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Dec 29

Risk forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory Mixture Density Networks

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 2

Topologically faithful image segmentation via induced matching of persistence barcodes

Image segmentation is a largely researched field where neural networks find vast applications in many facets of technology. Some of the most popular approaches to train segmentation networks employ loss functions optimizing pixel-overlap, an objective that is insufficient for many segmentation tasks. In recent years, their limitations fueled a growing interest in topology-aware methods, which aim to recover the correct topology of the segmented structures. However, so far, none of the existing approaches achieve a spatially correct matching between the topological features of ground truth and prediction. In this work, we propose the first topologically and feature-wise accurate metric and loss function for supervised image segmentation, which we term Betti matching. We show how induced matchings guarantee the spatially correct matching between barcodes in a segmentation setting. Furthermore, we propose an efficient algorithm to compute the Betti matching of images. We show that the Betti matching error is an interpretable metric to evaluate the topological correctness of segmentations, which is more sensitive than the well-established Betti number error. Moreover, the differentiability of the Betti matching loss enables its use as a loss function. It improves the topological performance of segmentation networks across six diverse datasets while preserving the volumetric performance. Our code is available in https://github.com/nstucki/Betti-matching.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 28, 2022

Between welcome culture and border fence. A dataset on the European refugee crisis in German newspaper reports

Newspaper reports provide a rich source of information on the unfolding of public debate on specific policy fields that can serve as basis for inquiry in political science. Such debates are often triggered by critical events, which attract public attention and incite the reactions of political actors: crisis sparks the debate. However, due to the challenges of reliable annotation and modeling, few large-scale datasets with high-quality annotation are available. This paper introduces DebateNet2.0, which traces the political discourse on the European refugee crisis in the German quality newspaper taz during the year 2015. The core units of our annotation are political claims (requests for specific actions to be taken within the policy field) and the actors who make them (politicians, parties, etc.). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we document and release DebateNet2.0 along with its companion R package, mardyR, guiding the reader through the practical and conceptual issues related to the annotation of policy debates in newspapers. Second, we outline and apply a Discourse Network Analysis (DNA) to DebateNet2.0, comparing two crucial moments of the policy debate on the 'refugee crisis': the migration flux through the Mediterranean in April/May and the one along the Balkan route in September/October. Besides the released resources and the case-study, our contribution is also methodological: we talk the reader through the steps from a newspaper article to a discourse network, demonstrating that there is not just one discourse network for the German migration debate, but multiple ones, depending on the topic of interest (political actors, policy fields, time spans).

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 19, 2021

MathDial: A Dialogue Tutoring Dataset with Rich Pedagogical Properties Grounded in Math Reasoning Problems

While automatic dialogue tutors hold great potential in making education personalized and more accessible, research on such systems has been hampered by a lack of sufficiently large and high-quality datasets. Collecting such datasets remains challenging, as recording tutoring sessions raises privacy concerns and crowdsourcing leads to insufficient data quality. To address this, we propose a framework to generate such dialogues by pairing human teachers with a Large Language Model (LLM) prompted to represent common student errors. We describe how we use this framework to collect MathDial, a dataset of 3k one-to-one teacher-student tutoring dialogues grounded in multi-step math reasoning problems. While models like GPT-3 are good problem solvers, they fail at tutoring because they generate factually incorrect feedback or are prone to revealing solutions to students too early. To overcome this, we let teachers provide learning opportunities to students by guiding them using various scaffolding questions according to a taxonomy of teacher moves. We demonstrate MathDial and its extensive annotations can be used to finetune models to be more effective tutors (and not just solvers). We confirm this by automatic and human evaluation, notably in an interactive setting that measures the trade-off between student solving success and telling solutions. The dataset is released publicly.

  • 7 authors
·
May 23, 2023

ReVLA: Reverting Visual Domain Limitation of Robotic Foundation Models

Recent progress in large language models and access to large-scale robotic datasets has sparked a paradigm shift in robotics models transforming them into generalists able to adapt to various tasks, scenes, and robot modalities. A large step for the community are open Vision Language Action models which showcase strong performance in a wide variety of tasks. In this work, we study the visual generalization capabilities of three existing robotic foundation models, and propose a corresponding evaluation framework. Our study shows that the existing models do not exhibit robustness to visual out-of-domain scenarios. This is potentially caused by limited variations in the training data and/or catastrophic forgetting, leading to domain limitations in the vision foundation models. We further explore OpenVLA, which uses two pre-trained vision foundation models and is, therefore, expected to generalize to out-of-domain experiments. However, we showcase catastrophic forgetting by DINO-v2 in OpenVLA through its failure to fulfill the task of depth regression. To overcome the aforementioned issue of visual catastrophic forgetting, we propose a gradual backbone reversal approach founded on model merging. This enables OpenVLA which requires the adaptation of the visual backbones during initial training -- to regain its visual generalization ability. Regaining this capability enables our ReVLA model to improve over OpenVLA by a factor of 77% and 66% for grasping and lifting in visual OOD tasks .

