating as virtual observables, weak-form residuals based on compactly supported radial basis functions (CSRBFs). These relax regularity constraints and eliminate higher-order derivatives from the objective function. We also introduce MultiONet, a novel neural operator architecture, which is a more expressive generalization of the popular DeepONet that significantly enhances the approximating power of the proposed model. These innovations make DGNO particularly effective for challenging forward and inverse, PDE-based problems, such as those involving multi-phase media. Numerical experiments demonstrate that DGNO achieves higher accuracy across multiple benchmarks while exhibiting robustness to noise and strong generalization to out-of-distribution cases. Its adaptability, and the ability to handle sparse, noisy data while providing probabilistic estimates, make DGNO a powerful tool for scientific and engineering applications.

The success of Deep Learning applications critically depends on the quality and scale of the underlying training data. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) can generate arbitrary large datasets, but diversity and fidelity are limited, which has recently been addressed by denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) whose superiority has been demonstrated on natural images. In this study, we propose Medfusion, a conditional latent DDPM for medical images. We compare our DDPM-based model against GAN-based models, which constitute the current state-of-the-art in the medical domain. Medfusion was trained and compared with (i) StyleGan-3 on n=101,442 images from the AIROGS challenge dataset to generate fundoscopies with and without glaucoma, (ii) ProGAN on n=191,027 from the CheXpert dataset to generate radiographs with and without cardiomegaly and (iii) wGAN on n=19,557 images from the CRCMS dataset to generate histopathological images with and without microsatellite stability. In the AIROGS, CRMCS, and CheXpert datasets, Medfusion achieved lower (=better) FID than the GANs (11.63 versus 20.43, 30.03 versus 49.26, and 17.28 versus 84.31). Also, fidelity (precision) and diversity (recall) were higher (=better) for Medfusion in all three datasets. Our study shows that DDPM are a superior alternative to GANs for image synthesis in the medical domain.

Deep point cloud registration methods face challenges to partial overlaps and rely on labeled data. To address these issues, we propose UDPReg, an unsupervised deep probabilistic registration framework for point clouds with partial overlaps. Specifically, we first adopt a network to learn posterior probability distributions of Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) from point clouds. To handle partial point cloud registration, we apply the Sinkhorn algorithm to predict the distribution-level correspondences under the constraint of the mixing weights of GMMs. To enable unsupervised learning, we design three distribution consistency-based losses: self-consistency, cross-consistency, and local contrastive. The self-consistency loss is formulated by encouraging GMMs in Euclidean and feature spaces to share identical posterior distributions. The cross-consistency loss derives from the fact that the points of two partially overlapping point clouds belonging to the same clusters share the cluster centroids. The cross-consistency loss allows the network to flexibly learn a transformation-invariant posterior distribution of two aligned point clouds. The local contrastive loss facilitates the network to extract discriminative local features. Our UDPReg achieves competitive performance on the 3DMatch/3DLoMatch and ModelNet/ModelLoNet benchmarks.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Generative modeling of 3D LiDAR data is an emerging task with promising applications for autonomous mobile robots, such as scalable simulation, scene manipulation, and sparse-to-dense completion of LiDAR point clouds. While existing approaches have demonstrated the feasibility of image-based LiDAR data generation using deep generative models, they still struggle with fidelity and training stability. In this work, we present R2DM, a novel generative model for LiDAR data that can generate diverse and high-fidelity 3D scene point clouds based on the image representation of range and reflectance intensity. Our method is built upon denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), which have shown impressive results among generative model frameworks in recent years. To effectively train DDPMs in the LiDAR domain, we first conduct an in-depth analysis of data representation, loss functions, and spatial inductive biases. Leveraging our R2DM model, we also introduce a flexible LiDAR completion pipeline based on the powerful capabilities of DDPMs. We demonstrate that our method surpasses existing methods in generating tasks on the KITTI-360 and KITTI-Raw datasets, as well as in the completion task on the KITTI-360 dataset. Our project page can be found at https://kazuto1011.github.io/r2dm.

Modern-day surveillance systems perform person recognition using deep learning-based face verification networks. Most state-of-the-art facial verification systems are trained using visible spectrum images. But, acquiring images in the visible spectrum is impractical in scenarios of low-light and nighttime conditions, and often images are captured in an alternate domain such as the thermal infrared domain. Facial verification in thermal images is often performed after retrieving the corresponding visible domain images. This is a well-established problem often known as the Thermal-to-Visible (T2V) image translation. In this paper, we propose a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) based solution for T2V translation specifically for facial images. During training, the model learns the conditional distribution of visible facial images given their corresponding thermal image through the diffusion process. During inference, the visible domain image is obtained by starting from Gaussian noise and performing denoising repeatedly. The existing inference process for DDPMs is stochastic and time-consuming. Hence, we propose a novel inference strategy for speeding up the inference time of DDPMs, specifically for the problem of T2V image translation. We achieve the state-of-the-art results on multiple datasets. The code and pretrained models are publically available at http://github.com/Nithin-GK/T2V-DDPM

Tooth arrangement is a crucial step in orthodontics treatment, in which aligning teeth could improve overall well-being, enhance facial aesthetics, and boost self-confidence. To improve the efficiency of tooth arrangement and minimize errors associated with unreasonable designs by inexperienced practitioners, some deep learning-based tooth arrangement methods have been proposed. Currently, most existing approaches employ MLPs to model the nonlinear relationship between tooth features and transformation matrices to achieve tooth arrangement automatically. However, the limited datasets (which to our knowledge, have not been made public) collected from clinical practice constrain the applicability of existing methods, making them inadequate for addressing diverse malocclusion issues. To address this challenge, we propose a general tooth arrangement neural network based on the diffusion probabilistic model. Conditioned on the features extracted from the dental model, the diffusion probabilistic model can learn the distribution of teeth transformation matrices from malocclusion to normal occlusion by gradually denoising from a random variable, thus more adeptly managing real orthodontic data. To take full advantage of effective features, we exploit both mesh and point cloud representations by designing different encoding networks to extract the tooth (local) and jaw (global) features, respectively. In addition to traditional metrics ADD, PA-ADD, CSA, and ME_{rot}, we propose a new evaluation metric based on dental arch curves to judge whether the generated teeth meet the individual normal occlusion. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art tooth alignment results and satisfactory occlusal relationships between dental arches. We will publish the code and dataset.

We consider the image transmission problem over a noisy wireless channel via deep learning-based joint source-channel coding (DeepJSCC) along with a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) at the receiver. Specifically, we are interested in the perception-distortion trade-off in the practical finite block length regime, in which separate source and channel coding can be highly suboptimal. We introduce a novel scheme that utilizes the range-null space decomposition of the target image. We transmit the range-space of the image after encoding and employ DDPM to progressively refine its null space contents. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate significant improvements in distortion and perceptual quality of reconstructed images compared to standard DeepJSCC and the state-of-the-art generative learning-based method. We will publicly share our source code to facilitate further research and reproducibility.

Acquiring and annotating sufficient labeled data is crucial in developing accurate and robust learning-based models, but obtaining such data can be challenging in many medical image segmentation tasks. One promising solution is to synthesize realistic data with ground-truth mask annotations. However, no prior studies have explored generating complete 3D volumetric images with masks. In this paper, we present MedGen3D, a deep generative framework that can generate paired 3D medical images and masks. First, we represent the 3D medical data as 2D sequences and propose the Multi-Condition Diffusion Probabilistic Model (MC-DPM) to generate multi-label mask sequences adhering to anatomical geometry. Then, we use an image sequence generator and semantic diffusion refiner conditioned on the generated mask sequences to produce realistic 3D medical images that align with the generated masks. Our proposed framework guarantees accurate alignment between synthetic images and segmentation maps. Experiments on 3D thoracic CT and brain MRI datasets show that our synthetic data is both diverse and faithful to the original data, and demonstrate the benefits for downstream segmentation tasks. We anticipate that MedGen3D's ability to synthesize paired 3D medical images and masks will prove valuable in training deep learning models for medical imaging tasks.

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to widespread use of techniques for audio content generation, notably employing Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) across various tasks. Among these, Foley Sound Synthesis is of particular interest for its role in applications for the creation of multimedia content. Given the temporal-dependent nature of sound, it is crucial to design generative models that can effectively handle the sequential modeling of audio samples. Selective State Space Models (SSMs) have recently been proposed as a valid alternative to previously proposed techniques, demonstrating competitive performance with lower computational complexity. In this paper, we introduce MambaFoley, a diffusion-based model that, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to leverage the recently proposed SSM known as Mamba for the Foley sound generation task. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we compare it with a state-of-the-art Foley sound generative model using both objective and subjective analyses.

We introduce Graph-Induced Sum-Product Networks (GSPNs), a new probabilistic framework for graph representation learning that can tractably answer probabilistic queries. Inspired by the computational trees induced by vertices in the context of message-passing neural networks, we build hierarchies of sum-product networks (SPNs) where the parameters of a parent SPN are learnable transformations of the a-posterior mixing probabilities of its children's sum units. Due to weight sharing and the tree-shaped computation graphs of GSPNs, we obtain the efficiency and efficacy of deep graph networks with the additional advantages of a probabilistic model. We show the model's competitiveness on scarce supervision scenarios, under missing data, and for graph classification in comparison to popular neural models. We complement the experiments with qualitative analyses on hyper-parameters and the model's ability to answer probabilistic queries.

This paper describes BACON, a basic prototype of an automatic poetry generator with author linguistic style transfer. It combines concepts and techniques from finite state machinery, probabilistic models, artificial neural networks and deep learning, to write original poetry with rich aesthetic-qualities in the style of any given author. Extrinsic evaluation of the output generated by BACON shows that participants were unable to tell the difference between human and AI-generated poems in any statistically significant way.

Accurate extraction of heart rate from photoplethysmography (PPG) signals remains challenging due to motion artifacts and signal degradation. Although deep learning methods trained as a data-driven inference problem offer promising solutions, they often underutilize existing knowledge from the medical and signal processing community. In this paper, we address three shortcomings of deep learning models: motion artifact removal, degradation assessment, and physiologically plausible analysis of the PPG signal. We propose KID-PPG, a knowledge-informed deep learning model that integrates expert knowledge through adaptive linear filtering, deep probabilistic inference, and data augmentation. We evaluate KID-PPG on the PPGDalia dataset, achieving an average mean absolute error of 2.85 beats per minute, surpassing existing reproducible methods. Our results demonstrate a significant performance improvement in heart rate tracking through the incorporation of prior knowledge into deep learning models. This approach shows promise in enhancing various biomedical applications by incorporating existing expert knowledge in deep learning models.

We propose a gradient flow procedure for generative modeling by transporting particles from an initial source distribution to a target distribution, where the gradient field on the particles is given by a noise-adaptive Wasserstein Gradient of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). The noise-adaptive MMD is trained on data distributions corrupted by increasing levels of noise, obtained via a forward diffusion process, as commonly used in denoising diffusion probabilistic models. The result is a generalization of MMD Gradient Flow, which we call Diffusion-MMD-Gradient Flow or DMMD. The divergence training procedure is related to discriminator training in Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), but does not require adversarial training. We obtain competitive empirical performance in unconditional image generation on CIFAR10, MNIST, CELEB-A (64 x64) and LSUN Church (64 x 64). Furthermore, we demonstrate the validity of the approach when MMD is replaced by a lower bound on the KL divergence.

Deep Boltzmann machines (DBMs), one of the first ``deep'' learning methods ever studied, are multi-layered probabilistic models governed by a pairwise energy function that describes the likelihood of all variables/nodes in the network. In practice, DBMs are often constrained, i.e., via the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) architecture (which does not permit intra-layer connections), in order to allow for more efficient inference. In this work, we revisit the generic DBM approach, and ask the question: are there other possible restrictions to their design that would enable efficient (approximate) inference? In particular, we develop a new class of restricted model, the monotone DBM, which allows for arbitrary self-connection in each layer, but restricts the weights in a manner that guarantees the existence and global uniqueness of a mean-field fixed point. To do this, we leverage tools from the recently-proposed monotone Deep Equilibrium model and show that a particular choice of activation results in a fixed-point iteration that gives a variational mean-field solution. While this approach is still largely conceptual, it is the first architecture that allows for efficient approximate inference in fully-general weight structures for DBMs. We apply this approach to simple deep convolutional Boltzmann architectures and demonstrate that it allows for tasks such as the joint completion and classification of images, within a single deep probabilistic setting, while avoiding the pitfalls of mean-field inference in traditional RBMs.