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 23, 2024

Holistic Understanding of 3D Scenes as Universal Scene Description

3D scene understanding is a long-standing challenge in computer vision and a key component in enabling mixed reality, wearable computing, and embodied AI. Providing a solution to these applications requires a multifaceted approach that covers scene-centric, object-centric, as well as interaction-centric capabilities. While there exist numerous datasets approaching the former two problems, the task of understanding interactable and articulated objects is underrepresented and only partly covered by current works. In this work, we address this shortcoming and introduce (1) an expertly curated dataset in the Universal Scene Description (USD) format, featuring high-quality manual annotations, for instance, segmentation and articulation on 280 indoor scenes; (2) a learning-based model together with a novel baseline capable of predicting part segmentation along with a full specification of motion attributes, including motion type, articulated and interactable parts, and motion parameters; (3) a benchmark serving to compare upcoming methods for the task at hand. Overall, our dataset provides 8 types of annotations - object and part segmentations, motion types, movable and interactable parts, motion parameters, connectivity, and object mass annotations. With its broad and high-quality annotations, the data provides the basis for holistic 3D scene understanding models. All data is provided in the USD format, allowing interoperability and easy integration with downstream tasks. We provide open access to our dataset, benchmark, and method's source code.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 2, 2024

Optimizing CLIP Models for Image Retrieval with Maintained Joint-Embedding Alignment

Contrastive Language and Image Pairing (CLIP), a transformative method in multimedia retrieval, typically trains two neural networks concurrently to generate joint embeddings for text and image pairs. However, when applied directly, these models often struggle to differentiate between visually distinct images that have similar captions, resulting in suboptimal performance for image-based similarity searches. This paper addresses the challenge of optimizing CLIP models for various image-based similarity search scenarios, while maintaining their effectiveness in text-based search tasks such as text-to-image retrieval and zero-shot classification. We propose and evaluate two novel methods aimed at refining the retrieval capabilities of CLIP without compromising the alignment between text and image embeddings. The first method involves a sequential fine-tuning process: initially optimizing the image encoder for more precise image retrieval and subsequently realigning the text encoder to these optimized image embeddings. The second approach integrates pseudo-captions during the retrieval-optimization phase to foster direct alignment within the embedding space. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that these methods enhance CLIP's performance on various benchmarks, including image retrieval, k-NN classification, and zero-shot text-based classification, while maintaining robustness in text-to-image retrieval. Our optimized models permit maintaining a single embedding per image, significantly simplifying the infrastructure needed for large-scale multi-modal similarity search systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 3, 2024

Large Pre-trained Language Models Contain Human-like Biases of What is Right and Wrong to Do

Artificial writing is permeating our lives due to recent advances in large-scale, transformer-based language models (LMs) such as BERT, its variants, GPT-2/3, and others. Using them as pre-trained models and fine-tuning them for specific tasks, researchers have extended state of the art for many NLP tasks and shown that they capture not only linguistic knowledge but also retain general knowledge implicitly present in the data. Unfortunately, LMs trained on unfiltered text corpora suffer from degenerated and biased behaviour. While this is well established, we show that recent LMs also contain human-like biases of what is right and wrong to do, some form of ethical and moral norms of the society -- they bring a "moral direction" to surface. That is, we show that these norms can be captured geometrically by a direction, which can be computed, e.g., by a PCA, in the embedding space, reflecting well the agreement of phrases to social norms implicitly expressed in the training texts and providing a path for attenuating or even preventing toxic degeneration in LMs. Being able to rate the (non-)normativity of arbitrary phrases without explicitly training the LM for this task, we demonstrate the capabilities of the "moral direction" for guiding (even other) LMs towards producing normative text and showcase it on RealToxicityPrompts testbed, preventing the neural toxic degeneration in GPT-2.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 8, 2021