Although Answer Set Programming (ASP) allows constraining neural-symbolic (NeSy) systems, its employment is hindered by the prohibitive costs of computing stable models and the CPU-bound nature of state-of-the-art solvers. To this end, we propose Answer Set Networks (ASN), a NeSy solver. Based on Graph Neural Networks (GNN), ASNs are a scalable approach to ASP-based Deep Probabilistic Logic Programming (DPPL). Specifically, we show how to translate ASPs into ASNs and demonstrate how ASNs can efficiently solve the encoded problem by leveraging GPU's batching and parallelization capabilities. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate that ASNs outperform state-of-the-art CPU-bound NeSy systems on multiple tasks. Simultaneously, we make the following two contributions based on the strengths of ASNs. Namely, we are the first to show the finetuning of Large Language Models (LLM) with DPPLs, employing ASNs to guide the training with logic. Further, we show the "constitutional navigation" of drones, i.e., encoding public aviation laws in an ASN for routing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in uncertain environments.

In supervised learning, understanding an input's proximity to the training data can help a model decide whether it has sufficient evidence for reaching a reliable prediction. While powerful probabilistic models such as Gaussian Processes naturally have this property, deep neural networks often lack it. In this paper, we introduce Distance Aware Bottleneck (DAB), i.e., a new method for enriching deep neural networks with this property. Building on prior information bottleneck approaches, our method learns a codebook that stores a compressed representation of all inputs seen during training. The distance of a new example from this codebook can serve as an uncertainty estimate for the example. The resulting model is simple to train and provides deterministic uncertainty estimates by a single forward pass. Finally, our method achieves better out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and misclassification prediction than prior methods, including expensive ensemble methods, deep kernel Gaussian Processes, and approaches based on the standard information bottleneck.

We propose Neural 3D Articulation Prior (NAP), the first 3D deep generative model to synthesize 3D articulated object models. Despite the extensive research on generating 3D objects, compositions, or scenes, there remains a lack of focus on capturing the distribution of articulated objects, a common object category for human and robot interaction. To generate articulated objects, we first design a novel articulation tree/graph parameterization and then apply a diffusion-denoising probabilistic model over this representation where articulated objects can be generated via denoising from random complete graphs. In order to capture both the geometry and the motion structure whose distribution will affect each other, we design a graph-attention denoising network for learning the reverse diffusion process. We propose a novel distance that adapts widely used 3D generation metrics to our novel task to evaluate generation quality, and experiments demonstrate our high performance in articulated object generation. We also demonstrate several conditioned generation applications, including Part2Motion, PartNet-Imagination, Motion2Part, and GAPart2Object.

Capturing highly appreciated star field images is extremely challenging due to light pollution, the requirements of specialized hardware, and the high level of photographic skills needed. Deep learning-based techniques have achieved remarkable results in low-light image enhancement (LLIE) but have not been widely applied to star field image enhancement due to the lack of training data. To address this problem, we construct the first Star Field Image Enhancement Benchmark (SFIEB) that contains 355 real-shot and 854 semi-synthetic star field images, all having the corresponding reference images. Using the presented dataset, we propose the first star field image enhancement approach, namely StarDiffusion, based on conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM). We introduce dynamic stochastic corruptions to the inputs of conditional DDPM to improve the performance and generalization of the network on our small-scale dataset. Experiments show promising results of our method, which outperforms state-of-the-art low-light image enhancement algorithms. The dataset and codes will be open-sourced.

Limitations on bandwidth and power consumption impose strict bounds on data rates of diagnostic imaging systems. Consequently, the design of suitable (i.e. task- and data-aware) compression and reconstruction techniques has attracted considerable attention in recent years. Compressed sensing emerged as a popular framework for sparse signal reconstruction from a small set of compressed measurements. However, typical compressed sensing designs measure a (non)linearly weighted combination of all input signal elements, which poses practical challenges. These designs are also not necessarily task-optimal. In addition, real-time recovery is hampered by the iterative and time-consuming nature of sparse recovery algorithms. Recently, deep learning methods have shown promise for fast recovery from compressed measurements, but the design of adequate and practical sensing strategies remains a challenge. Here, we propose a deep learning solution termed Deep Probabilistic Sub-sampling (DPS), that learns a task-driven sub-sampling pattern, while jointly training a subsequent task model. Once learned, the task-based sub-sampling patterns are fixed and straightforwardly implementable, e.g. by non-uniform analog-to-digital conversion, sparse array design, or slow-time ultrasound pulsing schemes. The effectiveness of our framework is demonstrated in-silico for sparse signal recovery from partial Fourier measurements, and in-vivo for both anatomical image and tissue-motion (Doppler) reconstruction from sub-sampled medical ultrasound imaging data.

To the best of our knowledge, we first present a live system that generates personalized photorealistic talking-head animation only driven by audio signals at over 30 fps. Our system contains three stages. The first stage is a deep neural network that extracts deep audio features along with a manifold projection to project the features to the target person's speech space. In the second stage, we learn facial dynamics and motions from the projected audio features. The predicted motions include head poses and upper body motions, where the former is generated by an autoregressive probabilistic model which models the head pose distribution of the target person. Upper body motions are deduced from head poses. In the final stage, we generate conditional feature maps from previous predictions and send them with a candidate image set to an image-to-image translation network to synthesize photorealistic renderings. Our method generalizes well to wild audio and successfully synthesizes high-fidelity personalized facial details, e.g., wrinkles, teeth. Our method also allows explicit control of head poses. Extensive qualitative and quantitative evaluations, along with user studies, demonstrate the superiority of our method over state-of-the-art techniques.

Prototype-based classification learning methods are known to be inherently interpretable. However, this paradigm suffers from major limitations compared to deep models, such as lower performance. This led to the development of the so-called deep Prototype-Based Networks (PBNs), also known as prototypical parts models. In this work, we analyze these models with respect to different properties, including interpretability. In particular, we focus on the Classification-by-Components (CBC) approach, which uses a probabilistic model to ensure interpretability and can be used as a shallow or deep architecture. We show that this model has several shortcomings, like creating contradicting explanations. Based on these findings, we propose an extension of CBC that solves these issues. Moreover, we prove that this extension has robustness guarantees and derive a loss that optimizes robustness. Additionally, our analysis shows that most (deep) PBNs are related to (deep) RBF classifiers, which implies that our robustness guarantees generalize to shallow RBF classifiers. The empirical evaluation demonstrates that our deep PBN yields state-of-the-art classification accuracy on different benchmarks while resolving the interpretability shortcomings of other approaches. Further, our shallow PBN variant outperforms other shallow PBNs while being inherently interpretable and exhibiting provable robustness guarantees.

Despite the remarkable progress in deep generative models, synthesizing high-resolution and temporally coherent videos still remains a challenge due to their high-dimensionality and complex temporal dynamics along with large spatial variations. Recent works on diffusion models have shown their potential to solve this challenge, yet they suffer from severe computation- and memory-inefficiency that limit the scalability. To handle this issue, we propose a novel generative model for videos, coined projected latent video diffusion models (PVDM), a probabilistic diffusion model which learns a video distribution in a low-dimensional latent space and thus can be efficiently trained with high-resolution videos under limited resources. Specifically, PVDM is composed of two components: (a) an autoencoder that projects a given video as 2D-shaped latent vectors that factorize the complex cubic structure of video pixels and (b) a diffusion model architecture specialized for our new factorized latent space and the training/sampling procedure to synthesize videos of arbitrary length with a single model. Experiments on popular video generation datasets demonstrate the superiority of PVDM compared with previous video synthesis methods; e.g., PVDM obtains the FVD score of 639.7 on the UCF-101 long video (128 frames) generation benchmark, which improves 1773.4 of the prior state-of-the-art.

Solving complex classification tasks using deep neural networks typically requires large amounts of annotated data. However, corresponding class labels are noisy when provided by error-prone annotators, e.g., crowd workers. Training standard deep neural networks leads to subpar performances in such multi-annotator supervised learning settings. We address this issue by presenting a probabilistic training framework named multi-annotator deep learning (MaDL). A ground truth and an annotator performance model are jointly trained in an end-to-end learning approach. The ground truth model learns to predict instances' true class labels, while the annotator performance model infers probabilistic estimates of annotators' performances. A modular network architecture enables us to make varying assumptions regarding annotators' performances, e.g., an optional class or instance dependency. Further, we learn annotator embeddings to estimate annotators' densities within a latent space as proxies of their potentially correlated annotations. Together with a weighted loss function, we improve the learning from correlated annotation patterns. In a comprehensive evaluation, we examine three research questions about multi-annotator supervised learning. Our findings indicate MaDL's state-of-the-art performance and robustness against many correlated, spamming annotators.

We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Voice conversion is a method that allows for the transformation of speaking style while maintaining the integrity of linguistic information. There are many researchers using deep generative models for voice conversion tasks. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) can quickly generate high-quality samples, but the generated samples lack diversity. The samples generated by the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) are better than GANs in terms of mode coverage and sample diversity. But the DDPMs have high computational costs and the inference speed is slower than GANs. In order to make GANs and DDPMs more practical we proposes DiffGAN-VC, a variant of GANs and DDPMS, to achieve non-parallel many-to-many voice conversion (VC). We use large steps to achieve denoising, and also introduce a multimodal conditional GANs to model the denoising diffusion generative adversarial network. According to both objective and subjective evaluation experiments, DiffGAN-VC has been shown to achieve high voice quality on non-parallel data sets. Compared with the CycleGAN-VC method, DiffGAN-VC achieves speaker similarity, naturalness and higher sound quality.

Syntactic structures used to play a vital role in natural language processing (NLP), but since the deep learning revolution, NLP has been gradually dominated by neural models that do not consider syntactic structures in their design. One vastly successful class of neural models is transformers. When used as an encoder, a transformer produces contextual representation of words in the input sentence. In this work, we propose a new model of contextual word representation, not from a neural perspective, but from a purely syntactic and probabilistic perspective. Specifically, we design a conditional random field that models discrete latent representations of all words in a sentence as well as dependency arcs between them; and we use mean field variational inference for approximate inference. Strikingly, we find that the computation graph of our model resembles transformers, with correspondences between dependencies and self-attention and between distributions over latent representations and contextual embeddings of words. Experiments show that our model performs competitively to transformers on small to medium sized datasets. We hope that our work could help bridge the gap between traditional syntactic and probabilistic approaches and cutting-edge neural approaches to NLP, and inspire more linguistically-principled neural approaches in the future.

In this study, we investigate how environmental factors, specifically the scenes and objects involved, can affect the expression of emotions through body language. To this end, we introduce a novel multi-stream deep convolutional neural network named BEE-NET. We also propose a new late fusion strategy that incorporates meta-information on places and objects as prior knowledge in the learning process. Our proposed probabilistic pooling model leverages this information to generate a joint probability distribution of both available and anticipated non-available contextual information in latent space. Importantly, our fusion strategy is differentiable, allowing for end-to-end training and capturing of hidden associations among data points without requiring further post-processing or regularisation. To evaluate our deep model, we use the Body Language Database (BoLD), which is currently the largest available database for the Automatic Identification of the in-the-wild Bodily Expression of Emotions (AIBEE). Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach surpasses the current state-of-the-art in AIBEE by a margin of 2.07%, achieving an Emotional Recognition Score of 66.33%.

During a geosteering operation the well path is intentionally adjusted in response to the new data acquired while drilling. To achieve consistent high-quality decisions, especially when drilling in complex environments, decision support systems can help cope with high volumes of data and interpretation complexities. They can assimilate the real-time measurements into a probabilistic earth model and use the updated model for decision recommendations. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have enabled a wide range of methods that redistribute computational cost from on-line to off-line calculations. In this paper, we introduce two ML techniques into the geosteering decision support framework. Firstly, a complex earth model representation is generated using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). Secondly, a commercial extra-deep electromagnetic simulator is represented using a Forward Deep Neural Network (FDNN). The numerical experiments demonstrate that the combination of the GAN and the FDNN in an ensemble randomized maximum likelihood data assimilation scheme provides real-time estimates of complex geological uncertainty. This yields reduction of geological uncertainty ahead of the drill-bit from the measurements gathered behind and around the well bore.

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNNs) have recently shown state of the art performance in high level vision tasks, such as image classification and object detection. This work brings together methods from DCNNs and probabilistic graphical models for addressing the task of pixel-level classification (also called "semantic image segmentation"). We show that responses at the final layer of DCNNs are not sufficiently localized for accurate object segmentation. This is due to the very invariance properties that make DCNNs good for high level tasks. We overcome this poor localization property of deep networks by combining the responses at the final DCNN layer with a fully connected Conditional Random Field (CRF). Qualitatively, our "DeepLab" system is able to localize segment boundaries at a level of accuracy which is beyond previous methods. Quantitatively, our method sets the new state-of-art at the PASCAL VOC-2012 semantic image segmentation task, reaching 71.6% IOU accuracy in the test set. We show how these results can be obtained efficiently: Careful network re-purposing and a novel application of the 'hole' algorithm from the wavelet community allow dense computation of neural net responses at 8 frames per second on a modern GPU.