SPEAR-1: Scaling Beyond Robot Demonstrations via 3D Understanding

Robotic Foundation Models (RFMs) hold great promise as generalist, end-to-end systems for robot control. Yet their ability to generalize across new environments, tasks, and embodiments remains limited. We argue that a major bottleneck lies in their foundations: most RFMs are built by fine-tuning internet-pretrained Vision-Language Models (VLMs). However, these VLMs are trained on 2D image-language tasks and lack the 3D spatial reasoning inherently required for embodied control in the 3D world. Bridging this gap directly with large-scale robotic data is costly and difficult to scale. Instead, we propose to enrich easy-to-collect non-robotic image data with 3D annotations and enhance a pretrained VLM with 3D understanding capabilities. Following this strategy, we train SPEAR-VLM, a 3D-aware VLM that infers object coordinates in 3D space from a single 2D image. Building on SPEAR-VLM, we introduce our main contribution, ~SPEAR-1: a robotic foundation model that integrates grounded 3D perception with language-instructed embodied control. Trained on sim45M frames from 24 Open X-Embodiment datasets, SPEAR-1 outperforms or matches state-of-the-art models such as π_0-FAST and π_{0.5}, while it uses 20times fewer robot demonstrations. This carefully-engineered training strategy unlocks new VLM capabilities and as a consequence boosts the reliability of embodied control beyond what is achievable with only robotic data. We make our model weights and 3D-annotated datasets publicly available.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 21

Quantum Doubly Stochastic Transformers

At the core of the Transformer, the Softmax normalizes the attention matrix to be right stochastic. Previous research has shown that this often destabilizes training and that enforcing the attention matrix to be doubly stochastic (through Sinkhorn's algorithm) consistently improves performance across different tasks, domains and Transformer flavors. However, Sinkhorn's algorithm is iterative, approximative, non-parametric and thus inflexible w.r.t. the obtained doubly stochastic matrix (DSM). Recently, it has been proven that DSMs can be obtained with a parametric quantum circuit, yielding a novel quantum inductive bias for DSMs with no known classical analogue. Motivated by this, we demonstrate the feasibility of a hybrid classical-quantum doubly stochastic Transformer (QDSFormer) that replaces the Softmax in the self-attention layer with a variational quantum circuit. We study the expressive power of the circuit and find that it yields more diverse DSMs that better preserve information than classical operators. Across multiple small-scale object recognition tasks, we find that our QDSFormer consistently surpasses both a standard Vision Transformer and other doubly stochastic Transformers. Beyond the established Sinkformer, this comparison includes a novel quantum-inspired doubly stochastic Transformer (based on QR decomposition) that can be of independent interest. The QDSFormer also shows improved training stability and lower performance variation suggesting that it may mitigate the notoriously unstable training of ViTs on small-scale data.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 22

Benchmarking the CoW with the TopCoW Challenge: Topology-Aware Anatomical Segmentation of the Circle of Willis for CTA and MRA

The Circle of Willis (CoW) is an important network of arteries connecting major circulations of the brain. Its vascular architecture is believed to affect the risk, severity, and clinical outcome of serious neurovascular diseases. However, characterizing the highly variable CoW anatomy is still a manual and time-consuming expert task. The CoW is usually imaged by two non-invasive angiographic imaging modalities, magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and computed tomography angiography (CTA), but there exist limited datasets with annotations on CoW anatomy, especially for CTA. Therefore, we organized the TopCoW challenge with the release of an annotated CoW dataset. The TopCoW dataset is the first public dataset with voxel-level annotations for 13 CoW vessel components, enabled by virtual reality technology. It is also the first large dataset using 200 pairs of MRA and CTA from the same patients. As part of the benchmark, we invited submissions worldwide and attracted over 250 registered participants from six continents. The submissions were evaluated on both internal and external test datasets of 226 scans from over five centers. The top performing teams achieved over 90% Dice scores at segmenting the CoW components, over 80% F1 scores at detecting key CoW components, and over 70% balanced accuracy at classifying CoW variants for nearly all test sets. The best algorithms also showed clinical potential in classifying fetal-type posterior cerebral artery and locating aneurysms with CoW anatomy. TopCoW demonstrated the utility and versatility of CoW segmentation algorithms for a wide range of downstream clinical applications with explainability. The annotated datasets and best performing algorithms have been released as public Zenodo records to foster further methodological development and clinical tool building.

  • 113 authors
·
Dec 29, 2023