CLAX is a JAX-based library that implements classic click models using modern gradient-based optimization. While neural click models have emerged over the past decade, complex click models based on probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have not systematically adopted gradient-based optimization, preventing practitioners from leveraging modern deep learning frameworks while preserving the interpretability of classic models. CLAX addresses this gap by replacing EM-based optimization with direct gradient-based optimization in a numerically stable manner. The framework's modular design enables the integration of any component, from embeddings and deep networks to custom modules, into classic click models for end-to-end optimization. We demonstrate CLAX's efficiency by running experiments on the full Baidu-ULTR dataset comprising over a billion user sessions in approx 2 hours on a single GPU, orders of magnitude faster than traditional EM approaches. CLAX implements ten classic click models, serving both industry practitioners seeking to understand user behavior and improve ranking performance at scale and researchers developing new click models. CLAX is available at: https://github.com/philipphager/clax

The paper copes with the task of automatic assessment of second language proficiency from the language learners' spoken responses to test prompts. The task has significant relevance to the field of computer assisted language learning. The approach presented in the paper relies on two separate modules: (1) an automatic speech recognition system that yields text transcripts of the spoken interactions involved, and (2) a multiple classifier system based on deep learners that ranks the transcripts into proficiency classes. Different deep neural network architectures (both feed-forward and recurrent) are specialized over diverse representations of the texts in terms of: a reference grammar, the outcome of probabilistic language models, several word embeddings, and two bag-of-word models. Combination of the individual classifiers is realized either via a probabilistic pseudo-joint model, or via a neural mixture of experts. Using the data of the third Spoken CALL Shared Task challenge, the highest values to date were obtained in terms of three popular evaluation metrics.

In this work we address the task of semantic image segmentation with Deep Learning and make three main contributions that are experimentally shown to have substantial practical merit. First, we highlight convolution with upsampled filters, or 'atrous convolution', as a powerful tool in dense prediction tasks. Atrous convolution allows us to explicitly control the resolution at which feature responses are computed within Deep Convolutional Neural Networks. It also allows us to effectively enlarge the field of view of filters to incorporate larger context without increasing the number of parameters or the amount of computation. Second, we propose atrous spatial pyramid pooling (ASPP) to robustly segment objects at multiple scales. ASPP probes an incoming convolutional feature layer with filters at multiple sampling rates and effective fields-of-views, thus capturing objects as well as image context at multiple scales. Third, we improve the localization of object boundaries by combining methods from DCNNs and probabilistic graphical models. The commonly deployed combination of max-pooling and downsampling in DCNNs achieves invariance but has a toll on localization accuracy. We overcome this by combining the responses at the final DCNN layer with a fully connected Conditional Random Field (CRF), which is shown both qualitatively and quantitatively to improve localization performance. Our proposed "DeepLab" system sets the new state-of-art at the PASCAL VOC-2012 semantic image segmentation task, reaching 79.7% mIOU in the test set, and advances the results on three other datasets: PASCAL-Context, PASCAL-Person-Part, and Cityscapes. All of our code is made publicly available online.

Structured variational autoencoders (SVAEs) combine probabilistic graphical model priors on latent variables, deep neural networks to link latent variables to observed data, and structure-exploiting algorithms for approximate posterior inference. These models are particularly appealing for sequential data, where the prior can capture temporal dependencies. However, despite their conceptual elegance, SVAEs have proven difficult to implement, and more general approaches have been favored in practice. Here, we revisit SVAEs using modern machine learning tools and demonstrate their advantages over more general alternatives in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. First, we develop a modern implementation for hardware acceleration, parallelization, and automatic differentiation of the message passing algorithms at the core of the SVAE. Second, we show that by exploiting structure in the prior, the SVAE learns more accurate models and posterior distributions, which translate into improved performance on prediction tasks. Third, we show how the SVAE can naturally handle missing data, and we leverage this ability to develop a novel, self-supervised training approach. Altogether, these results show that the time is ripe to revisit structured variational autoencoders.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Limited-Angle Computed Tomography (LACT) is a non-destructive evaluation technique used in a variety of applications ranging from security to medicine. The limited angle coverage in LACT is often a dominant source of severe artifacts in the reconstructed images, making it a challenging inverse problem. We present DOLCE, a new deep model-based framework for LACT that uses a conditional diffusion model as an image prior. Diffusion models are a recent class of deep generative models that are relatively easy to train due to their implementation as image denoisers. DOLCE can form high-quality images from severely under-sampled data by integrating data-consistency updates with the sampling updates of a diffusion model, which is conditioned on the transformed limited-angle data. We show through extensive experimentation on several challenging real LACT datasets that, the same pre-trained DOLCE model achieves the SOTA performance on drastically different types of images. Additionally, we show that, unlike standard LACT reconstruction methods, DOLCE naturally enables the quantification of the reconstruction uncertainty by generating multiple samples consistent with the measured data.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures and convolutional or local connections between layers. Equipped with tensorized truncated variational inference, our LGMs can be efficiently trained via backpropagation on mainstream deep learning frameworks such as PyTorch. To deal with continuous valued inputs, we use a simple yet effective soft-clamping strategy for efficient inference. Through extensive experiments on image classification over MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets, we demonstrate that LGMs are capable of achieving competitive results comparable to NNs of similar architectures, while preserving transparent probabilistic modeling.

Existing neural ranking models follow the text matching paradigm, where document-to-query relevance is estimated through predicting the matching score. Drawing from the rich literature of classical generative retrieval models, we introduce and formalize the paradigm of deep generative retrieval models defined via the cumulative probabilities of generating query terms. This paradigm offers a grounded probabilistic view on relevance estimation while still enabling the use of modern neural architectures. In contrast to the matching paradigm, the probabilistic nature of generative rankers readily offers a fine-grained measure of uncertainty. We adopt several current neural generative models in our framework and introduce a novel generative ranker (T-PGN), which combines the encoding capacity of Transformers with the Pointer Generator Network model. We conduct an extensive set of evaluation experiments on passage retrieval, leveraging the MS MARCO Passage Re-ranking and TREC Deep Learning 2019 Passage Re-ranking collections. Our results show the significantly higher performance of the T-PGN model when compared with other generative models. Lastly, we demonstrate that exploiting the uncertainty information of deep generative rankers opens new perspectives to query/collection understanding, and significantly improves the cut-off prediction task.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

Structured output representation is a generative task explored in computer vision that often times requires the mapping of low dimensional features to high dimensional structured outputs. Losses in complex spatial information in deterministic approaches such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) lead to uncertainties and ambiguous structures within a single output representation. A probabilistic approach through deep Conditional Generative Models (CGM) is presented by Sohn et al. in which a particular model known as the Conditional Variational Auto-encoder (CVAE) is introduced and explored. While the original paper focuses on the task of image segmentation, this paper adopts the CVAE framework for the task of controlled output representation through attributes. This approach allows us to learn a disentangled multimodal prior distribution, resulting in more controlled and robust approach to sample generation. In this work we recreate the CVAE architecture and train it on images conditioned on various attributes obtained from two image datasets; the Large-scale CelebFaces Attributes (CelebA) dataset and the Caltech-UCSD Birds (CUB-200-2011) dataset. We attempt to generate new faces with distinct attributes such as hair color and glasses, as well as different bird species samples with various attributes. We further introduce strategies for improving generalized sample generation by applying a weighted term to the variational lower bound.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has successfully solved various problems recently, typically with a unimodal policy representation. However, grasping distinguishable skills for some tasks with non-unique optima can be essential for further improving its learning efficiency and performance, which may lead to a multimodal policy represented as a mixture-of-experts (MOE). To our best knowledge, present DRL algorithms for general utility do not deploy this method as policy function approximators due to the potential challenge in its differentiability for policy learning. In this work, we propose a probabilistic mixture-of-experts (PMOE) implemented with a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) for multimodal policy, together with a novel gradient estimator for the indifferentiability problem, which can be applied in generic off-policy and on-policy DRL algorithms using stochastic policies, e.g., Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) and Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO). Experimental results testify the advantage of our method over unimodal polices and two different MOE methods, as well as a method of option frameworks, based on the above two types of DRL algorithms, on six MuJoCo tasks. Different gradient estimations for GMM like the reparameterisation trick (Gumbel-Softmax) and the score-ratio trick are also compared with our method. We further empirically demonstrate the distinguishable primitives learned with PMOE and show the benefits of our method in terms of exploration.

Historical maps are invaluable for analyzing long-term changes in transportation and spatial development, offering a rich source of data for evolutionary studies. However, digitizing and classifying road networks from these maps is often expensive and time-consuming, limiting their widespread use. Recent advancements in deep learning have made automatic road extraction from historical maps feasible, yet these methods typically require large amounts of labeled training data. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework that integrates deep learning with geoinformation, computer-based painting, and image processing methodologies. This framework enables the extraction and classification of roads from historical maps using only road geometries without needing road class labels for training. The process begins with training of a binary segmentation model to extract road geometries, followed by morphological operations, skeletonization, vectorization, and filtering algorithms. Synthetic training data is then generated by a painting function that artificially re-paints road segments using predefined symbology for road classes. Using this synthetic data, a deep ensemble is trained to generate pixel-wise probabilities for road classes to mitigate distribution shift. These predictions are then discretized along the extracted road geometries. Subsequently, further processing is employed to classify entire roads, enabling the identification of potential changes in road classes and resulting in a labeled road class dataset. Our method achieved completeness and correctness scores of over 94% and 92%, respectively, for road class 2, the most prevalent class in the two Siegfried Map sheets from Switzerland used for testing. This research offers a powerful tool for urban planning and transportation decision-making by efficiently extracting and classifying roads from historical maps.

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

Ranking models lie at the heart of research on information retrieval (IR). During the past decades, different techniques have been proposed for constructing ranking models, from traditional heuristic methods, probabilistic methods, to modern machine learning methods. Recently, with the advance of deep learning technology, we have witnessed a growing body of work in applying shallow or deep neural networks to the ranking problem in IR, referred to as neural ranking models in this paper. The power of neural ranking models lies in the ability to learn from the raw text inputs for the ranking problem to avoid many limitations of hand-crafted features. Neural networks have sufficient capacity to model complicated tasks, which is needed to handle the complexity of relevance estimation in ranking. Since there have been a large variety of neural ranking models proposed, we believe it is the right time to summarize the current status, learn from existing methodologies, and gain some insights for future development. In contrast to existing reviews, in this survey, we will take a deep look into the neural ranking models from different dimensions to analyze their underlying assumptions, major design principles, and learning strategies. We compare these models through benchmark tasks to obtain a comprehensive empirical understanding of the existing techniques. We will also discuss what is missing in the current literature and what are the promising and desired future directions.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

Multivariate time series data for real-world applications typically contain a significant amount of missing values. The dominant approach for classification with such missing values is to impute them heuristically with specific values (zero, mean, values of adjacent time-steps) or learnable parameters. However, these simple strategies do not take the data generative process into account, and more importantly, do not effectively capture the uncertainty in prediction due to the multiple possibilities for the missing values. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for classification with multivariate time series data with missing values. Our model consists of two parts; a deep generative model for missing value imputation and a classifier. Extending the existing deep generative models to better capture structures of time-series data, our deep generative model part is trained to impute the missing values in multiple plausible ways, effectively modeling the uncertainty of the imputation. The classifier part takes the time series data along with the imputed missing values and classifies signals, and is trained to capture the predictive uncertainty due to the multiple possibilities of imputations. Importantly, we show that na\"ively combining the generative model and the classifier could result in trivial solutions where the generative model does not produce meaningful imputations. To resolve this, we present a novel regularization technique that can promote the model to produce useful imputation values that help classification. Through extensive experiments on real-world time series data with missing values, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

In this dissertation we report results of our research on dense distributed representations of text data. We propose two novel neural models for learning such representations. The first model learns representations at the document level, while the second model learns word-level representations. For document-level representations we propose Binary Paragraph Vector: a neural network models for learning binary representations of text documents, which can be used for fast document retrieval. We provide a thorough evaluation of these models and demonstrate that they outperform the seminal method in the field in the information retrieval task. We also report strong results in transfer learning settings, where our models are trained on a generic text corpus and then used to infer codes for documents from a domain-specific dataset. In contrast to previously proposed approaches, Binary Paragraph Vector models learn embeddings directly from raw text data. For word-level representations we propose Disambiguated Skip-gram: a neural network model for learning multi-sense word embeddings. Representations learned by this model can be used in downstream tasks, like part-of-speech tagging or identification of semantic relations. In the word sense induction task Disambiguated Skip-gram outperforms state-of-the-art models on three out of four benchmarks datasets. Our model has an elegant probabilistic interpretation. Furthermore, unlike previous models of this kind, it is differentiable with respect to all its parameters and can be trained with backpropagation. In addition to quantitative results, we present qualitative evaluation of Disambiguated Skip-gram, including two-dimensional visualisations of selected word-sense embeddings.

This paper introduces WaveNet, a deep neural network for generating raw audio waveforms. The model is fully probabilistic and autoregressive, with the predictive distribution for each audio sample conditioned on all previous ones; nonetheless we show that it can be efficiently trained on data with tens of thousands of samples per second of audio. When applied to text-to-speech, it yields state-of-the-art performance, with human listeners rating it as significantly more natural sounding than the best parametric and concatenative systems for both English and Mandarin. A single WaveNet can capture the characteristics of many different speakers with equal fidelity, and can switch between them by conditioning on the speaker identity. When trained to model music, we find that it generates novel and often highly realistic musical fragments. We also show that it can be employed as a discriminative model, returning promising results for phoneme recognition.

Long-form chain-of-thought reasoning has become a cornerstone of advanced reasoning in large language models. While recent verification-refinement frameworks have enabled proprietary models to solve Olympiad-level problems, their effectiveness hinges on strong, reliable verification and correction capabilities, which remain fragile in open-weight, smaller-scale models. This work demonstrates that even with weak verification and refinement capabilities on hard tasks, the reasoning limits of such models can be substantially extended through a probabilistic paradigm we call Deep Self-Evolving Reasoning (DSER). We conceptualize iterative reasoning as a Markov chain, where each step represents a stochastic transition in the solution space. The key insight is that convergence to a correct solution is guaranteed as long as the probability of improvement marginally exceeds that of degradation. By running multiple long-horizon, self-evolving processes in parallel, DSER amplifies these small positive tendencies, enabling the model to asymptotically approach correct answers. Empirically, we apply DSER to the DeepSeek-R1-0528-Qwen3-8B model. On the challenging AIME 2024-2025 benchmark, DSER solves 5 out of 9 previously unsolvable problems and boosts overall performance, enabling this compact model to surpass the single-turn accuracy of its 600B-parameter teacher through majority voting. Beyond its immediate utility for test-time scaling, the DSER framework serves to diagnose the fundamental limitations of current open-weight reasoners. By clearly delineating their shortcomings in self-verification, refinement, and stability, our findings establish a clear research agenda for developing next-generation models with powerful, intrinsic self-evolving capabilities.

This work investigates an important phenomenon in centroid-based deep clustering (DC) algorithms: Performance quickly saturates after a period of rapid early gains. Practitioners commonly address early saturation with periodic reclustering, which we demonstrate to be insufficient to address performance plateaus. We call this phenomenon the "reclustering barrier" and empirically show when the reclustering barrier occurs, what its underlying mechanisms are, and how it is possible to Break the Reclustering Barrier with our algorithm BRB. BRB avoids early over-commitment to initial clusterings and enables continuous adaptation to reinitialized clustering targets while remaining conceptually simple. Applying our algorithm to widely-used centroid-based DC algorithms, we show that (1) BRB consistently improves performance across a wide range of clustering benchmarks, (2) BRB enables training from scratch, and (3) BRB performs competitively against state-of-the-art DC algorithms when combined with a contrastive loss. We release our code and pre-trained models at https://github.com/Probabilistic-and-Interactive-ML/breaking-the-reclustering-barrier .

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries (e.g., marginal probabilities). One key challenge is to scale PCs to model large and high-dimensional real-world datasets: we observe that as the number of parameters in PCs increases, their performance immediately plateaus. This phenomenon suggests that the existing optimizers fail to exploit the full expressive power of large PCs. We propose to overcome such bottleneck by latent variable distillation: we leverage the less tractable but more expressive deep generative models to provide extra supervision over the latent variables of PCs. Specifically, we extract information from Transformer-based generative models to assign values to latent variables of PCs, providing guidance to PC optimizers. Experiments on both image and language modeling benchmarks (e.g., ImageNet and WikiText-2) show that latent variable distillation substantially boosts the performance of large PCs compared to their counterparts without latent variable distillation. In particular, on the image modeling benchmarks, PCs achieve competitive performance against some of the widely-used deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and flow-based models, opening up new avenues for tractable generative modeling.

Recently, deep learning-based language models have significantly enhanced text-to-SQL tasks, with promising applications in retrieving patient records within the medical domain. One notable challenge in such applications is discerning unanswerable queries. Through fine-tuning model, we demonstrate the feasibility of converting medical record inquiries into SQL queries. Additionally, we introduce an entropy-based method to identify and filter out unanswerable results. We further enhance result quality by filtering low-confidence SQL through log probability-based distribution, while grammatical and schema errors are mitigated by executing queries on the actual database. We experimentally verified that our method can filter unanswerable questions, which can be widely utilized even when the parameters of the model are not accessible, and that it can be effectively utilized in practice.

Despite extensive progress on image generation, common deep generative model architectures are not easily applied to lossless compression. For example, VAEs suffer from a compression cost overhead due to their latent variables. This overhead can only be partially eliminated with elaborate schemes such as bits-back coding, often resulting in poor single-sample compression rates. To overcome such problems, we establish a new class of tractable lossless compression models that permit efficient encoding and decoding: Probabilistic Circuits (PCs). These are a class of neural networks involving |p| computational units that support efficient marginalization over arbitrary subsets of the D feature dimensions, enabling efficient arithmetic coding. We derive efficient encoding and decoding schemes that both have time complexity O (log(D) cdot |p|), where a naive scheme would have linear costs in D and |p|, making the approach highly scalable. Empirically, our PC-based (de)compression algorithm runs 5-40 times faster than neural compression algorithms that achieve similar bitrates. By scaling up the traditional PC structure learning pipeline, we achieve state-of-the-art results on image datasets such as MNIST. Furthermore, PCs can be naturally integrated with existing neural compression algorithms to improve the performance of these base models on natural image datasets. Our results highlight the potential impact that non-standard learning architectures may have on neural data compression.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection of variational objectives and gradient estimators, which are implemented monolithically (and without formal correctness arguments) in PPL backends. In this paper, we propose a more modular approach to supporting variational inference in PPLs, based on compositional program transformation. In our approach, variational objectives are expressed as programs, that may employ first-class constructs for computing densities of and expected values under user-defined models and variational families. We then transform these programs systematically into unbiased gradient estimators for optimizing the objectives they define. Our design enables modular reasoning about many interacting concerns, including automatic differentiation, density accumulation, tracing, and the application of unbiased gradient estimation strategies. Additionally, relative to existing support for VI in PPLs, our design increases expressiveness along three axes: (1) it supports an open-ended set of user-defined variational objectives, rather than a fixed menu of options; (2) it supports a combinatorial space of gradient estimation strategies, many not automated by today's PPLs; and (3) it supports a broader class of models and variational families, because it supports constructs for approximate marginalization and normalization (previously introduced only for Monte Carlo inference). We implement our approach in an extension to the Gen probabilistic programming system (genjax.vi, implemented in JAX), and evaluate on several deep generative modeling tasks, showing minimal performance overhead vs. hand-coded implementations and performance competitive with well-established open-source PPLs.

This paper introduces the Univariate Gaussian Mixture Model Neural Network (uGMM-NN), a novel neural architecture that embeds probabilistic reasoning directly into the computational units of deep networks. Unlike traditional neurons, which apply weighted sums followed by fixed nonlinearities, each uGMM-NN node parameterizes its activations as a univariate Gaussian mixture, with learnable means, variances, and mixing coefficients. This design enables richer representations by capturing multimodality and uncertainty at the level of individual neurons, while retaining the scalability of standard feedforward networks. We demonstrate that uGMM-NN can achieve competitive discriminative performance compared to conventional multilayer perceptrons, while additionally offering a probabilistic interpretation of activations. The proposed framework provides a foundation for integrating uncertainty-aware components into modern neural architectures, opening new directions for both discriminative and generative modeling.

The field of multi-object tracking has recently seen a renewed interest in the good old schema of tracking-by-detection, as its simplicity and strong priors spare it from the complex design and painful babysitting of tracking-by-attention approaches. In view of this, we aim at extending tracking-by-detection to multi-modal settings, where a comprehensive cost has to be computed from heterogeneous information e.g., 2D motion cues, visual appearance, and pose estimates. More precisely, we follow a case study where a rough estimate of 3D information is also available and must be merged with other traditional metrics (e.g., the IoU). To achieve that, recent approaches resort to either simple rules or complex heuristics to balance the contribution of each cost. However, i) they require careful tuning of tailored hyperparameters on a hold-out set, and ii) they imply these costs to be independent, which does not hold in reality. We address these issues by building upon an elegant probabilistic formulation, which considers the cost of a candidate association as the negative log-likelihood yielded by a deep density estimator, trained to model the conditional joint probability distribution of correct associations. Our experiments, conducted on both simulated and real benchmarks, show that our approach consistently enhances the performance of several tracking-by-detection algorithms.

We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to treat collocation grids probabilistically as random variables to be marginalised out. Adapting this spatial statistics view, we solve forward and inverse problems for parametric PDEs in a way that leads to the construction of Gaussian process models of solution fields. The implementation of these random grids poses a unique set of challenges for inverse physics informed deep learning frameworks and we propose a new architecture called Grid Invariant Convolutional Networks (GICNets) to overcome these challenges. We further show how to incorporate noisy data in a principled manner into our physics informed model to improve predictions for problems where data may be available but whose measurement location does not coincide with any fixed mesh or grid. The proposed method is tested on a nonlinear Poisson problem, Burgers equation, and Navier-Stokes equations, and we provide extensive numerical comparisons. We demonstrate significant computational advantages over current physics informed neural learning methods for parametric PDEs while improving the predictive capabilities and flexibility of these models.

While automatic monitoring and coaching of exercises are showing encouraging results in non-medical applications, they still have limitations such as errors and limited use contexts. To allow the development and assessment of physical rehabilitation by an intelligent tutoring system, we identify in this article four challenges to address and propose a medical dataset of clinical patients carrying out low back-pain rehabilitation exercises. The dataset includes 3D Kinect skeleton positions and orientations, RGB videos, 2D skeleton data, and medical annotations to assess the correctness, and error classification and localisation of body part and timespan. Along this dataset, we perform a complete research path, from data collection to processing, and finally a small benchmark. We evaluated on the dataset two baseline movement recognition algorithms, pertaining to two different approaches: the probabilistic approach with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and the deep learning approach with a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM). This dataset is valuable because it includes rehabilitation relevant motions in a clinical setting with patients in their rehabilitation program, using a cost-effective, portable, and convenient sensor, and because it shows the potential for improvement on these challenges.

Despite rapid progress in Visual question answering (VQA), existing datasets and models mainly focus on testing reasoning in 2D. However, it is important that VQA models also understand the 3D structure of visual scenes, for example to support tasks like navigation or manipulation. This includes an understanding of the 3D object pose, their parts and occlusions. In this work, we introduce the task of 3D-aware VQA, which focuses on challenging questions that require a compositional reasoning over the 3D structure of visual scenes. We address 3D-aware VQA from both the dataset and the model perspective. First, we introduce Super-CLEVR-3D, a compositional reasoning dataset that contains questions about object parts, their 3D poses, and occlusions. Second, we propose PO3D-VQA, a 3D-aware VQA model that marries two powerful ideas: probabilistic neural symbolic program execution for reasoning and deep neural networks with 3D generative representations of objects for robust visual recognition. Our experimental results show our model PO3D-VQA outperforms existing methods significantly, but we still observe a significant performance gap compared to 2D VQA benchmarks, indicating that 3D-aware VQA remains an important open research area.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

We propose PD-GAN, a probabilistic diverse GAN for image inpainting. Given an input image with arbitrary hole regions, PD-GAN produces multiple inpainting results with diverse and visually realistic content. Our PD-GAN is built upon a vanilla GAN which generates images based on random noise. During image generation, we modulate deep features of input random noise from coarse-to-fine by injecting an initially restored image and the hole regions in multiple scales. We argue that during hole filling, the pixels near the hole boundary should be more deterministic (i.e., with higher probability trusting the context and initially restored image to create natural inpainting boundary), while those pixels lie in the center of the hole should enjoy more degrees of freedom (i.e., more likely to depend on the random noise for enhancing diversity). To this end, we propose spatially probabilistic diversity normalization (SPDNorm) inside the modulation to model the probability of generating a pixel conditioned on the context information. SPDNorm dynamically balances the realism and diversity inside the hole region, making the generated content more diverse towards the hole center and resemble neighboring image content more towards the hole boundary. Meanwhile, we propose a perceptual diversity loss to further empower PD-GAN for diverse content generation. Experiments on benchmark datasets including CelebA-HQ, Places2 and Paris Street View indicate that PD-GAN is effective for diverse and visually realistic image restoration.

Parallel neurosymbolic architectures have been applied effectively in NLP by distilling knowledge from a logic theory into a deep model.However, prior art faces several limitations including supporting restricted forms of logic theories and relying on the assumption of independence between the logic and the deep network. We present Concordia, a framework overcoming the limitations of prior art. Concordia is agnostic both to the deep network and the logic theory offering support for a wide range of probabilistic theories. Our framework can support supervised training of both components and unsupervised training of the neural component. Concordia has been successfully applied to tasks beyond NLP and data classification, improving the accuracy of state-of-the-art on collective activity detection, entity linking and recommendation tasks.